Predictive Betting Markets and NC Election Integrity | Hour 2

What's going on. Thank you so much for listening to this podcast. It is heard live every day from noon to three on WBT Radio in Charlotte. And if you want exclusive content like invitations to events, the weekly live stream, I Daily Show prep with all of the links, become a patron, go to dpeakclendarshow dot com. Make sure you hit the subscribe button. Get every episode for free, rate your smartphone or tablet, and again, thank you so much for your support. We are paying attention closely to President Donald Trump, who's expected to make a address the Address the Nation this evening and you can listen to it right here on Wbt's expected to talk about election security. Interesting there's also a story out today that Trump's longtime teleprompter operator is alleged to have made big, big bucks by betting in predictive markets on what the president was going to say. That the accusation. The allegation is that Gabriel Perez, a technical assistant to the president who'd been operating Trump's teleprompter for the last ten years or so, is now in talks with federal regulators to settle allegations that he used that teleprompter knowledge to make one hundred thousand dollars or more on what the president was going to say. Well, let's talk about predictive markets. Jeff Moore, economist John Locke Foundation is joining us now. Jeff, thanks so much. Explain predictive markets to us. What does this mean? It really seems to be booming. Hey, donand I'm glad to be with you. Yes, prediction markets are the newest trend coming on. Prediction market really is is an online platform, as is everything these days, where people trade financial contracts based on the outcome of future events like they can be election events, outcomes, jobs numbers like economic reporting numbers, and then pop culture stuff like what outfit TAYLOR'SWI may wear on a contract, things like this. So they are they're trading these financial contracts on a yes or no question is this going to happen or is it not going to happen? And you buy shares in these outcomes at prices between zero dollars and one dollars. So if it's seventy percent probability of happening, that contracts trading at seventy cents. And what happens is when the event actually comes forth, that future event actually happens in reality, which every way it goes, the winning contract on the yes side or on the no side that will settle for one dollar, and the losing contract settles expires for zero dollars. And so it's actually a pretty innovative way to get involved in these things. They are spreading all around. I don't know if you see all over your phones and social media, but I get inundated with ads for these prediction market platforms all the time. Now in North Carolina, though state lawmakers have made our state the first in the nation to start taxing the winnings. Is that right? Tell me more about that. Yeah, So North Carolina is the first state to explicitly kind of legitimize this CFTC regulated prediction mark. So the CFTC is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and so they're actually deferring to federal regulatory authority and legitimizing them that way. They've placed this tax. I think it's a tax of six percent on net trading fee revenues, and that goes into effect in January of twenty twenty seven. But there's no additional state licensing or regulations, and that six percent tax and that deferral of federal authority is the real innovative thing here from policy makers and from the market players themselves. They are making the pitch that they are very distinct from some of these other wagering platforms and that they're actually trading these financial contracts on the predictions. They should be regulated like futures contracts on things like oil and coffee and bananas. They trade these things out of the exchange in Chicago all the time, and they've got a very very heavy regular way framework in place, and so they're borrowing that regulatory framework for the CFTC to apply that to the players here at North Carolina. So pretty innovative policy with a relatively low tax burden for these operators. It's interesting because sports betting is like twenty three percent, and does it feel like it's closer to that or you're describing this regulatory framework, what do we gain? Do you think there'll be big money coming into the state's coffers over this? Yeah? I think in the budget the prediction for the revenues raised from the prediction platforms it was only a couple of million dollars. As they go in and they do have there's this big disparity between the six percent for prediction platforms and the now twenty three percent which was bumped up from eighteen in this budget on the sports betting and gross wagering revenue for the sports betters. And so that's where the innovative kind of policy application comes into play, because they've really made the case that they are super distinct from the Sports Better platform and that they're really trading the financial contract. Assentially, they should be regulated in the same way. It's not going to turn into big money right away, but because this is the kind of the cutting edge of innovative, kind of entrepreneurial things, this is really tagging on to all the trends we've been seeing over the past three to five years with everything going online and being able to bet and trade and make predictions on everything under the sun. This really puts North Carolina out front. I think it makes a precedent for North Carolina on the policy side that they can invite these innovative companies in and we can relyve the economic benefits and the consumer benefits and the liberty to actually engage in these kinds of activities without overburdening them with regulations or having these things get bogged down and lawsuits, and we see that in some other states where they have super high tax rates on these operators, and there are other lawsuits going on around the country. So North Carolina really stands out here as a policy innovator in this regard. Sure, I know you have a professional history of trading, and that's kind of thing that's must really your curiosity or excitement about this. How can we use these predictive markets to get some really useful information aggregating opinions of people and where trends are going. How do you see this