It's (not) too early to start handicapping NC's 2026 races (11-11-2025--Hour1)

What's going on? Thank you so much for listening to this podcast. It is heard live every day from noon to three on WBT Radio in Charlotte. And if you want exclusive content like invitations to events, the weekly live stream, my daily show prep with all the links, become a patron, go to dpeakclendershow dot com. Make sure you hit the subscribe button. Get every episode for free right to your smartphone or tablet. And again, thank you so much for your support. We always chat with Andrew Dunn at this time and we will do so again today. It's Andrew Dunn. He is the publisher of long Leaf Politics. He is also a contributing columnist over at the Charlotte Observer. Andrew, how are you today, sir. I'm doing well. Good to be with you. I also want to say thank you and Happy Veterans Day to your listeners who have served. It's not a contest, Andrew's okay, I already said it. Okay, you did, but I wanted to say it. No, that's fine. So last Tuesday when we spoke, the election was underway, and in the evening you apparently made your way over to Selwyn pub where Republicans have traditionally hung out and watched the returns come in, and they were there again. And you have a quote from Pat McCrory as you were watching the carnage on the computer screens, he said, this city's changed a lot. And then you say in your piece at the Charlotte Observer, the only explanation appears to be a reaction to President Donald Trump, with suburban voter sending a clear no that washed straight through a municipal ballot. So when I read those two things, did I read this wrong? But it sounds like those two things are in conflict, Like he said, the city has changed a lot? Or is it a repudiation of Trump? Or I think is ed when Peacock called it a Trump labd Yes, Are those things at odds or or am I off on that? No? I don't think they're necessarily in conflict, but I think it does reflect two different things that are happening. You know. One, you know, Charlotte is a rapidly fast growing city and we are getting a lot of folks coming in from out of state who are bringing their politics with them. At the same time, I also think we're seeing a change in voting behavior, you know, in these off year municipal elections. You know, for a long time, we've seen a distinct difference that voters are willing to look at Democrats and look at Republicans in the context of their positions on issues locally, and I just didn't see any evidence of that at all this year. It's really the first time where the only explanation for what's happened seems to be national issues kind of percolating their way down to the local level. So, because I got to tell you, when I heard Edwin Peacock say that, the first thought I had was that seems like an awfully con union thing to say. So it's not on you, you know, as a candidate or maybe a poor campaign, although Peacock raised a whole bunch of money for his campaign, but he also lost his at large bid back in two thousand and nine. Right, So, like the city hasn't sent a Republican to an at large seat in Charlotte for what ten years, fifteen years now, So I don't know. Also, you got a lot of Republicans that have fled the area over the last twenty five years. As you know, these Chamber pushed projects, the Center City Partner pushed projects of the arena and the light rail and the NASCAR Hall of Fame and all of these other things that you know, made us quote unquote world class, and a lot of Republicans who fought that stuff they just left. They went to all of the surrounding counties. So was that really a nationalization of the politics or is that there just aren't any Republicans left because they got so fed up with publicans doing these types of projects. Yeah, I think that's a fair pushback. And I you know, I don't think you can attribute Edwin Peacock's loss just to a Trump lash. You know, perhaps you could say the margin was impacted by that. I think where it really shows up is in District six, the Christa Bakari race. I mean what, I don't think all those things you just described can account for, you know, for Tark Bakari winning by a couple hundred votes two years ago to Christa losing by what almost four thousand votes in two years without having some of these other issues at play. You had another quote or another line in the piece at the Observer, Voters in and around Charlotte used local levers to make a national statement that's why District six fell that's why the school board lost its last Republican vote. I would also throw into the mix Democrats have a history of voting for like guys like Jim Black, even like they would rather put a crook back into a state House spot rather than elect I think his name was Hal Jordan rather than vote for a Republican they will send the corrupt guy back as well, so I think. But again, like and these are the city council race was partisan, the school board was nonpartisan. But I mean that's just name only. You know, the parties put out their palm cards and stuff for everybody to know who's a Democrat, who's a Republican, and that sort of thing. And then you also had a was this a dig at