What is "The Fourth Turning" and are we in it? (03-20-2025--Hour3)

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[00:00:30] And it's all suffused with this image of Armageddon and violence, meaning that if the wrong side wins, it's all over for America. And I think there's a lot of worry in America about the increasing imagery of violence and dead ends, you know, for our democracy.

[00:00:51] That is Neil Howe. He, along with William Strauss, wrote a book in 1997, 1997, called The Fourth Turning, what the cycles of history tell us about America's next rendezvous with destiny.

[00:01:12] It is a work of nonfiction. It combines elements of history, political science, sociology, and philosophy. It deals with the link between the generational theory that was popularized by these two authors and their previous research into a thing called saeculums.

[00:01:40] Saeculums, which is a unit of time, roughly the equivalent of a long human life. So it's 80 to 100 years. That 80 to 100 year chunk, and it's not exactly 80 to 100, but it's somewhere in that range. That chunk is then divided into four parts. And each of those parts they call a turning.

[00:02:09] The first turning is the high. The second turning, they dubbed the awakening. The third turning is the unraveling. And the fourth turning is crisis. And the analogy that they have given, and William Strauss, one of the authors, he passed away years ago. But Neil Howe is still alive.

[00:02:36] And if you are interested in going down this rabbit hole and learning more about his work and such, and I'll maybe try to get him on the show at some point. He has his own podcast. He's got a new book out pretty recently, I want to say. I think it's called The Fourth Turning is Here. And so he does a lot of podcast interviews and stuff. So he's all over the place. So you can find out a lot of the stuff. He's got a website called Demography.

[00:03:06] Sorry, Demography. Yeah, Demography. Demography. There you go. Demography Unplugged. Demography Unplugged is his website. You can find him on Twitter, formerly known as X. How Generation. All one word. At How Generation. H-O-W-E. And so these four seasons, they have analogized to, or the four turnings rather, they've analogized to the four seasons. Not the band.

[00:03:34] So the high is spring. The awakening is summer. And the unraveling is fall. And the crisis is winter. And by the way, this is also a similar theory in economics. Have you ever heard of like the green shoots? Or how about this one? Creative destruction in capitalism. Right? What do you look up what Doge is doing?

[00:04:05] Right? Trying to clear out the bureaucracy, the underbrush of government that has grown up over the years because it has not been removed. Right? Right? So the tending to these man-made institutions. But also this occurs in nature as well. And he talks about this, you know, in the terms of just as fire or wildfires restore the forest after it destroys it. Right?

[00:04:33] And rivers have to flood every now and again. Right? And from an ecosystem perspective, these things are necessary. And if you take a step back, as I was going through this over the last week, I was reading through a lot of the stuff on the fourth turning.

[00:04:52] It's hard for me not to see the imprint of the divine on this kind of a cycle because it is replicated in all of these various places. You see it all the time. It's the same thing with the generations, the human race. That it, you know, the whole planet is repopulated after about 100 years. Right? Because everybody who was born has now died and you have a whole new population.

[00:05:20] And by the way, these four turnings are impacted by but also impact the people who are born in that time. And so the high correlates in American history to the World War II generation. The awakening is, that's the summer. The awakening is the baby boomers. The unraveling is Generation X.

[00:05:49] And crisis is now. So the millennials and the Gen Zers. And they break off into these periods of about 20 to 25 years. These four dramatic shifts in the mood of the nation. The high is marked by an upbeat mood, conformity, trust in institutions.

[00:06:16] An awakening is marked by increased spirituality and rebellion. There's more of a focus there than on individuals. And that's the boomers. Right? They rejected. What was the movie where it was like all black and white and it was like this perfect little town? Was that? It wasn't Smallville. Pleasantville, I think was the name of the movie. Right? And it's all in black and white.

[00:06:41] And then people like break free of the institutions that govern. And they like reject. Oh, it's the squares, the mom and dad's institutions and whatever. Like, I want individual freedom. I want to set my own course. I reject these institutions, the patriarchy and whatever. Right? And so there's this awakening. And then the unraveling. In which the institutions become distrusted. And individualism is strong.

[00:07:11] And that's the generation I grew up in. The unraveling. Where we were like almost literally thrown out. Left to our own devices. Latchkey kids and such. Right? And there became this hyper focus on the individual versus the institutions. Which then leads to the crisis. In which a revolution of some type occurs. And the old order is destroyed.