translating into real stock trades and things like that. Yeah, it really, it really gives you a lot more information than we typically have, especially around things that you and I deal with a lot in elections and political outcomes because we do we do polling. But polling has has kind of morphed over the years because of people's different habits of using telecommunications. So it's going from a landline to a cell phone to being online all the time. But with these things, you have people with financial incentives in place, and so when you put your money behind those things, you tend to make more educated decisions and make more kind of reasonable predictions of what's going to happen. So if you look at these markets, you can actually get a really good sense of where things are going, and as you get closer to future it you can get a pretty confident kind of assessment of what the odds are for an election outcome or even those other just very mundane things that people seem to be making predictions on. But it seems like a good thing to introduce more information into the market with these prediction market platforms, and then it will probably morph into areas that get more into traditional finance. But it's such a new world now. People are a little bit worried, as you mentioned the teleprompture operator of people leveraging these things to kind of gain the system a little bit. But the governor signed the budget with this provision in it. I think he issued an executive order as well to kind of ward off any insider trading worries from state employees where predictions might run into what government actions on a state level are going to be and things like that. So they're thinking about these risks, but it looks like they've kind of stepped into an embrace of the new kind of market platforms like this instead of with the more with more animists like they do with some other areas that are very new and unregulated. So instead of an unregulated gray area, now in North Carolina, we've got some regulatory certainty here. Sure, sure, Are you concerned about inexperienced folks saying okay, this is a quick way to make money. Yeah. Perhaps, as with anything you give people a little bit of liberty to make predictions or spend money and take risks like that, you're going to have people that take risks that maybe they shouldn't. But that is the messy price of liberty a lot of the time. But also you're controlling everything that you're putting on these platforms. You're going to make a prediction and put money behind it, then you're putting that money the dollar amount that you choose, and these things are settling at one dollars on the winning side and jeer dollars on the other side, So you're kind of waydering what you would be prepared to part with. I don't think there's huge concerns there on the prediction market platforms because of how they're actually structured. In some other environments where you have I mean, casinos is something we've talked about recently. In the past couple of years, those environments seemed more successful to the worries. These platforms seem a little bit more cutting edge in the actual the actual information space versus the wagering space, as far as I can tell. Sure, Jeff Moore from the John Locke Foundation, thanks so much for spending time with us today. Thank you all right. For over a year now you've heard me talking about Create a Video. Great local company in mint Hill that has helped more than two million families preserve their memories by turning old photos, VHS tapes, film reels, and slides into lasting keepsakes. Now creative videos helping families and groups create brand new memories while they're traveling. 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Check out Group Travel Videos dot com. That's Group Travel Videos dot com. Or call seven oh four eight four six seventy eight seventy extension two o six. And when you do that, ask for Katie. But Pete, can I just email? Well, yes you can. You can email Katie Katie at group travel Videos dot com. Group travel videos from old memories to new adventures, preserving life's moments for a lifetime. I'm Donna King from Carolina Journal, filling in for Pete Calendar today on the Pete Calendar Show. If you want to get more of us, make sure you head over to follow social media at WBT Radio, or of course you can follow at Carolina Journal. We've got all the latest news, everything you need to know right there. So one of the big headlines we've been following recently is at North Carolina yet again, is one of the top states for business according to CNBC's Top States for Business rankings. Now we are at the number two spot. We were at number one, now we're number two. But North Carolina consistently outpaces national averages in our GDP growth, Job Creation, Business Formation. Right now, Donald Bryce, and CEO of the John Locke Foundation, joins us. He's got a column exactly on that. Donald, thanks for joining us. Tell me why do you think North Carolina continues to do so well when parts of the other parts of the country are more looking for a soft landing economically. Well, that's a really great question, Donna, And thanks for having me on today. And I think it's awesome that you're filling in for Pete on WBT. The smartest audience in radio in North Carolina, So thanks for having me on. But yeah, North Carolina continues to do really well. Yes, we fell from number one to number two, but honestly, I wouldn't read very much into that for a couple of reasons. The first is we haven't been either number one or number two for each of the last six years. Other states have risen and fallen in that, but if you're consistently a number one or number two state, I'd say that you've basically stayed the same. Especially and this is the second part, given that CNBC continues to kind of rejigger their formula. This year, they put a lot more weight in workforce protections, particularly protections for labor unions, things like that. North Carolina is one of the least uni United States in the country, if not the least least unionized state by a percentage, and so the fact that we were still number two and just by nine points on a two thousand point scale is really remarkable and speaks well to North Carolina. But overall, you know, we've all been holding our breath since the Biden administration, waiting to see if