Trump pauses tariffs... except on China (04-09-2025--Hour3)

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[00:00:28] The news broke less than 30 minutes ago that Donald Trump is now giving a 90-day pause to all of the tariffs except China. And all the tariffs are going to 10%, a baseline 10%. The market has responded quite positively, shooting up now. It's up 2,600 points, it looks like. Over 40,000.

[00:00:58] Right now. And I find myself, you know, reading, you know, I've got some messages here about it and I'm seeing some of the hot takes that are being promulgated on the social media.

[00:01:16] And it is, as I said at the very beginning of all of this was that I'm going to wait and see, number one, but also number two, if you have faith and trust in Donald Trump, then you're going to, you're going to believe whatever it is that he's saying is the strategy or why we need to do whatever the thing he's doing.

[00:01:39] I mean, not in all cases. I'm just saying on this, but there is a tend to believe, a tendency to believe him because you like him. And I get that. I understand that. I'm not putting people down for that. There are people that hate him and it doesn't matter what he says. They will say he's lying about everything, right? I'm not in either of those camps.

[00:02:02] Okay. I, I'm not in either of those camps. As much as people want me to be in one of those camps, I have a bit of, uh, uh, oppositional defiance disorder going on here. I don't, I, I've had it for a very long time. I don't, I don't, I don't do well with people bossing me around like that, ordering me around and telling me I have to think this way, whatever. I just, I bristle at that. Um, and that's just me.

[00:02:34] So I'm skeptical of these things that I hear and I wonder, you know, why are they doing that? What's the rationale for it? How does this look as it plays out? You know?

[00:02:43] And so now that Trump has reversed course after, and, and this has been, this has been a common pattern we have seen, right? Where, uh, Trump will say something or do something. Everybody rushes to fill the zone, defend the action or speech. And then of course the other side rushes in to fill their zone, telling us how it's the worst ever and how he's a racist or whatever.

[00:03:13] And then you wait a little while and it turns out, oh no, like the left was wrong, but also then Trump reverses himself. And now his defenders are having to fall back to a different position and pretending oftentimes that that was the point the whole time when, when they don't know that they just, they just trust Trump.

[00:03:36] And so if Trump takes this in a certain direction, advances a policy, they rush to defend it. Trump falls back. They rushed to defend that too. They fall back with him because they believe him again, not insulting anybody. I'm not attacking people.

[00:03:56] I'm just saying that it's hard for me to witness this pattern and just go along with it. It's just not in my DNA. So I don't go along with that pattern. So I'm curious to know what changed.

[00:04:09] If Eric Erickson is correct, as I mentioned last hour, that people in Trump world told him last night that Trump had been, uh, he had spoken with a bunch of his, uh, big donors from the business world. And they were urging him to find some sort of an off ramp and that it would likely look like something like, oh, we don't have time to negotiate all of these deals because there's so many countries that want to negotiate the deals.

[00:04:39] And that's why, uh, they're going to have to put a pause on it. And that is precisely what Trump just did. So I find that to be, uh, that that's pretty persuasive evidence that that in fact was the rationale for this. There's another reason. Colonel retired Colonel Kurt Schlichter from townhall.com, a lawyer. He said, I think the tariff pause, except for China was a very smart idea for a reason.

[00:05:11] That the talk show host out in California, Hugh Hewitt has also seen coming. I'm not sure I agree with the legal reasoning, but there is a substantial chance that the courts would have stopped the broad tariffs using the same reasoning that led to the overruling of the Chevron doctrine. For various reasons, I don't think the courts will overrule focused tariffs on China alone.

[00:05:37] So Trump got ahead of it, got dozens of countries to the table and essentially rendered moot a potential precedent that would have stripped him of tariff power. Also, nobody minds that the markets are recovering because that was one of the other arguments that was, uh, that like Senator Rand Paul was making.

[00:06:00] Uh, there were a couple of Republicans that were now, including Tom Tillis from North Carolina that were talking about clawing back this power away from the executive branch and putting it back into the hands of Congress alone because tariffs or taxes, they argue that has to originate in the house. And if the, and I mentioned the Chevron doctrine and coincidentally, I've got a piece here by Jim Rickards, audio that I just played at the end of the last hour.

[00:06:30] And he has a piece over at, um, Yahoo finance where he talks about the Chevron doctrine and the ruling or the rationale at the core of that ruling has the potential to position America as a powerhouse when it comes to various types of industries.

[00:06:58] But because of these bureaucracies, these agencies that have been writing all of these rules and regulations for decades, they have, they have crippled us as a country. And now with the Chevron doctrine overturned by the Supreme court. Now, if Trump does it correctly, right, you could unleash this potential. But I think this is an interesting argument as well.

