Let's hope Trump knows what he's doing (04-03-2025--Hour1)

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[00:00:28] First off, I have to acknowledge my bias. Let me start with an anecdote. Lesson. In 1930, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, in an effort to alleviate the effects of the Anyone? Anyone? The Great Depression, passed the Anyone? Anyone? A tariff bill, the Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act, which...

[00:00:57] Anyone raised or lowered, raised tariffs in an effort to collect more revenue for the federal government? Did it work? Anyone? Anyone know the effects? It did not work and the United States sank deeper into the Great Depression. Hmm. This is my bias. From the documentary Ferris Bueller's Day Off, that's where I get this knowledge from.

[00:01:23] Bueller? Yeah. Bueller? Right. Bueller? The Smoot Hawley Tariff Act. Or as he called it, the Hawley Smoot Tariff Act. Last night on the... I do a live stream on Wednesdays, and last night on the live stream, I acknowledge I may be the fish that doesn't know it's wet.

[00:01:51] But because of my age, I'm a youngin'. And so my entire life and all of the status quo thinking about tariffs has been that they are not good. They are not good for the residents of the nation that apply them to imports.

[00:02:23] And I guess we're going to find out if that's true or not. Right? We are all going to white knuckle this sucker all the way down to find out whether or not everybody for the last century has not known that they are the fish that is wet.

[00:02:42] Right? Because in 1930, June 17th, as a matter of fact, 1930, the U.S. legislation was passed. The Smoot Hawley Tariff Act had raised import duties to protect American businesses and farmers, adding considerable strain to the international economic climate of the Great Depression. This is according to the Encyclopedia Britannica, if you can trust that.

[00:03:13] The act takes its name from the chief sponsors, Senator Reid Smoot of Utah, or as we like to refer to him, Smootaw, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee and Representative Willis Hawley of Oregon. He was the chair of the House Ways and Means Committee. It was the last legislation under which the U.S. Congress set actual tariff rates. Okay?

[00:03:41] The last time this was done, 1930. And it was a disaster. Right? The consensus, not even a consensus, it's like darn near unanimous understanding of what the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act did, was to prolong the Depression, the Great Depression. See, because it wasn't the first set of tariffs that the U.S. had put in place.

[00:04:08] In 1922, Congress had enacted the Fordney-McCumber Act, which for some reason nobody ever talks about that one. It's always Smoot Hawley, Smoot Hawley. It's never Fordney-McCumber. But that was among the most punitive protectionist tariffs passed in the country's history. It raised the average import tax to 40%. 40%. Okay?

[00:04:34] The Fordney-McCumber Tariff prompted retaliation from European governments, but it did not dampen U.S. prosperity, according to the Encyclopedia Britannica. Okay? So it did not reduce prosperity, 40% tariffs. Throughout the 1920s, however, as European farmers were trying to recover from World War I, and their American counterparts faced more competition because, I mean, think about it.

[00:05:03] You had Europe that had been obliterated in World War I. And, by the way, the same thing happened after World War II when it was obliterated and all the industrial capacity was just ravaged. It was pretty easy for America to dominate all of the, you know, Western societies, the industrialized world, because we didn't really have a whole lot of competition at that point.

[00:05:31] Because they were all, they had just come out of two World Wars, right? So after World War I, the farmers in Europe, they start recovering. And so now they're able to grow stuff and they're able to sell it on the markets and all of that. And now that's starting to hurt the U.S. farmers. American farmers were now facing competition, declining prices because they had overproduced,

[00:06:00] because they didn't have competition. Now you got the European farmers recovering. Now there's more supply in the market. U.S. agricultural interests then lobbied the federal government for protection against agricultural imports. In his 1928 campaign for the presidency, Republican candidate Herbert Hoover promised to increase tariffs on agricultural goods.

[00:06:23] But after he took office, lobbyists from other economic sectors encouraged him to support a broader increase, make it affect more products, more sectors, right, more industries. Although an increase in tariffs was supported by most Republicans, an effort to raise import duties failed in 1929, largely because of opposition from centrist Republicans in the U.S. Senate. And then came the stock market crash in 1929.