there's going to be a recession or not, hoping for a soft landing. It appears nationally we're going to hit a soft landing. But North Carolina is out performing the country in terms of unemployment rate and payroll growth. The geographic breadth of how our prosperity is going, it's across the state. In you know, eighty nine of our counties are seeing a lot of growth. So overall, you know, there are a lot of details to get into, but we seem to be outperforming the country. Sure to what do you credit that growth and that consistency, which, as you point out, is really one of the most important factors. Yeah, no, absolutely, absolutely, There's a lot going on, but a lot that goes to the decade or actually more than a decade of policy success that conservatives have seen in North Carolina over the past fourteen fifteen years, with tremendous tax reform and tax cuts, particularly flattening the state income tax and then continuing to lower that rate in the state budget that was passed this year. We're going to see tax cuts on into the future for the next few years. We're looking to get rid of the corporate income fact rate. And this has caused growth and investment to come into North Carolina and that's benefited people in a variety of ways, including wage growth and opportunity for more jobs. Sure Now, critics say, well, you know, people would have come here anyway. We've got this huge population growth, lots of companies coming. They would come here anyway because we've got great geography and great quality of life. But it takes more than that to create the environment that we have, doesn't. It absolutely does take more than that. And you know, we can't say that people would have come here anyway. If that was the case, then we would see, you know, that they would have gone to California anyway, that we would have gone to Illinois anyway, they would have gone to New York anyway. And it's very clear people from the non part of the Tax Foundation to Grover Norquist, Americans for Tax Reform, the American Legislative Exchange Council have all broken down the data in a variety of ways. But people and companies are voting with their feet and they are leaving high regulatory, high tax environments and they're going to you know, lower regulatory or you know, getting rid of the fat out of regulations. It's not saying that we don't need any regulations, but getting the fat out of it, and lower tax states are seeing that growth, and that's why states like North Carolina, Texas, Tennessee, and Florida are really the ones that are leading the national economy right now. And you know, those more progressive states, especially Illinois, but also California, seeing profound amounts of growth, and that's really a shame in terms of California because they have such a strong economy. It would be one of the largest economies internationally if it was its own country. But it's really just being propped up by the entrepreneurial community out there. But a lot of those people are leaving, and you're seeing a lot of companies relocate from California to Texas and California to North Carolina. It's a shame. There was a story a few years ago about some NBA players that took actually lower salaries to go to teams in Texas rather than teams in California because they did the math on the state income tax decided to go to the Texas until of California. They just make more money. You know. One of the things you a great column about this on Carolina Journal dot com and you acknowledge in there that manufacturing is softening in our state. Tell me, what are you worried about and what should policymakers, what should lawmakers be paying attention to in our economy over the next few years. Sure so, I wrote that column back in February about the North Carolina out facing the nation's soft landing but the numbers still hold true. You know, if you look at the unemployment rate in May and North Carolina, it was three point seven percent. Nationally, that rate is four point three percent, so we're doing better than the country. Payroll growth in North Carolina is about one point two percent over the year through May. That's about sixty one thousand jobs based on the current employment level. That's great. Ninety seven of North Carolin's one hundred county still had unemployment rates of five percent or below in May, according to the State Department of Commerce. That's phenomenal in terms of where we're strong. Seeing a lot of employment in construction, specifically at four point nine percent, that's really important because that's literal actual physical growth, right, we have more people building things because we're growing. Education and health services have seen a bump of over three percent, a leisure and hospitality the same, and that's great. But if you look year over year manufacturing unemployment nationally is down and in North Carolina it's it's weaker as well at two point seven percent. And you know, I think there are some valid concerns about manufacturing, including the tariffs that have been put in place by the Trump administration. That's complicated supply chains and increased costs on things. I also think that what's going on and with Iran right now and increased fuel costs have complicated that. And this in addition to that puts a lot of pressure on state and national policy concerning overall energy policy and talking just about oil, but you know, electricity policy. How do we power these manufacturing plants and make sure that it is portal and reliable for those people to want those companies to want to invest in North Carolina. We're not at a problem state yet in North Carolina, but you know, just like it is in the country, it is a weaker sector than what we've seen in other places or another sector. Sure, Donald Bryce and CEO of the John Locke Foundation, thanks so much for your time today. Thank you, Don appreciate it. President Donald Trump expected to address the nation tonight on elections, security, and North Carolina's own state Board of Elections met this morning. Teresa Opeka from Carolina Journal joins us. Now, good afternoon, Teresa, Thanks so much. Let's start with the state Board of Elections meeting today. What went on in that meeting? Yes, Don, thanks so much for having me. Yeah, so quite a bit happened in that meeting. Today, they basically were talking about some rules they voted on about