[00:07:21] That hasn't been the focus of a lot of this debate, which is whether or not the courts would look favorably upon such a sweeping tariff regime. And so what Schlichter is saying is that by now stripping it all down, putting a baseline 10% in, leaving that alone, and then going after China alone, which is really the worst offender here.

[00:07:44] Then it makes it more difficult for that argument to win in court, even though Schlichter says he doesn't think that that, that, that that would win in court, but he recognizes that there's enough of a doubt. I should say that, um, that, that coupled with, you know, the market issue coupled with the, uh, the business leaders coming to Trump, like all of these factors all played a part in it.

[00:08:09] Um, Besant said, uh, today, after they announced this pause, Besant said, this was driven by the president's strategy. This was his strategy all along. You might even say he goaded China into a bad position. They have shown themselves to the world to be the bad actors, and we are willing to cooperate with our allies and with our trading partners who did not retaliate.

[00:08:36] So here again, do you believe Besant? Do you believe that this was the strategy the whole time or not? And I feel like people who, you know, by just by default believe Donald Trump, they will believe this. And people who don't believe Donald Trump will not.

[00:08:59] I would point out one piece of evidence like that we hit Mexico and Canada with some additional tariffs beyond the 10% or whatever. So like, I don't. And they retaliated. So I don't know if that was the standard, but look, focusing the fire on China, I think that is the right move. Absolutely. All right. If you're listening to this show, you know, I try to keep up with all sorts of current events. And I know you do too.

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[00:10:19] Your subscription then not only helps my podcast, but it also supports Ground News as they make the media landscape more transparent. Jeff says, Pete, the egg prices are coming down. The stock market is coming back. Now what do the Democrats have to complain about? That's a fair point. It's a tough spot. Tough spot. Dwayne Patterson, who is the producer of the Hugh Hewitt Show and host of Dwayne's World, the podcast,

[00:10:49] Oh, he also follows me on Twitter. Nice. Okay. He says, people who hate Trump, who will never get Trump, naturally don't understand today. Trump forces the rest of the free world to basically choose China or us. 75 plus countries are choosing us. They are now agreeing to renegotiate trade.

[00:11:12] Inevitably, we'll be better off in every one of these deals, some marginally, but some a lot. The only reason these negotiations are now in line to happen are because of the tariffs. Now that they've committed to deal and we're down to haggling over the price, the tariffs can be suspended in good faith.

[00:11:34] Second, by 75 plus nations basically choosing us over China, the commies are now more isolated. I said the commies. Trump is now going to squeeze them hard. Markets know China decoupling has to happen. They've known it for a while. The transition is well underway. This accelerates it. As for that baseline 10% tariff, consider that a global or consider that a global insurance premium.

[00:12:04] When disaster happens, the world comes to the U.S. for help. 10% for the big guy, you might say. I see. I see what he did there. If China truly is are the ones who play the long game, they'll have to cave soon in order to be a player later. Their economy will not be able to tolerate tariffs ratcheting up higher.

[00:12:26] This whole tariff thing was always a move to deal with China before having to deal with China later anyway, but with a worse hand to play. Chinatown where they don't speak even English in that Chinatown. It's true. He told us then. Kim says if they are treating us unfairly, he needs to stick with it unless behind the scenes they've told him they swear they're going to make it better. I believe him when he says they've come to ask him to please make a deal. Well, that's the reason for the pause.

[00:12:56] So this is what I mean. If you believe in Donald Trump, you will believe that this was the strategy the whole time. And that's fine because I don't know it wasn't. I'm not saying it wasn't. I don't know if it was or was not. So you are free to believe whatever you want to believe on this. But my only request through these many years of radio hosting is do not whiz on my boots and tell me it's raining. That's all. Right. And I'm not saying that's happening right now.

[00:13:25] I'm just that that's my sort of my standard. Right. I don't appreciate people telling me lies. And then when I can see that the thing is not actually true. And again, I don't know that any of this is not actually true. It very well could be. This could have been the play the whole way. And they kept it all under wraps in order to have this moment. That's possible. That is possible. But but nobody knows that nobody on Twitter.

[00:13:55] Right. Nobody in the audience, nobody in the studio, except maybe Isaac. But that's it. Nobody knew. Pete, I feel this is from Trent, who says, Pete, I feel like most of this was to show that the emperor has no clothes. China. Maybe the other tariffs were to bring others to the table. But China was always the goal. But then again, I'm no Trump whisperer. See, and that's perfectly fair. The way Trent frames that. That is perfectly fair. That's not peeing on my boots.