Driggs? You said he tends to go along with vy Lyles the mayor, so there's functionally no longer a conservative voice of accountability at the dais. Yeah, I mean I think you could certainly read it that way, Okay, right, I was. Just checking because I read that. I was like, oh, Andrew with a well, and I have heard the same thing. I have heard the same thing about Ed Driggs being part because I like my view on the city council is basically you've got two voting blocks there and one is you know, whipped by the mayor. Uh. And then you've got sort of this dissident block and that's you know, Renee Johnson Victoria Wattlington and they don't have the votes yet to do stuff. And you know, Drake's goes with the mayor on a lot of those votes. So and I thought that's what Peacock was kind of positioning himself for as well. How he got the you know, how he got the appointment onto District six before this election too. But anyway, so that's that's. That's not necessarily a bad thing. I mean, it is. It is sometimes when we're talking about issues of transparency with you know, with some of these settlements that we've had. But oftentimes, you know, Mayor Lyles is on the on the right side of things as more of your more traditional pro business, moderate ish type politician. Have you ever heard the saying that there are three parties in Charlotte the Democrats or not. Okay, so this was the common axiom about twenty twenty five years ago. They would tell me that there are three parties, the Democrats, the Republicans, and the Chamber, and the chambers the most powerful, and I just and over the years, I just wonder if the Chamber fed the alligator hoping you would eat it last, you know, And I don't know if it's got that same kind of pull anymore. If you've got like the Council now in this kind of voting block split where half of them might not be Chamber voters. Yeah, I think that's in a stude observation, I would absolutely agree that the Chamber has lost a lot of influence over the past ten years. Yeah, all right, So let's talk a little bit about your predictions, because it's never too early to talk about, never the next election, and you talk a little bit about your predictions based on the Civitas Partisan Index. We're actually going to talk to Andy Jackson from the John Locke Foundation at twelve thirty to go into some of these numbers. But you you say that we are kind of sort of maybe looking at a blue wave election based on the CPI data. Yeah, and I'm glad you're going to have Andy Jackson on. He's amazing, And this Civitas Partisan Index is kind of a gold standard for understanding general Assembly elections. And you know the reason why I say it's kind of going to be a blue wave. I think it will be. I think Democrats will pick up seats, but I don't think it's going to be a twenty eighteen style wave where we were looking at ten seats flipped in the House and six in the Senate. And that's just because there's fewer actual battleground type districts left to flip. You know, twenty eighteen is when the suburban Charlotte districts went from red to blue, and those never went back. So you know, those are just not in play anymore because those are just Democrat districts. Now. Yeah, you're also going to have a Senate race at the top of the ticket there that's going to motivate people. You got congressional races as well that are going to motivate more turnout. And one of the things that I heard, you know you've heard of Scott Presler. He does a lot of yeah, get up the vote registration stuff for the Republicans. And I saw an interview he did with Sean Spicer, former White House Press Secretary, Yeah, and he was talking about all the work that they were doing ahead of this last election in Virginia and New Jersey, mainly in New Jersey, I think, And he was like, MAGA did not turn out, just like the Republicans turned out, but MAGA did not. And I don't know how Republicans motivate MAGA voters when Trump is not on the ticket, do. You, Yeah, I don't know. It's really an interesting question. You know, Historically in low turnout elections, Republicans have had the advantage because republic voters tended to be higher propensity, you know, they'll always get out. Well. Democrats had lower propensity voters that really had to work on turnout. Now it's the opposite. Republicans have the turnout problem, and I don't know what the solution is. I mean, it does seem pretty clear at this point that there is a block of Trump voters who are not Republican voters. And I don't know if there's any real way to convert Trump specific voters into Republican voters more broadly. Yeah, it's harder too. I know. Democrats built up an entire infrastructure around you know, voter registration and getting out the vote, with all of their various activist organizations and such, but they're I mean just From a practical standpoint, it's easier to go door to door and reach those voters in urban areas because people just live closer together. You can drop a couple of canvassers off, you know, and they can hit a couple of hundred houses versus Maga kun tree, where you know, you may be going one to two miles between homes and maybe getting shot out