elections, starting off with a recount process and maybe some as far as found near polling places. But the biggest thing that was discussed was in person voting photo ID rules, which got some blowback from Democratic members on the board. This involves when a county board finds a photo ID exception form to be false. Right now, the current rule requires the unanimous vote. The revised rules would change that to a majority vote, and the majority of the board would be required to initiate the process with the voter by sending them a notice. Much the same. Votes came down along party lines, like I did at their previous meeting. They voted three to two, with the three Republican members voting in favor the two Democrats against. Basically, we had a Democratic member, Jeff Carmon last time he was, you know, didn't want any partisan play with this, and basically today he said the same thing, but he was a little more vocal. He said, what frightens him by this rule is that we're supporting a lie. He said, there isn't any significant voter fraud in our states and by making this rule of making a majority instead of unanimous feeds into that lie. And basically, if we're going to go down that road, he said, we're going to follow a national movement that we need to be really careful as well as being prepared for blowback, which will continue to be what appears to be an agenda throughout the country. And we also had Democratic member Shavon Millen agreeing with that, so it got pretty contentious between he and fellow Republican board member and Secretary Facy four Eggers, who disagreed with him, you know, basically saying this new rule is more faithful to the text of the State Statute and he appreciates that it's being proposed with that statute. And he also said he believes review Commission, which now this is heading to, is going to agree with him. So basically they passed, but voted. It was along party lines, and that was a pretty contentious moment during that meeting this morning. Certainly, you know, it's interesting that the narrative that you see on the left, and it looks like some of the local news outlets that were there inviting the headline that I've seen so far is new rule would make it easier for elections officials to toss out ballots. Well, this thing, this really is an interesting narrative. But I think that as we see what happens with the new commission and what they say and whether they agree, this seems to be an effort by the new state Board of Elections to more closely align rules with state law. Is that are you seeing the same thing? And why do you think that is? Yeah, I definitely agree. I do see it as being that way. I think that, you know, there have been numerous cases being cited over the years of possible issues with voter integrity. That's what mister Eger said today at the meeting. You know that that we are being open and honest. There's nothing you know, basically wrong with that, you know, And that's he basically it said, you know the Yeah, that's that's the total agreement on this. They want to be open about this and have an agreement. And I guess it depends on what side you're on, right, because this seems to be like a narrative. There's other stories this week that was in the news about you know, the state health plan. You see there's a narrative on the other side about how they they make this narrative, But basically I agree with you it was there are they are following statutes. I think it's been a long time since maybe that has occurred according to what we're seeing in the state board, but it seems like they are trying to be more open and transparent at this point. Very interesting. So we are just I guess, like seven weeks out from absentee ballots going in the mail for the November election, So it's going to be a quick seven weeks I think when we really see all these ads coming down and lots of processes to be checked. What is with the midterm election approaching? What are you watching in particular? What do you think the biggest election administration issue that you're going to be watching for as we go into North Carolina is November election? Sure? Sure? And briefly just touched on one thing you just mentioned. They are going to have another Stuate Board of Elections is having another media on Monday to vote on rules for mail in ballots as well, so that will be interesting to follow that too. But basically, just you know, the voter integrity and seeing how things are going to be done, and you know, the whole process in general. I don't think there's one specific area. I think they're so important at this point is to seeing that they're uh countering voter fraud, you know, like we've had the elect the case and point with the Canadian gentleman who I guess he got cited for voting illegally in the North Carolina election earlier this year. To just seeing how things are being done is far as you know. In that way is voter integrity has been a long time issue. It's always been an issue, but it's more important than ever, you know, as you mentioned about President Trump tonight having his speech talking about foreign efforts to include the US elections or just in general, like we don't even know if that's occurred here. I know there was discussion about that North Carol of different left dark dark money left wing groups doing that. So I think basically the whole thing is very important to watch at this point. It absolutely is. So we're going to be watching it closely and you can listen to President Trump's address to the Nation right here on WBT this evening. Teresa Peka from Carolina Journal, thanks so much for joining us. You're welcome. Here's some of the top. Stories that we're following this afternoon, Among them, a Charlotte area transportation debate heating up as local leaders face a decision on the future of the I seventy seven Express Lanes project so the region begins the next decade of transportation investments in North Carolina is giving several North Carolina giving several Charlotte area communities a choice continue supporting the I seventy seven projects or potentially repay millions already spent on planning and design. The state, says Charlotte, Mecklumber County Davidson, Cornelius, Huntersville meant Hell have ninety days to talk about previous votes that withdrew support for the project. If they don't, the state can withhold future transportation