[00:06:53] And then protectionism, this philosophy of protectionism, gained strength. And through the tariff legislation, Smoot-Hawley tariff passed on a margin of two votes, 44 to 42 in the Senate. It passed easily in the House. This then became law, even though a petition from over a thousand economists were saying veto this legislation,

[00:07:21] Herbert Hoover signed it into law. June 17th, 1930. It raised the average tariff by 20%, which then prompted retaliation from foreign governments. Overseas banks began to fail. Global trade declined in the four years that the legislation was in effect. Oh, and the Republicans were all voted out.

[00:07:51] Smoot and Hawley lost their seats. Hoover out. And FDR comes to office and Democrats enjoy control then for over 60 years. Smoot-Hawley tariff considered among the most catastrophic acts in congressional history.

[00:08:13] Tariff did not sit well with the voters and Republicans paid the price voting up, voting out all of the Republican majorities. So that's the ocean I am in. Okay. That's what I have always understood about these kinds of punitive large tariffs. Okay. I recognize my bias.

[00:08:38] This is why I am greatly concerned at what the president unveiled yesterday. And I am also concerned that there doesn't seem to be a lot of explanation that is coherent and consistent from the administration. I'm getting different explanations for why we need to have the tariffs. You talk to three different administration officials and you're going to get three different answers. I've got audio.

[00:09:06] We got Scott Bessent. I've got, you know, supporters that are trying to defend this tariff regime. It's a negotiation. Oh, no, it's more than that. Whatever. Whatever the case may be here. My concern is that this now is going to create the same conditions that the Smoot-Hawley tariffs did. Kind of like a fourth turning. Here's a great idea.

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[00:10:53] I'm not really sure what we're being liberated from, but as far as I can tell, it might be my money. But, you know what? As I have said repeatedly, we're all going to see what happens here. Like, let's... And Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, is like, you know, let's all just watch and wait. And I have urged the same thing. Like, the immediate reactions to all things Trump, and you get the people that hate Trump,

[00:11:21] and so they immediately start attacking anything that he does, and they make all the dire predictions. And this could be one of those times, too. All I'm saying is that tariffs are taxes, and those taxes have always been borne by the people in that country. That's how that works. So you could say there's a long-term strategy going on, but you're not going to know what that is until we actually...

[00:11:47] We're not going to know if that strategy is successful until we get to that long-term. And if it's one thing I know about Americans, it's that we are willing to put up with short-term pain. I'm just kidding. No, we don't... Yeah, we don't have any appetite for that. All right, let's go to the phones, and we'll talk to Blake here. Hello, Blake. Welcome to the show. Hey, Pete. How are you? I'm good. What's going on? Hey, just a quick question for you. Uh-huh.

[00:12:15] So if tariffs are bad, why are all the other countries enforcing tariffs against the United States for a long period of time if tariffs don't work and they're bad? So if you are... So which country would you like to discuss? Which country would you like to discuss? Or are you just talking in general? Why does anybody put in tariffs?

[00:12:41] Yeah, in fact, everybody on the list that Trump put up yesterday, they're basically reciprocal tariffs for the most part. They're not, actually. No, they're not. So none of those countries enforce tariffs against the U.S. I didn't say that. I said they're not reciprocal. Even Trump acknowledged that. So that was not true. So all of that narrative that they're just going to be reciprocal... Like, for example, China, they have all sorts of what the Trump administration said

[00:13:10] was like 67% tariffs or whatever. But the tariffs that Trump slapped on them yesterday or announced yesterday is not 67%. So they're not... He said... He promoted the fact that because I'm lenient, I'm a nice guy, we're only going to do half. So it's not reciprocal. Also, countries like Israel that scrapped all of its tariffs, they still got hit with the tariff.

[00:13:38] So if they had gotten... So they got rid of the tariffs. And if it was reciprocal, then America wouldn't be tariffing them. So it's not reciprocal. Now, as to why do other countries put tariffs on American products and services is because they are also misguided. And we are the largest market. And they're trying to protect their own industries and such. I would submit it's not wise policy.