[00:14:25] Like he's just saying, this is what I think might be the case. But I don't know. And that's the thing, I guess, that kind of irks me is people who express certainty about the motivations of others. About a strategy that they had no insight into, but are only looking at it in real time as we are. And people can make, you know, predictions about what could come. They could offer up theories about what happened. Fair enough.

[00:14:55] It's the certainty of the thing. It's all over media, too. You know, it's it's just. I don't know. I just I look at these things in a little bit less certain way, I guess, in my old age. I'm not. I'm not old. But anyway. Timoteo says, I like Mr. Wonderful. Kevin O'Leary, I played his soundbite earlier. But when it comes to China, he has a huge axe to grind that may be as that may be affecting his views on tariffs on China.

[00:15:24] Here is a thought I had last night. As you pointed out early in the tariff situation, wars have started like shooting wars have started with tariffs. Back during the first year of the Biden administration, there was an article that came out making the case that we would be at war with China within 10 years. So the last thing Trump would want to do is push China towards that end. Placing massive tariffs on China might lead to that war unless tariffs are placed on the entire world. So China isn't singled out.

[00:15:53] Now there is a dust up between Trump and Xi Jinping, who, by the way, looks like Winnie the Pooh. Anyway, tariffs can continue to be elevated against China and it will be seen as a conflict of egos between Trump and Winnie the Pooh rather than a prelude to war, even while lowering tariffs on the rest of the world. I would like to think that this was the strategy or it could be that Trump just bit off more than he could show. Yeah, I. I don't know.

[00:16:22] Um, the hellion says, I think Trump could have hedged on both sides. Um, that's possible. Um, Thomas says the mainstream media will not report it, but China is in economic, military and political turmoil. See, I know this Thomas, because I have reported on this. Just last week I was talking about this very thing and you are correct. They are in no place to wage a trade war with us in this country.

[00:16:51] Keep the politicians out of this initiative. They are the source of the problem. The government only knows how to waste our money and knows nothing about negotiating anything. Well, they do know how to break things, Thomas. That's what Russia always told us, right? That's what the, that's what the military does. All right. Kill people and break things. They're pretty good at it. So, um, we should make China's main concern. I'm sorry.

[00:17:14] We should make China's main concern and focus how to feed 1.5 billion Chinese three square meals a day. This would change their focus and slow their expansionism and or maybe even change regimes. That was what, um, remember there was a story from George W. Bush. He talked about meeting with the president. I forget what his name was at the time of China. And they were talking about like, what keeps you up at night?

[00:17:41] Like the big things that are, you know, that are weighing on your mind as this, you know, leader of this large nation. And he said, you know, finding like a million jobs a month for my people. Like, that's the big thing. Cause if people aren't working, they're not eating, you know? All right. So spring is here, a time of renewal and celebrations. You got graduations, weddings, anniversaries, and the special days for mom and dad. Your family's making memories that are going to last a lifetime.

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[00:19:07] The co-founder of Yimby Democrats. Yimby means yes, in my backyard. So this is, I guess, like a pro-growth Democrat. So basically a unicorn. And his name is Armand Domoluski. And he says, call me crazy, but I think the markets are underreacting to what is effectively an immediate cessation of trade between the two largest economies on the planet. Yeah, I could see that.

[00:19:36] I mean, it's... Uh... It's not really... Look, it's not about the trade war or the tariffs or anything like that. It's about the friends we made along the way. Okay? Jim Rickards. I mentioned him earlier. Played a couple of his soundbites from an appearance he had on the podcast called Triggernometry. But he had a piece over at Yahoo Finance the other day. And... That I happened upon while I was doing research about this guy. And...

[00:20:08] He says, have we been lied to? America was never broke. He says, the American public has long been told that the nation is bankrupt. But according to former U.S. intelligence advisor and economic strategist Jim Rickards, the truth is far more complicated and far more hopeful. He says, America is anything but broke.

[00:20:33] And if you understand what's bound to happen next, you could watch your own net worth soar in the years ahead. As an aside, let me point out, I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. I'm just reading a story out of Yahoo Finance. Okay? Rickards, who has advised the CIA, the Pentagon, and the U.S. Treasury,

[00:20:55] claims that the government has been sitting on an immense, underutilized national asset for over a century. One that could now be tapped for the first time in generations. It is due to the recent dismantling of the Chevron Doctrine, a legal precedent that empowered federal agencies to override courts and enact sweeping regulations.