funding to recover shares of the sixty million already spent. Charlotte would face the largest potential repayment because he has the greatest voting weight and that Charlotte Regional Transportation Planning Authority Board one community has already changed course. The City of Monroe recently voted to restore it support for the project, with leaders saying they did not want to risk future transportation funding. Charlotte City Council member Ed Driggs, who represents the city on the board, says he does not expect major action at this week's meeting. Instead, the discussion is expected to focus on what changes could be made to the project to address concerns and potentially bring opponents on board. Meantime, the Board is also looking ahead at future transportation needs across the region. The organization has opened up a thirty day public comment period for us on proposed transportation projects in Iridal, Mecklenburg, and Union Counties. The comment period is part of North Carolina's Prioritization eight point zero process, which helps determine projects included in the states twenty twenty eight through twenty thirty seven Transportation Improvement Plan. The draft list projects including highways, aviation, bicycle pedestrian improvements, rail transit, everything. There's five thousand local input points to assign, twenty five hundred for regional impact projects and another twenty five hundred for division need projects. Those points help determine which projects get priority for future funding. You have until five o'clock on August fourteenth to submit comments. Also, a PINEVLT building damaged in a deadly crash earlier this year is back open. Pineville's town hall reopened Tuesday, with more than two months after a driver crashed into the building. The town reopened the facility at eight am, and the town Council scheduled to hold its meeting in the council chambers. The Pineville Library, which was also impacted, has not announced a reopening date just yet. The crash happened on April twenty seventh. Police say a twenty two year old lost control of a Honda SUV and slammed into the building. When officers arrived, they found the vehicle completely crashed through the structure, and the driver was pronounced dead at the scene. There were no passengers inside the vehicle, and no one outside the vehicle was injured. Police said the vehicle was not being pursued at the time of the chase. Meantime, Charlotte leaders are also taking action on another public safety concern, large gatherings of teenagers known as team takeovers. We've all been seeing that video on social media and it is alarming. The Charlotte City Council's Safety Committee has unanimously recommended changes to the city's Youth Protection Ordinance following several instances in this summer that involve large crowds, fights, even gun related instances. The recommendation now moves to the full City Council for consideration. Officials say recent gatherings places parks, Birkdale Village, and University City Bardwalk have created some real challenges for law enforcements happening in Raleigh and Wake County as well over the Fourth of July weekend. The proposed changes are aimed at giving police additional tools to respond before situations escalate. And state officials are warning taxpayers about a new scam, including fake involving fake refund messages. You may have gotten one of these. If you have let them know. The North Carolina Department of Revenue says criminals are sending text messages claiming a taxpayer's refund has been approved, but they're asking for your bank account information through a link. The messages often create a sense of urgency, threatening that the refund will be forfeited if the information is not provided quickly. Officials say messages can look very official, but they are very very fake. The Department of Revenue does not communicate with taxpayers about revenues through text message, so if you do receive a message like this, officials say delete it and don't click any of the links. Those links cannot allow criminals to steal personal information or access your bank account. If you're unsure whether a communication is legitimate, the Department of Revenue says taxpayers should call its customer service line at one eight seven seven two five two three zero five to two during normal business hours. A new foundation has been created to support employees of the North Carolina Department of Adult Corrections. The NCDAC Employee Foundation was incorporated with the Secretary of State's office back in May. The nonprofit is designed to help correctional officers and their families during times of need. This could include assistance after an employee dies in the line of duty, help following a natural disaster or personal tragedy, and other support services. The foundation is modeled after similar organizations in other states. The specific benefits will be determined by the foundation's board of directors. To help launch the effort, in CDAC, Secretary Leslie Dibsmuts is directing half the proceeds from the department's annual Secretary's Cup golf tournament to the foundation. Additional funding is expected through the State Employees Combined Campaign fundraising and other approved efforts, and the state budget is also including new investments in North Carolina's veterans facilities. One major piece of funding in that state budget that we've been talking about over the last ten days or so is funding an authorization to rebuild the Fayetville State Veterans Home. The Department of Military and Veterans Affair says it's continuing site and property analysis for a new facility will improve veterans' access to long term care and medical services. The budget also provides additional resources for state Veterans cemeteries. Official say a new cemetery position will help improve daily operations and ensure that veterans have a final resting place with proper care and maintenance. All right, that'll do it for this episode. Thank you so much for listening. I could not do the show without your support and the support of the businesses that advertise on the podcast, So if you'd like, please support them too and tell them you heard it here. You can also become a patron at my Patreon page or go to thepetcleanershow dot com. Again, thank you so much for listening, and don't break anything while I'm gone.