[00:14:08] Is that why there's a lot of foreign countries that are in economic distress? Is it because they're tariffs? Yes. They would be better... They would be doing better if they allowed more trade to move more freely. That's a voluntary... In voluntary trade, you have greater prosperity. But it's a very seductive siren for politicians.

[00:14:36] Because there is an old saying, former North Carolina Governor Jim Martin said it the first time I ever heard it and said, see that man behind the tree, go tax him, don't tax me. And that guides too many politicians when looking at fiscal policy. They try to find the smallest constituency that'll bring in the most amount of money. And so when you say we're going to tax those people in that other country, it sounds like a good thing for people in your country.

[00:15:07] But yeah, just because other countries do a bad thing doesn't make it a good thing. And if Trump is using the tariffs in order to get people back to a zero, and so there is actual free trade, then cool. I'm okay with that. But I don't think that that's... It doesn't seem like that's the strategy because, again, he slapped tariffs on countries that had lower tariffs than the 10% he slapped on everybody. That's not reciprocal.

[00:15:36] So do you think it is a 50-50 strategy of getting them to get to zero? I have no idea. Or fair free trade? No, I wish I knew. Also as a tax. A hidden tax to the U.S. It is. Yeah. Tariffs are taxes. He's got some pretty stiff tax cuts coming up if those bills get passed. You know, no tax on Social Security, no tax on tariffs, no tax on overtime, and then the reinstate the 2017 tax rates that were pretty low.

[00:16:07] Yeah. Well, they're still in effect, and they're racing a clock now to keep them on the books. Yeah. Correct. Okay. Okay. Yeah. But if they expire, like if Democrats gum it up and they're unable to advance the tax cuts and keep it on the books, then yeah, that's going to be another massive tax increase on people, along with inflation, right? That is now baked into all of the pricing, right?

[00:16:36] That, you know, from the Biden administration. So it's just we're getting nailed in every direction. And, you know, the economists over the last century all understand that tariffs are paid by the consumers in your own country because a product is coming onto our shores. And if I want to buy that product, then I have to pay more for that product because that's the tariff.

[00:17:03] Now, the argument is that, oh, the other countries, those companies that are sending their products here, right? Because these are mainly companies, right? It's a company that makes something overseas and sells it here in America. And that the thought is that they're going to eat those costs, not the American consumer. And I don't know if that's I don't know if that's going to be true. Nobody does. That's that's the gamble, right? That's what they're gambling.

[00:17:32] Yeah, well, I think some of it's going to get by them and a lot of it's going to get passed on. Sure. Right. I mean, that's the old I mean, that's the old axiom that in business to be profitable, right? Bingo. Right. And that not companies don't pay taxes. Yeah. Companies don't pay taxes. Consumers pay the tax. Right. The buyer pays the tax. So, yeah. Yeah, go ahead. So, look, may I ask you another question? Yeah. You're pretty smart. You're a pretty smart guy. Yeah, you're pretty smart. All right. You've been doing this for a while.

[00:18:01] So I'm a first time caller. Welcome. And I was intrigued by the conversation. So what's different about the world economy and the U.S. economy today than when that tariff bill was passed? The catastrophic tariff bill 60 years ago or whatever. Yeah. What's different? Wow. A lot's different. Oh, yeah.

[00:18:28] So you don't think there's anything different about today's world economy and our economy? Did I just said it was different? That would support a better outcome on this tariff initiative? No, look. Because it's only part of his economic strategy. It is not his economic strategy. Look, you are making assertions that, if true, would result in benefit.

[00:18:57] However, I don't know those assertions to be true, and neither do you. And that's why I said at the very beginning, at the outset, Blake, that's why I said, like, we're all going to be going on this white-knuckle ride. Absolutely. Yeah. And some people are like, yes, let's do something different. I believe it to be less of a white-knuckle ride than what you do. Yeah, no. That's my belief. Right. And I would submit that that's probably due to a trust in Donald Trump that I do not have.