[00:07:41] A new order emerges during the high era that follows again. So springtime follows. And then the four turnings repeat. In that same order. The premise of the generational theory from Strauss and Howe. Is that history just like nature and just like human life is cyclical and seasonal. Think about the human life. Childhood. That's your high.

[00:08:11] Awakening. Young adulthood. I need to find myself. Midlife. Midlife crisis. The unraveling. And then elderhood. When your body starts breaking down. Each new generation is born during one of the four turnings of the saquilum. This hundred year period. Eighty to hundred year period. And that causes that generation to have a specific archetype. Or a specific persona.

[00:08:38] That is shaped by the mood of the nation at that time. And what they identify in broad terms. Four generational archetypes. And these occur I think in. In each of the. In each of the periods. Each of the turnings. The prophets. They call them prophets born during a high. The nomads born during the awakening. The heroes born during the unraveling. And the artists born during the crisis.

[00:09:07] The American high. And by the way. They track this cycle. All the way back through our founders. It repeats. Every eighty to a hundred years. We have the crisis period. And in American history. That has meant war. Every time. And the crisis. Is punctuated by some type of conflict. Whether it's internal. External. Or a combination of both. And there is no guarantee.

[00:09:36] That we emerge. Successfully. There's no. There's no guarantee. That the high. Afterwards. Is going to be. America as we know it. All right. So spring is here. A time of renewal. And celebrations. You got graduations. Weddings. Anniversaries. And the special days. For mom and dad. Your family's making memories. That are going to last a lifetime. But let me ask you. Are all of those. Treasured moments. From days gone by. Are they hidden away. On old VCR tapes.

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[00:11:04] Tell us about America's next rendezvous with destiny. Written in 1997. By William Strauss and Neil Howe. It explores how history moves in cycles. It shows how each generation. Responds to the challenges of its time. And that creates patterns. That these two authors say repeat. Over decades.

[00:11:32] And they chart all of this out. Through American history. They also apply it. Over in British history. And in other countries as well. And they are confident. That this. Is observable. In virtually all societies. Um. The fourth turning. Which is what Neil Howe. Says we are in. Right now. The fourth turning. Is the quote crisis.

[00:12:03] Or the winter season. Each of these. Last 80. Or each of these are like 20 to 25 years a piece. Each of the four seasons. And so they basically layer on. Like sort of like the human lifespan. And. Each phase has its own mood. Its own challenges. That affects how generations interact. With their. Their government. With their. Fellow citizens. With other countries. And how they respond to crises. Because it is the crisis.

[00:12:32] That brings the people together. In a. In a more cohesive. Longer lasting way. Than they were. During the last two cycles. The last two. Turning's. The unraveling. And the. And the awakening. So Neil Howe. Appeared recently. About six months ago. On a podcast. Hosted by David Lynn. And. He was asked. By David Lynn. What are some of the signs. That the fourth turning.

[00:13:02] The crisis. Is here. We see a. A growing pessimism. About. In most high income countries. And in fact. In a lot of emerging market countries. About. The long-term future. Well. People in their own lives. And people thinking about their kids lives. And that this is a striking decline. It. It. It. It's a greater pessimism. Than. And I've looked back at polls. Going all the way back to the.

[00:13:31] Late 1970s. Which in America. Was a time of great pessimism. Um. And yet. This. This exceeds that. And there. There were reasons. Why people were very pessimistic. In the late 70s. Uh. This exceeds that. And particularly. The sense of long-term. Wrong track. Right. You just. All the polls indicate that. And along with that. You see this growing trend. Toward. Um. Uh. Populism. Uh. Around the world.

[00:14:01] In politics. Often combined with a certain sort of. Ethnocentric. Authoritarian. Leadership model. I'm thinking particularly in. In East Asia. South Asia. But you know. Look at Europe. Look at South America. Uh. Look at. The United States. Right. And. These are. Both facets. Of the same generational trend. We've seen it. Again and again. This is this long. 80 year cycle. We're talking about. Right. And. Uh. And.

[00:14:30] What comes at the end of that. Is this time of. Crisis. Where we reinvent. The system. A system. Which has become very sclerotic. And. Uh. Unresponsive. Because of all the time. This past. Since the last crisis. Right. So. He argues. That. When you look at the historical records. Violence. And. Populism. Often. Rise. In tandem. They rise together. And.