while you come up the driveway. So I don't know how you build that kind of infrastructure, unless maybe it's all with text messaging. Now, lord knows, I'm getting a ton of them. I don't know why. It just yeah, all of a sudden, Oh boy, yeah, I don't know. I don't know what the solution is. I think part of the problem is that that President Trump isn't necessarily as concerned with party building infrastructure building as a as a Reagan or a Jim Martin here in North Carolina where. Yeah, well you mentioned the low propensity party. That's what Scott Presler said as well. He's like people need to understand that that that has flipped. So you echoed what he said. But also he said Trump needs to stop telling people not to vote early, like you got to get all of these votes banked, and you got to be working for you know, the first month before the election or that last month before the election. You got to be working on banking all of those votes as early as possible, because the Democrats are just eating their lunch in a lot of these states. So maybe Trump. Yeah, that's exactly right. I mean, you can be philosophically opposed to early voting, but it's not going anywhere anytime soon, so everybody should get on board. I always vote on the first day of early voting, for what it's worth. The only downside that I've ever heard about doing that, and I voted early most of the time, is that if some scandal breaks, you know, and I think the j Jones text message scandal up in Virginia is a pretty good example of that. You know, that oppo research or the story broke, I guess like three weeks before the election, but so many people had already voted by that, Like, what do you do at that point? So maybe Europo dumps have to come earlier. Maybe that's w. Yeah, and it's got to be a September surprises right in October. One No more October surprise, is exactly right. You could read his work at long Leaf Politics. Long leafpol dot com is the website subscribed to his newsletter. There. You can also read his work at The Charlotte Observe. He is a contributing columnist, Andrew Dunn. Thanks again for your time, Andrew, We appreciate it. Yeah. Thanks, Pete. Here's a great idea. How about making an escape to a really special and secluded getaway in western North Carolina. Just a quick drive up the mountain and Cabins of Asheville is your connection. 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And the sticking point is not pet projects or power plays. It's tax policy. And there are two different arguments being made, and both of them are conservative arguments. And so that's that's where the jam is coming from. All right, if you're listening to this show, you know I try to keep up with all sorts of current events, and I know you do too, and you've probably heard me say get your news from multiple sources. Why Well, because it's how you detect media bias, which is why I've been so impressed with ground News. It's an app and it's a website and it combines news from around the world in one place so you can compare coverage and verify information. You can check it out at check dot ground, dot news slash pete. I put the link in the podcast description too. I started using ground News a few months ago and more recently chose to work with them as an affiliate because it lets me see clearly how stories get covered and by whom. The blind spot feature shows you which stories get ignored by the left and the right. See for yourself. Check dot Ground dot news slash pete. Subscribe through that link and you'll get fifteen percent off any subscription. I use the Vantage plan to get unlimited access to every feature. Your subscription then not only helps my podcast, but it also supports Ground News as they make the media landscape more transparent. I want to welcome to the program doctor Andy Jackson. He is the director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation. Andy, how are you. Ah doing great? I'm technically off today, but. Oh my gosh, va to you. I'm so sorry. I actually I'm not. I'm just I'm selfish like that. So the moment we have all been waiting for the cpi' not the one that tells us how terrible the economy is. No, No, this is the Civitas Partisan Index. And I just had Andrew dune on. We were talking a little bit about his early predictions based on the CPI. Your CPI for twenty twenty six. Because it's never too early to start looking at the next election. So first off, what is the Civitas Partisan Index. Well, the Civitas Partisan Index is a analysis of the baseline voting tendencies of North Carolina's General Assembly district. So we take data and apply that to all one hundred and seventy districts in North Carolina, the fifty and the Senate one hundred and twenty in the House, and then we see if all other things are equal, and of course they never are, but if they were all equal, how would this district vote between a generic Republican and a generic Democrat? And we get these numbers. We get updated data every two years, so we update the CPI every two years. And so this uses your model utilizes precinct level results from the nine to twenty twenty four Council of State races, and you don't use