[00:19:27] You trust him more than I do. I don't know. I don't know what your level of trust is. Okay. Yeah, but I'm saying that your willingness to go along for this ride with him is based on a higher level of trust in what he's doing and what his strategy is. Well, I wouldn't consider myself a dumb sheep, a dumb follower. I didn't say you were. I said you have a higher level of trust than I was. No, no, I didn't say you said I was, but I wouldn't consider myself that. Okay.

[00:19:56] And I think Musk and Trump are smart, smart people, and I don't think he has – I don't think Trump has any insidious desires or outcomes in all this. I think he wants his head on Mount Rushmore to come out of this thing as one of the greatest presidents of the United States, and he's doing the things that he believes will get us the greatest benefit. That's what I believe. I got you, Blake. I got to run. I appreciate the call.

[00:20:24] All right, if you're listening to this show, you know I try to keep up with all sorts of current events, and I know you do too, and you've probably heard me say, get your news from multiple sources. Why? Well, because it's how you detect media bias, which is why I've been so impressed with Ground News. It's an app, and it's a website, and it combines news from around the world in one place so you can compare coverage and verify information. You can check it out at check.ground.news. slash Pete.

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[00:21:22] Your subscription then not only helps my podcast, but it also supports Ground News as they make the media landscape more transparent. I began the hour by noting my bias. My bias is towards free trade, actual free trade. So that means, yes, if we're dealing with a country that is acting in a protectionist way against us, then we have to account for that.

[00:21:45] So if we actually had true reciprocity and say, you know, Mexico was putting tariffs on all of our stuff going there at 10%, then we could hit them with a 10% also, and then we would be equal. But that's not what Donald Trump has done. They've got a formula, and by the way, I'll get into that formula as well.

[00:22:11] And so the tariffs are not quote-unquote reciprocal. They're different. These are set at different levels. There isn't really an explanation as to why. My bias is towards actual free trade because free trade grows prosperity for all involved. I don't look at a trade deficit the same as I look at a fiscal deficit.

[00:22:41] A trade deficit I have, for example, with Amazon. I have a trade deficit with Amazon. I spend – I give them money. Now, I get stuff, but if I'm just looking at the amount of money I send to Amazon or to the sellers of the products, I am in the red there. However, I have a higher standard of living because of the things that I have purchased.

[00:23:11] And if you look at the global economy going back 40 years, as free trade, as free market capitalism has accelerated throughout the globe, the levels of prosperity have increased. 100,000 people every day are lifted out of poverty across the planet. And that is a good thing. That is a good thing. And that is through voluntary trade.

[00:23:39] It makes everybody richer. It makes everybody have a higher standard of living. That's my bias. That's been my position for 20 years. I'm a free trader. So if you want to go after countries – and that does not mean that I think that the relationship with China and what they do is acceptable. I do not. I don't think they should be a most favored nation trading partner. Absolutely not.

[00:24:07] Because they employ slave labor. You cannot compete with that. And allowing them to operate that way and giving them money simply empowers them. That's not free trade between the two countries in my view. Right? And if they're blocking our stuff going in there but demanding that their stuff comes in here, that's not free trade either.

[00:24:33] So, again, we're all going to find out whether or not this global economic realignment works. And if it doesn't, my fear is we are all really screwed. And me personally, I will tell you my bias is that I work in an industry that is dependent on advertising.

[00:24:59] And the very first thing that companies cut when a recession hits is advertising. And so I'm looking forward to maybe being out of a job soon. That's possible. Right? Further erosion of purchasing power. After going through four years where I saw a 15% decline in my purchasing power thanks to inflation. Right? I've taken – we've all taken pay cuts just from inflation.

[00:25:30] And then, you know, have a house with a mortgage and lose the gig, lose my job, and then can't afford the house anymore. Then try to sell the house. Can't sell the house because the house is now worth less than what the mortgage is. So now I'm underwater on it. And so then I go bankrupt. See, so those are the things that I'm looking at and I'm trying to project. So those are the unknowns for me. Those are my biases.