[00:15:01] They say. You know. He says. Pat. You go past a certain point. And then there is no going back. In the crisis phase. Globalism. Starts declining. In the third. Which is the unraveling. Which is Gen X. Globalism. Starts to decline. Populism. Rises. In the fourth. A greater. A greater. Internally. A greater. Like. Make America great. For example. We don't need all of these other countries. We got to focus on ourselves.

[00:15:31] And stuff. I'm not saying any of this. To disparage. I'm pointing out. This is his theory. And. The events. Around us. Seem to be lining up. With what their theory. Predicts. And. In case you are. Interested. They did make. A series of predictions. Right. The biggest ones. That there would be a major financial crisis. That occurred sometime. In the 2000s.

[00:16:01] Or 2010s. There would be a pandemic. A Tea Party movement. That they literally called. A Tea Party movement. Aimed at limiting the federal debt. Would arise. And Russia would invade. A former Soviet state. They predicted all of that. In 97. And then of course. The fifth prediction is. War. In the crisis. Here's a great idea. How about making an escape.

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[00:17:29] And they have pet friendly accommodations. Call or text. 828-367-7068. Or check out all there is to offer. At cabinsofashville.com. And make memories. That'll last a lifetime. Time. William Strauss. Neil Howe. Generational theory. Or the SHGT. I'm not going to use that as an acronym. But anyway. It labels the third turning as the unraveling.

[00:17:56] This is the period that follows an era of high civic order. Which is the second turning. So you have a lot of civic order. And it precedes the crisis. They say that the fourth turning. The crisis phase that we are in now. Began in about 2008. With the global financial crisis. The unraveling began. In the mid to late 80s. And the unraveling.

[00:18:27] Is punctuated by characteristics. Like individualism over collectivism. Yeah. That's me. Society emphasizes personal autonomy. And self-expression over collective unity. Weak institutions. Public trust in large institutions. Erodes. And these institutions often fail to inspire confidence. Or seem capable of addressing major societal issues. Cultural fragmentation.

[00:18:56] The unraveling is marked by cultural division. Political polarization. A general sense of disunity. The unraveling. The third turning. Is also punctuated by. Or characterized by decadence. And excess. The society may focus more on material wealth. Entertainment. And consumption. Sometimes leading to excess. And neglect. Of deeper values. Or community bonds. And decreasing social order.

[00:19:26] Unlike the cooperative spirit. Of the second turning. The unraveling tends to see. Increased skepticism. And division. Among different segments. Of society. That's the third turning. The author. Of the book. Neil Howe. The demographer. He says. We are in the fourth turning. The crisis. That began. In 2008. He says it will last till about 2030.

[00:19:55] The fourth turning. Is a cycle that tracks. With the aging. He says. Of populations. The bottom line is. Is that you eventually reach a time. Where absolutely. No one alive. Remembers. How institutions. Actually dealt with crisis. Right. Okay. And it's at that time. Where next. The crisis is again. Most likely. And that is. That is absolutely. A pattern of history. And that was part of the whole point. Of the book. Is to see how that works.

[00:20:24] And this is why I talk about different types of generations. You know. Why we have. Boomer like generations born right after a crisis. You know. Usually coming of age. You know. Storming against the. The strong institutions built by their parents. You know. Often their war winning fathers. And. How after that. The system disintegrates. Right. We call this the unraveling. We become a much more individualistic society. We have a we have it find it very difficult.

[00:20:54] To respond cohesively and collectively. To collective problems. And ultimately that leads us into the fourth turning. Which is where we have to reinvent ourselves. Under an urgent threat. And usually that threat involves organized conflict. Right. And again. The types of organized conflict. Can be internal. Or external. And it can be both. At the same time.

[00:21:25] So I mentioned the five predictions. Four of which came true. The fifth. Is a nullification crisis. That they predicted. And. He actually cited. Immigration. As one of these. As one of the areas where this might occur. And at the time. This was a couple years ago. He talked about. Biden versus. The state of Texas. In trying. Remember when Texas. Put up the. The barricades. Along the Rio Grande.