presidential data. We don't. You know. This is we've been doing this for a while since even before I came on board to do this, and we were one of the We want to use races that are kind of as generic as possible. So these statewide Council of State races minus the governor are good for that because they really tend to be in that narrow band, for say, between fifty five and forty five percent Republican or Democratic. How people vote if they don't have a whole lot of other information or there's not a lot of weird news media information coming out that might alter the vote, and so they're kind of generic votes, and so they make pretty good data points for us to use. What about I hear this every time there's a presidential race and the Republican wins North Carolina but loses or but the Democrat wins the governorship, the ticket split a effect in North Carolina? Does that have what does? How might that impact the data set? Well, we saw that in Council of States there were some races won by Democrats Secretary of State, Lieutenant governor. Republicans won races like Commissioner of Agriculture and the state auditor. And so this accounts for all of those because we pull all of those together and put them in not just the percentages, but the vote totals. And we take the vote totals of all nine races and plug them into each of the approximately twenty seven hundred precincts in North Carolina, and then, based on the current districts, we assign those precincts to each of the districts to get the results. And so it's kind of good that we have that variety in the Council of State because it kind of covers all basic contingencies. So, okay, so you're you said nine, because there are ten Council of States, so you're not including that. We Yeah, we went Originally we didn't include governor because there's a relatively high profile race. We started using it for a couple of years, but you know, the last one was a bit of an outlier. Now, the way that we do this, since we kind of norm based on the election results, we compare each district to the statewide total, we would kind of account for that. But having a race that was so unusual and including that could have some unforeseen effects on the analysis in some districts. So we decided to go back to the old ways and not include the governor's race. Yeah, I was going to ask it. Yeah, it doesn't really affect the outcome of the district so much as far as we know, but there could be one or two where it would have made the results a little odd. So this is what then gives you sort of the four categories of of what directs a district is potentially going. You've got toss up, you've got lean, you've got likely, and then safe. Obviously, a safe seat is one that is virtually guaranteed to one party or the other. Likely obviously means that it's more likely than not that you know, Republicans going to carry the district or a Democrat. And then you've got the leaning and the toss up. What's the difference between the leaning and toss up. Yeah, in a certain sense, it is arbitrary. You have to assign a category to each of these. But basically our toss up districts have a different difference of either basically completely even. We call that plus zero, like an R zero or a D zero or plus one. Either way, they're just so close that you couldn't really reliably make any kind of prediction there. The leans, those are the ones that will generally go for that party, and that's from A plus two to a plus five. The likelies are six to nine, and then ten plus is the safe districts. Generally speaking, you know, once again, all other things being equal, you're going to win your leaners, you're going to win your likelies. But in elections, like this, which is a midterm election, the party out of the White House, we've found out, will often be competitive in the lean districts of the other parties. So that's potentially good news for Democrats in twenty twenty six. Right, And of course, if there is some sort of a wave election or there's some you know, massive political scandal like posing in front of a gas grill claiming to cook barbecue like that could have an impact on some of these districts specifically, because I mean I always say candidates matter. The candidates do matter. So oh yeah, yeah, yeah, So what does it look like. Let's look at the Senate real quick? First? What does the Senate look like? According to your analysis and the see. The baseline would indicate the Republicans are going to come out ahead. They'll have a pretty solid majority somewhere in the twenty six twenty seven to twenty eight seat range, not near a supermajority. Once again, Democrats could make a play for some of those seats. One of the different thing we talked about, and you mentioned how candidates matter is a couple of those lean Republican seats are held by frankly, really good politicians like Danny britt and Buck Newton. Both of those are out East, and so even though they at least potentially could be districts that are in play, probably not unless the Democrats can raise a ton of money and recruit a really, really good candidate to oppose those guys. But yeah, in the Bennett it's probably going to be