[00:25:59] And so when I hear, oh, this is going to generate money for the U.S. government through these tariffs because that's what – that's the pitch. It's going to bring in $600 million a year or whatever. Well, that's – those are additional taxes paid by Americans going into the U.S. government coffers. So I'm not thrilled about that. That's a tax increase on me.

[00:26:27] But maybe all of the other companies in all of the other countries, maybe they will eat all of the extra costs. Maybe they will all renegotiate. Right? That's possible. I hope it happens. I really hope it happens because if it doesn't happen, I'm going to be in a world of hurt economically. That's my bias. So that's my concern. And maybe you don't share that concern. Maybe you're like, you know what?

[00:26:57] Let's go through it and this is going to stick it to somebody else or, you know, I don't – yeah. Maybe you're willing to go through the pain because somebody else deserves it that didn't get pain before. And so this is going to give them pain now. You're going to unwound yourself by wounding somebody else or something. I don't know. So this is from Keith. Classic move. Guaranteed the confluence of events happened.

[00:27:26] Slap tariffs on. Go short on the markets. The markets tank. Buy back your stocks for dirt cheap. Checkmate. Elon and Trump made a boatload on tariffs. I worked on the trading floor for years. I've seen this all before. Is that what it was? Did they short the market? Are people buying a bunch of stocks now? Because what are we down, 3% on the market today? I don't know. I'm not telling you I have these answers.

[00:27:56] I'm just like you. I have to sit back and watch from afar and guess how this is all going to go. And I'm not confident. I am not confident. All right. So spring is here. A time of renewal and celebrations. You got graduations, weddings, anniversaries, and the special days for mom and dad. Your family's making memories that are going to last a lifetime. But let me ask you. Are all of those treasured moments from days gone by?

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[00:29:16] I am not trying to tell you what to think about all of the tariffs and everything. I'm not trying to tell you what to think. All I'm telling you is my concerns. You don't have to share them. I'm a libertarian. I'm not telling you how to live your life. I don't tell you what to think, how to think or anything. I'm just walking you through sort of my thought process on this stuff and trying to follow my own advice

[00:29:45] to be patient, give it a minute, see what happens, and hope and pray that this is of benefit. Because I'm very concerned it's not. All right. John, welcome to the program. Hello, John. Hey. Yes, sir. Tap into some of your geniusity. Hey, a little while ago you said the way things have been up to this point, we've experienced quite a bit of prosperity.

[00:30:15] But how do you square that with a $37 trillion deficit? You know, have we financed prosperity in that way? Possibly. And so the rebalancing to counter how we've spent ourselves, and it wasn't sustainable. So in other words, that prosperity we've experienced up to this point is not sustainable.

[00:30:40] The deficit and the debt is different than a trade deficit, right? Right. We have financed the world by our ultimate $37 trillion. How have we financed the world with $37 trillion? Well, with supposedly the trade imbalances that we've had over time.

[00:31:09] No, that's why I said they're different. So a trade deficit occurs when a company in another country sells more product into America than American companies sell out to that country. Well, I get that. But what I'm talking about, maybe it's not a direct line necessarily.

[00:31:27] But if we keep our revenue stream in trade is net negative, constantly net negative, constantly net negative, then... But that doesn't drain our accounts. It's just saying that we're buying more of their stuff than their buying of ours. Well, you know who... So let me say it this way. Hang on.

[00:31:54] Do you know who the number one manufacturing country is on the planet? Take a guess. It's either going to be us or China. Right. China. Right. And number two is us. We manufacture a whole lot of stuff. And we also export, quote unquote, services.

[00:32:15] So just because a country buys more or, sorry, buys less from us than we buy from them, that does not lead to deficits. The deficits that we have at a government level are due to our own government spending money on unfunded things in the future like Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security. Right.

[00:32:38] The unfunded liabilities of like $70 trillion, right, that we're not collecting revenue enough for all of the programs that our own government does. That's an us problem. Well, there's a spending problem, certainly. Right. But then if...

[00:32:55] I'm talking about the tax consequences of having a more robust economy here would lead to a better balance sheet or a better income statement on our side. And over 50 years of it... What is the purpose of the tariffs then? Well, I think what you alluded to earlier was to get to fair trade. So it's negotiation. Yeah, it's negotiation. Okay.

