Iran War Update: Surrender or Peace? | Hour 1

What's going on. Thank you so much for listening to this podcast. It is heard live every day from noon to three on WBT Radio in Charlotte. And if you want exclusive content like invitations to events, the weekly live stream, my daily show prep with all the links, become a patron, go to vpekclendershow dot com. Make sure you hit the subscribe button. Get every episode for free, write to your smartphone or tablet, and again, thank you so much for your support. Okay, so I have had time now to finally read the memorandum of misunderstanding. It has now been signed as well digitally. I did take note of the fact that it was signed at Versailles, which I think there was another surrender signed at Versailles in world history. Then yeah, I still after reading through it, and I'm going to go over the bullet points here there are fourteen of them. There's also a little bit of misunderstanding still, it seems because the one that was being circulated in Iran is different than the one that we see. So I'm not really sure what to make of that. But something that I think is becoming very very clear over the last maybe like three or four days, this is JD. Vance's deal all right. Even Trump made a joke about this yesterday when he was doing the press conference at the G seven in France, where he said, you know, if it's successful, he'll totally take all the credit. But if it's not successful, then all of that credit quote unquote will go to jd Ha ha ha. But even people in the Vance world are calling it the Vance peace Okay, this from Dasha Burns. Believe she is with CNN. Let me see here, let me open this up to Dasha Burns, White House Bureau Chief politico formerly of NBC. Without question, the biggest political liability Vance had if you're looking for twenty twenty eight and a presidential run, the biggest potential political liability Vance had was the unpopularity of the war in Iran. So it's fascinating to watch his biggest enemies in the GOP unwittingly inoculate him from that liability by branding him as responsible for the peace deal. According to a person close to the White House who supports the deal, he now gets to do a media tour defending the president aka the kingmaker of our party from their idiotic criticism of the deal, while even his critics would acknowledge that the Vice president is a smart guy. Sometimes what really matters in politics is how stupid your enemies are. Okay, so. Vance World is saying, haha, they're giving Vance all of this credit for the peace deal. That's just going to make them look awesome, which of course assumes that the quote peace deal actually is a peace deal. My level of confidence in this thing is probably somewhere around ten percent that it will actually bear any kind of useful fruit. What I am holding out for, fingers crossed, is. That the Iranian regime gets toppled from within because of the damage that's already been inflicted, because it is not apparent to me that more damage will be inflicted on Iran. It seems like there are a lot of mechanisms in this thing to allow the IRGC and the Iranian regime to get up off the mat and to start, you know, collecting a lot of money and to continue funding terrorist proxies like Hesblah. In fact, they've already told Hesblah that yeah, checks coming, man, we're. Getting money back. We'll be sending you some money soon. So I have a lot of skepticism about this deal, and I don't care you can say it was Vance's deal, which that to me is what it looks like that. I mean, he was brought in, as you know, part of the negotiation team. He is very closely aligned with the Tucker Carlson ideological wing. He's a friend of Tucker Carlson's, right. Megan Kelly had him on the show. So like I think he is, he's playing to that that group, that audience. Whether he believes it or not, I don't know. I'll assume he does, but whatever, He's a politician, so you never know. And then. You can also say, no, the buck stops of Donald Trump. Totally fine with that too, Totally fine with both of them. This is their deal, right, this is their deal. And again I am My confidence in this thing succeeding is I would put it at about ten percent, maybe less. I just don't think it's going to work. Why Iran, the Iranians. Iran has a decision, has to make a decision whether it wants to be a nation or a cause. Henry Kissinger said that a long time ago, and for forty seven years the regime has answered cause. They want to be a Islamic revolution. Right. This melding of Marxism and Islamism together the Shia death cult view. And now they're going to get another chance to answer the question. Maybe they'll answer differently this time, and maybe they do, maybe they do, or maybe things crumble inside. There are real rifts inside of the Iranian leadership. Even now they're arguing over whether or not they should have signed the deal. You have hardliners quote unquote that are like, you shouldn't have done anything. We were winning. You also have to take into account, which I think a lot of the doom sayers on this tend to overlook the amount of damage that was inflicted on the regime. I mean, you took out what fifty roughly of their leaders, You blew up like a trillion dollars worth of stuff. It's going to take them a long time to rebuild that stuff. So like they