[00:21:21] With its reversal by the Supreme Court, control is shifting away from bureaucrats and back towards constitutional and state-level authority. Rickards says, quote,

[00:21:45] Now, for the first time in half a century, we can go get our resources. Rickards says the legal reversal could signal the beginning of a massive realignment, one that restores access to vast federal resources previously locked behind environmental red tape. Estimated value? $150 trillion. Not cash.

[00:22:15] Not gold. But something far more essential in our 21st century. Strategic minerals and materials used in infrastructure, defense, and energy. According to Rickards, this is more than an economic shift. It's a political and cultural realignment. He says we are entering a new era. Now, with the regulatory chokehold broken and political momentum building,

[00:22:44] he believes the nation is poised to reclaim control over its own wealth, its own future, and its destiny. He also talked about how he believes we are in a recession. I played those clips at the end of the last hour. But he is also a fan of the tariffs and the thing I talked about in the first hour, which was the balanced trade economic model,

[00:23:10] which is a competing philosophy to, quote, unquote, free trade. Here is what he said regarding the tariffs. Trump's putting all these tariffs on us. The best economic policy you can think of. It's extremely good for the U.S. I get in this debate all the time. I'll expand on that a little bit. But when I have this debate, and I explain to people that tariffs are good, they say, for the United States, they go,

[00:23:35] well, yeah, Jim, yeah, but this is really going to be bad for Vietnam and China and Malaysia. And I say, yeah, that's their problem. Our job is to make America great again. Tell President Xi to make China great again if he wants to let him figure out policies that actually work, other than overborrowing, real estate boom, and corruption, skimming, and a lot else. So our job is to take care of America. And, you know, Kirsten Armour can make the U.K. great again. That's all. That's a highly questionable statement.

[00:24:06] But that's all fair. So looking at it from the American perspective, what we're seeing is a return to something called the American system. It was invented by Alexander Hamilton in 1790. You know, his problem was first Treasury Secretary. We had revolutionary war debt and state debt that had kind of hung over from before the creation of the United States. And one of the first issues facing Congress is, what do we do about all this debt? And so Congress said, well, that's easy.

[00:24:34] We'll just default as the American way. Right. And Hamilton said, no, we'll borrow more, use that money to pay off the old debt. And then we'll just keep borrowing and just roll over the debt. And that was the creation of the government securities market has been going strong for 230 years. You can call it a Ponzi, but, you know, it works. All right. So so he likes the idea of all the tariffs. He's on board with this. The rap on the tariffs is it's a sales tax on American people. Right. That's what I've always been told. He disagrees.

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[00:26:27] But on the tariff issue specifically, one of the things that we have heard and I have said and I believe is that tariffs are paid by the consumers, the end user. It's a sales tax on the American people. Rickards says that is not true. In a tariff transaction, you have three parties. It could be more, but at least three. You have the producer-exporter in China, Vietnam, etc.

[00:26:57] You have the importer who's a wholesaler or distributor. And then you have the consumer. So we are going to put 20% tariffs on things. It is going to raise the price, at least initially. Who actually pays the tariff? Well, it's the importer. The person who takes the goods off the ship at the Port of Los Angeles. He's got to write a check to the Treasury for 20% of the value of those goods. But who pays it economically?

[00:27:19] It is split between the producer and the importer or it's completely pushed back down the supply chain to the producer. So the importer says, hey, I just paid 20% more. You need to lower your price 20% so that when you, or whatever the number is, so that when you throw on the tariff, it comes out about the same. Or the importer will eat it in the form of reduced margins or profits.

[00:27:45] The original exporter, the producer, will eat it in terms of reduced profits or margins. The one party that does not eat the tariff is the consumer. There is no price increase. There is no price increase, he says. And then he gave an analogy here. If Walmart or Costco or Target or Best Buy could raise prices 20%, why wouldn't they just do it? I mean, why do you need tariffs to do that? Of course you want to raise prices.

[00:28:12] The reason they can't is because the consumer can't pay it. The consumer's tapped out. You know, credit card lines are used up. Mortgage rates have been high. Hiring has dried up. There are a lot of, you know, and inflation generally, we're still, you know, the thing about the Biden inflation, they say, well, inflation went down from, it was 9.1% in June 2022. It's about 3% today, you know, give or take. It's bouncing around a little bit. They say, well, inflation has come down. Yeah, but the 9% never went away.

[00:28:41] That 9% increase is still there. The 3% increase is still there. Prices are still going up. But when, you know, the financial television talking hits that, you know, inflation's coming down, people think prices are coming down. Prices aren't coming down. And inflation's going up at a slower level, but it's still going up. And we're building on top of the 9% that we had in 2022, which was the highest since the early 1980s.