[00:21:55] To try to. Stop the flow of illegal immigration. So that wasn't quite a nullification. Argument. But. It was. Symptomatic of the. Larger point. Which is that you. Eventually have. Local. Or state jurisdictions. That refuse to comply. With. The federal. Laws. This is what I see occurring. With. Gary. Not my fault. McFadden.

[00:22:24] This kind of mentality. That. We're not going to follow your law. Because we disagree with it. Same thing happened. This is the mayor. Of. Boston. Michelle. In her state of the city address. We stand with immigrants. You belong here. Somos una ciudad de inmigrantes. Boston. Doesn't. Back. Down. All right. So what is she arguing for? Nullification.

[00:22:55] We are not backing down. And how. Cited. Like the Texas example. But there are other ways that this manifests. But the nullification crisis. Is. The fifth prediction that they made. Nullification. Is an old. Theory. Which really dates back to the original constitution. And it was there by the way. With the anti-federalists. Who were arguing against. Hamilton. Madison. And Jay. Right. The federalist papers. They were arguing that.

[00:23:25] The state should have more autonomy. They should preserve more autonomy. If there was a. A law. Or an edict. By the federal government. That an individual state. Really did not want. It should be able to. Excuse itself from it. Right. I mean. This is the idea. That we are a truly. A federal republic. To have their own maneuvering room. You know. We came together as separate nations. So to speak. To form the United States. And this was actually promulgated. By.

[00:23:55] By both. Jefferson. And Madison. In the Virginia and Kentucky resolutions. In response to what John Adams did. With the alien sedition laws. This is in the late 1790s. And it came back again and again. In the antebellum area. With Calhoun. And the tariff crisis. And ultimately with the Civil War. Which led us into. I mean. That was the ultimate. And not just nullification. But secession. Right. This is when the states decided to secede. But it has come up.

[00:24:24] Since then. In other words. At what point. Can a state. Decide to opt out. Of certain federal arrangements. Does any of that. Anything that he said in there. Sound familiar. To our time right now. I heard alien and sedition acts. I heard tariffs. Right. I heard states not wanting to comply. It can be immigration. It could be educational issues. Right.

[00:24:55] Men playing on women's teams. And. States not wanting to go along with that. Taxes. Regulation. Right. One of the things. You know. As expressed. You know. Through ordinance and such. I mentioned this at the last hour. At the end of the last hour. That three uptown Charlotte parks. And a section of the Little Sugar Creek Greenway. In Midtown. Will have armed security guards. Starting this summer. To address safety concerns.

[00:25:24] Over increased crime. At urban parks and greenways. Ramere Bearden Park. First Ward Park. Fourth Ward Park. And Kings Drive section. Of the Little Sugar Creek Greenway. Will have dedicated. Armed security personnel. Starting July 1st. According to Greg Klemmer. Of County Parks and Rec. It's the latest move. To increase safety. For park and greenway goers. In areas where there have been. Widely publicized crimes. In recent years. The Charlotte Mecklenburg Police Department. Announced that it was increasing. Its patrols of urban parks.

[00:25:54] Last year. And park officials. Installed signs. To help walkers. And runners. And bikers. Better understand. Where they are. In case they need to report. An emergency. And here's the quote. From Clemmer. From County Parks and Rec. In our urban parks. What we have seen. Is we need more. On the ground people. Physically sitting there. To manage. All the concerns. And issues. That we have. With our. Unhoused population. And youth. Violence. Right.

[00:26:25] The systems. That were built. Decades ago. Are not functioning. Correctly anymore. And people. Have no sense. Of unity. And this gets also. To. The. Concept. Of. Anarcho. Tyranny. Anarchy. And tyranny. Basically. It was a term. Coined by Sam Francis. And then. Sort of. I don't know. Conceptualized further. By Patrick Moynihan.

[00:26:55] And Charles Krauthammer. And. In 1993. Sam Francis. Introduced the concept. In an article. Anarcho. Tyranny. USA. Published. In. Chronicles. A magazine. Of American culture. And he criticized. The government's tendency. To neglect. Enforcement. Of fundamental. Protective laws. Leading to societal. Disorder. Or anarchy. While simultaneously. Imposing. Oppressive regulations. On law abiding. Citizens. A.K.A.