[00:33:25] So it's not a revenue generating vehicle to offset the deficit. Not the trade imbalance, but the... No. No. Yeah. And if that's the case, then John, I guess, you know, hopefully then it's to our benefit. But I just, I don't know that to be true. I appreciate the call. I got to jump over here and get to Travis. Hello, Travis. Welcome to the show. Hey, Pete. I was trying to figure out how to best condense my thought process here.

[00:33:52] And I think there's four possible ways that, or ways that Trump could be trying to use the tariffs. And the problem is, I don't know which one it is. I wish he would articulate what his goal is. The first goal that I see is, if he's trying to repatriate an American job, is that the goal? He just wants stuff built here. Right. I've heard him say that. Yeah.

[00:34:17] Is it that he's trying to reorient dependencies so that instead of being dependent on autocracies like China, we're dependent on democracies like India? Mm-hmm. I don't think that's the case. I don't see him trying to cut us off from China and pivot to India. Is he trying to negotiate? And I did hear, Tex Fransman, he's an Israeli journalist who I think works with the Foundation for Defense and Democracies.

[00:34:44] I heard him saying, he sounded like a journalist on background. He goes, well, it might be that there's talks to resolve Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, and Iranian nukes all in one big deal that involves China and Russia. Maybe that could be, he sounded like a guy on background. I don't see what he knows about saying. So maybe that's why China gets lower tariffs.

[00:35:11] I just wish, oh, and the fourth possibility, because I have three. The fourth possibility is what you've been laying out. Is it to navigate, to negotiate free trade? Mm-hmm. And the problem is, I just wish you would tell us which. I wish you would come out and say, this is my priority. I want to repatriate jobs. I want to decouple from China. One, pick one. I don't know which. But I wish you would just articulate that. No, I agree, Travis. And that's been part of the problem, is I'm getting different answers from different administration officials, and even Trump.

[00:35:41] And so it's hard to know. And, you know, for, I think, people who are, you know, diehard Trump supporters, they're okay with not knowing. They trust him. And, you know, his ambiguity is okay by them because they trust him, that he knows what he's doing, and this is all for a reason. Right? I think they pick one of those possible answers, and they run with that. Some will swear, oh, this is what his goal is. Right. His goal is to repatriate. His goal is to... Yeah. Anyway, thank you so much.

[00:36:11] No, those are good ideas. I appreciate the call, Travis. There is a fifth possibility, is that Donald Trump doesn't actually know what he's doing at a larger level. He just really likes tariffs. Because he's really liked tariffs his entire life. Like, that's also possible. That there isn't any other grand strategy at play here. It's just he wants tariffs. Because he thinks tariffs are good. Good.

[00:36:41] And this, again, this is a position that he has articulated. His own people sent out on social media a clip of him on the Oprah Winfrey show back in, like, the 90s, where he was talking about all these other countries. I think at the time it was... It may have been Japan and somebody else I forget. And he was talking about how they're eating our lunch. They're making all these VCRs. That's how old the clip was. And he was calling for tariffs back then.

[00:37:11] So he has remained consistent on the tariff issue over the course of his public life. That whenever he's talked about this, he's always had the same position. He wants more tariffs on other countries. So that could also be it. That there isn't any other kind of larger strategy at play.

[00:37:33] He has talked about, you know, bringing companies, manufacturing facilities, jobs and such back into America through these tariffs. If you don't want to pay the tariff, well, just make the stuff in America. Right? Again, I can understand that. But you should expect every other country to also do the same. Right? And then that suppresses trade. And that then lowers prosperity. That's just the historical record.

[00:38:00] So maybe there's a better strategy at play here that I don't know. All right. That'll do it for this episode. Thank you so much for listening. I could not do the show without your support and the support of the businesses that advertise on the podcast. So if you'd like, please support them, too. And tell them you heard it here. You can also become a patron at my Patreon page or go to the Pete Calendar show dot com. Again, thank you so much for listening. And don't break anything while I'm gone.