[00:29:06] So given all those price increases, which are now embedded in the other headwinds I described, people can't afford to pay higher prices. Like I say, if they could, they would have been charged that already. So in other words, the tariff does not fall on the consumer. It falls on the producer or the importer or it's split between them in some fashion. So the idea that it's inflationary is not true. And the idea that it is a sales tax on consumers is not true. It does.

[00:29:33] It could affect margins further up the supply chain, but not at the consumer level. So this is an argument and a position I have never heard articulated. I'm not saying I believe this to be true, but this is the other side of it. This is the approach and the thinking of the balanced trade advocates. He then predicts that the tariff regime, which Donald Trump has now paused, will create high-paying jobs in America.

[00:30:03] You can sell whatever you want to the American people. No problem. But build it here. Put your plant in the United States. Because you've got to, instead of paying the tariffs, if you're the producer, going back to what I just said, the producer bears it. Well, if you don't want to bear it, jump over the tariff wall and put your plant in the United States. Taiwan Semiconductor is spending upwards of $100 billion building new fabrication plants for semiconductors in the United States.

[00:30:31] Apple just announced $500 billion of investment in the United States. Now, they're a U.S. company, but they've been investing mainly in China and Malaysia and elsewhere around the world. So, Honda announced they're building a major car manufacturing plant in the United States. I love my friends, you know, in the upscale zip codes. They're driving Mercedes. They go, I got a nice German car. They said, no, it's not. It's made in South Carolina. I stick to Audi's because they actually are made in Germany.

[00:31:01] Humble rank. So, more and more of these cars are built in the United States. What we're seeing is stage two. This is Lighthizer 2.0. Robert Lighthizer was the deputy U.S. trade representative to Ronald Reagan. He did this to the Japanese car industry in the early 80s. He saved the U.S. car industry. And the Japanese finally said, okay, we hear you. Because he threw huge tariffs on them. He said, we hear you. We'll put our plants in the United States and they're here.

[00:31:30] All right, so a couple of the people, there were three brothers, the Richmond brothers. Jesse Richmond wrote a piece or wrote a book along with his two brothers about the balanced trade economic model ending the unbearable costs of America. That's what the title was. And this is an excerpt from Goodreads talking about what the book is about.

[00:31:56] How should a principled nation which believes in the benefits of mutually beneficial trade respond to the predations of mercantilist trading partners and imbalanced trade? Many argue that the response should be to do little or nothing. I've never been one of those, by the way.

[00:32:17] I've never been one of those, by the way.

[00:32:51] Balancing trade can make important short-run and long-run contributions to economic stability and prosperity. And one of the best options, they say in the book, is the scaled tariff. By targeting countries with which the U.S. has a large current account deficit, the scaled tariff would efficiently, legally, and effectively balance trade. So that's the premise of the balanced trade argument.

[00:33:19] And then there's this from Rachel Bovard. She says, I am a millennial. She's a writer and conservative. And she says, I'm a millennial who was raised in the institutional right. I was waterboarded for years with free trade dogma and Austrian economics. But the problem is, the theory didn't line up with the practical needs and realities.

[00:33:47] It's true up to a point. Markets are still the best sorting, profit-making, and intuiting institutions. Human behavior cannot be predicted or controlled by policymakers. But the Austrians always pretend like free trade simply exists in practice, when it never does. Multilateral deals are full of special interest distortions.

[00:34:14] The World Trade Organization did not work and diminished American sovereignty, while other nations head-padded and then ignored it. The U.S. has been taken advantage of for years by not responding in kind to nations getting rich off our planned industrial demise. All of this was a policy choice. So let's use policy as a tool to level set back to neutral.

[00:34:41] If anything, she says, I'm a Rothbardian, Marie Rothbard, in that the World Trade Organization was a mistake. And bilateral trade deals are clearly superior to the giant multilateral elite priority pork fests that we have now. By the way, this is one of the things always in this case, whenever you're talking about these types of tariffs and deals, the special interests are always swarming around, right? They're always in the water.

[00:35:10] They're lobbying and stuff to try to get exemptions and carve-outs and everything else. So I guess from like a centralization perspective, much like with the federal government versus state governments, if the lobbyists just have to go, you know, on one trade deal versus, you know, with like a World Trade Organization, one big deal versus have to go and lobby every single industry and every single country's deal, that becomes a harder thing to do. We shall see.

[00:35:40] All right, that'll do it for this episode. Thank you so much for listening. I could not do the show without your support and the support of the businesses that advertise on the podcast. So if you'd like, please support them too and tell them you heard it here. You can also become a patron at my Patreon page or go to thepetecalendorshow.com. Again, thank you so much for listening and don't break anything while I'm gone.