[00:27:25] Tyranny. Right. He illustrated. The paradox. By highlighting. Instances. Where authorities. Focus. On minor infractions. Like seatbelt. Violations. While failing. To address. More serious. Criminal activities. And that. Undermines. Both public safety. As well as. Individual freedoms. And so. When do people say. You know what? We're out. The social. Contract. Is null and void. That's the nullification. All right.

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[00:28:52] Your subscription then not only helps my podcast. But it also supports Ground News. As they make the media landscape more transparent. Discussing the fourth turning theory. By Strauss and Howe. Strauss has passed away. Howe still alive. He's all over the place on podcasts. So you can definitely find more about him. If you go looking on the YouTube. One of the things he talks about. Is that you never know. What's going to be the. The conflict.

[00:29:22] In the crisis phase. In the fourth turning. As I mentioned. It could be immigration. Education issues. Taxes. Regulations. Whatever. It could be war. Right. But that's. The conflict in American history. Usually is war. Either civil war. Or world war. But it's. Every 80 years or so. It's a. It's a war. But what will happen is. They will not enforce it. Oh. Hang on a second. The administration. He's talking about the nullification crisis. Being the fifth prediction.

[00:29:52] That has not come true yet. But. That is what they predicted in their 1997 book. All of their other predictions. Basically came true. This is the last one. And there would be some storm. Some sort of a nullification crisis. In this phase. But what will happen is. They will not enforce it. The administration will say. Well you must enforce it. And the states will kind of. You know. A number of states will band together. And they say. Well we actually don't.

[00:30:22] And ultimately. You see where this leads. David. Is the states say in effect. We're not going to enforce it. We're here on the ground. We're not going to collect this revenues. Or enforce these regulations. And in effect. The. The. The communication of the federal government. What are you going to do about it? You know. And that then becomes. A standoff of authority. And then if the. If the federal government. Does not enforce its will. Well then of course. The gate is open. Then states can start.

[00:30:51] Doing other things. You know what I mean. And by the way. This came up historically. David. In the. In the civil war. When the states seceded. And this is. You know. They all seceded. They actually formed a confederacy. Even before Abraham Lincoln. Even got into office. We swore in presidents later then. We swore them in. In March. Right. So. That. That. That five months. Everything had already happened. Before he even came into office. And many people came to him.

[00:31:21] And said. Let the south go. Many abolitionists. David. Said to Abraham Lincoln. Let the south go. I mean. They're gone. Now we can actually do all the reforms. That we wanted in the United States. And I think this is going to be. What causes the issue. To escalate. Because it will be very clear. That the president. And. And. And his or her party. Will not be allowed to back down. They can't back down.

[00:31:51] They will lose all credibility. If they back down. So they got to step it up. The other side will step it up. You see how this works. These things never start. Intending to be. A conflict. But they end up as a conflict. Because both sides can't back down. He also added that. Throughout history. He has not seen an example of a peaceful. Secession. Anywhere. So if this is the crisis. Then this is how an internal conflict would arise.

[00:32:21] The. Fourth turning. Brings significant challenges. Outlined as. Economic instability. Political division. And social unrest. However. There also are. Opportunities. Unique opportunities. Rebuilding trust. Because the old system fails. There is a chance to create a new. More trustworthy institution. Innovative. Solutions. It can spark creativity. Because you're trying to combat. Some sort of a crisis.

[00:32:51] And so you. You innovate. Community engagement. Right. People are more likely to come together. To solve problems. That are at a very large scale. And so. It could lead to a new era. Of cooperation. A collapse of existing structures. Which could create chaos. And uncertainty. But it also could lead to a rebirth. Of civic engagement. Engagement. There are some. Positives. The fourth turning.

[00:33:20] Can deeply affect. Society. And culture. And you could have. Increased civic engagement. Right. A shift in values. He says. Every time the fourth turning occurs. Conventional norms. Take hold again. So there's a reversion back. To what historically. You know. Would be a. A conventional norm. And potential for. Conflict. As different groups. Vive for power. And influence. So that's the fourth turning. In a nutshell.

[00:33:51] All right. That'll do it for this episode. Thank you so much for listening. I could not do the show. Without your support. And the support of the businesses. That advertise on the podcast. So if you'd like. Please support them too. And tell them you heard it here. You can also become a patron. At my Patreon page. Or go to. ThePeteCalendarShow.com Again. Thank you so much for listening. And don't break anything. While I'm gone. I'm gone.