Republicans being able to hold the House is potentially more interesting. Even though a majority of seats are either safe, likely or lean Republican. A lot more of those lean Republican seats appear to be in play this year. It's still, you know, really early to figure us to predict that. But if you go by pass tendencies in these midterm elections, the party out of the White House picks up close to half of those lean seats on the other side that would be and generally comes close to sweeping the toss up. So you're looking at a potential you know, eight nine, ten seats swinging towards the Democrats in the House potentially. And again not enough to give them the majority, but definitely not That definitely makes it harder to override veto sing goes for the Senate if they don't get thirty votes in the Senate, you know, or seats whatever. Then that means they're not going to be able to override any of Josh Stein's vetos without Democrats' support, and that becomes more difficult. One of the seats here you've got listed in the Senate side is Gabaris, County Lean's Republican. It's an R plus two and that's Chris Mesmer and he was the fellow that just got appointed to that seat. And there were some shenani going on at the county commission level from whence he came, right, so that might right, I'm thinking that was the that was the seat in question. So yeah, but again we're still a year off, so we'll see how it shakes out, whether people have a memory for that sort of thing. You also listed on the House side to Mecklenburg seats that are toss ups, Tricia Cotham's and Beth Helfrich that's Mecklenburg ninety eight. She is in a D plus one seat, but you still rate that as a as a toss up. So there's you know, potentially again depending on what we see sort of as a in the national environment and in the local environment, like there's a possibility that Cotham is out, but also a possibility that Helfrich loses depending on who they run against her. So yeah, definitely there's a potential there, although probably a little harder for Cossam just because of the likely environment next year unless something very strange happens and we have an usual election here right. Yep, you never can tell, You never can tell. And by the way, candidate filing starts December first, so are right, just a couple of weeks away. So there we go, h Andy, I'll let you get back to your vacation. Thanks so much for your generosity and spending some of your time with us. I appreciate it. All right, it's good talking to you too, all right. Take care. That's doctor Andy Jackson from the John Locke Foundation. You can, by the way, check out, uh the Civitas Partisan index. Oh, I had the website here, hang on, let me find it here so I can give it to you before we toss it to traffic. It is John Loock dot org. Okay, just go to john lock dot org. They've got it on their page. They're introducing the twenty twenty six Civotos Partisan Indexes. The headline John Lock dot org. That's Lock with an E at the end, John Lock dot org. You know stories are powerful. They help us make sense of things, to understand experiences. 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They are your life told through the eyes of everyone around you and all who came before you, and they will tell others to come who you are. Visit creative video dot com. Sh alrighty Happy, Veterans Day. It's a shout out there to the army. The army goes rolling along. That's their tune. We'll be playing one from all of the services, yes, even Space Force, they have a song. So I said, I would circle back to Andrew Dunn's comments on the budget stalemate in Raleigh. He said, it's a genuine policy disagreement between Republicans, okay, and it's both over tax relief and fiscal stability. So under the Senate plan, personal income tax rates would continue to come down over the next three years, under an agreement that the chambers had reached back in twenty twenty three. The Senate initially wanted even more aggressive tax cuts, but leaders say that they have backed off of that position now. The House, meanwhile, wants to delay the tax cuts for the foreseeable future. After spending more than two billion dollars on Hurricane Helene recovery and hearing economic forecasts of potential looming budget deficits, they want to keep more flexibility. That's the rub, Okay, It's about the tax rate, the personal income tax rates. Do they keep dropping or do you pause them because of the Hurricane Helene costs? And you keep the revenue coming in at the current level, and if there is going to be a deficit in the future years like four years, five years down the road, then does this guard against that. That's the nature of the disagreement. As Andrew says, everything else is noise. All right. That'll do it for this episode. Thank you so much for listening. I could not do the show without your support and the support of the businesses that advertise on the podcast, so if you'd like, please support them too and tell them you heard it here. You can also become a patron at my Patreon page or go to thepetecleanershow dot com. Again, thank you so much for listening, and don't break anything while I'm gone.