have been set back because of the military gains, no doubt about that. However, if you're going to leave them in place to rebuild, then they will be able to do so. It'll take them some time, and so that's why some people are saying this is basically kicking the can down the road. But you've also now opened the idea that they get to control the straight of hormones. And you got a lot of people critics of Trump never trumpers and such, and they're like, this is worse than it was before. Maybe yes, if they say that, you know, the straight of hormones is ours. We control it. But in the meantime, everybody else that uses the Strait is finding other ways around, right, particularly for oil. So at some point you've played your ace in the hole, right to take pop shots at merchant vessels going through the strait, and that was your ace in the hole. And now you've played that card. You can't play it again. It's now out and so now everything is going to be priced in moving forward, right, all of that risk is priced in, and that's why you've got all of the Gulf nations built, you know, their fast tracking pipeline construction to avoid the straight. So at some point you may not be able to play that card any longer. You can control that body of water, and it will mean nothing to a lot of nations, right, it will have no impact on oil supplies, which, by the way, speaking of the oil supplies, a bunch of ships have gotten out of the Strait of horm moves. But also Ukraine just blew up like a Moscow oil refinery. And you've got the world oil reserves that were being drained because of the strait of hormones being closed, and so you've got world oil reserves at a very low level. So just a heads up on that, So get ready with your I don't want to pay four dollars for a gallon of gas arguments again, So I have the MoU. What I think is the MoU. This was read out by White House official and transcribed by various media outlets, so I'm going with what they read out. I went to the White House website, they don't have it published up there, so I'm just going by what was read out to reporters. I will give you the details in a moment. You know, stories are powerful. 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They are your life told through the eyes of everyone around you and all who came before you, and they will tell others to come who you are. Visit creative video dot com. Okay, So, here are the points of the Memorandum of Understanding Number one. The US and Iran and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, An undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty. Of Lebanon, which Iran does not do. By the way the final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph. Now, in that paragraph it says ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty. The Iranian version of the MoU said that the parties will guarantee Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Our version said respect Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity. But the final version says ensuring, which is closer to guaranteeing, which is kind of weird because hes Belah is a proxy army for Iran and they do not respect the territorial integrity of Lebanon. They don't respect Lebanon at all. Again, this is a revolutionary mindset. It must spread like locusts, like parasites. It must spread. So not really sure what that means for Israel if they're just gonna have to sit back and take it right, if Hesbelock keeps flinging drones and rockets as they continue to do into Israel, and somehow or another, Israel who is not a part of the MoU. Lebanon not a part of the MoU, they're supposed to somehow adhere to this MoU even though they were not signatory signatories to it, right, So how exactly does that work? You didn't even tell Israel what the MoU had in it while you were drafting it, So. How does that work for Israel? They're just what's supposed to sit there and just try to shoot out every drone, every rocket from the sky and hope that none of them get through. They're gonna have to give up their ten kilometer UH security zone that they have established in southern Lebanon. And why did they Why have they done that because that's where has Bella operates from, right on their border. So they had they've been clearing out ten kilometers deep into Lebanon territory and their in negotiations with Lebanon about how to basically root out Hesbala. Now if the Lebanese government, which is basically just really it's not even really a government at this point, I mean, it's a failed state at this point thanks to the Islamic revolution that occurred there in their civil war. So if Lebanon were actually able to get rid of Hesballah, Israel would not be in Lebanon. They would prefer that, but that's not the case, so not really sure what's going to happen there. Point number two, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs. So you are on your own, Iranian protesters, good luck. This is why this is seen by the Iranian people in the Iranian diaspora, the folks who fled Iran and have been you know, pleading with the world to help save them from their from their captors, from these hostage takers. They see this as surrender. They see this as betrayal, and that's not something you can easily overcome. Once somebody sees you as having betrayed them, that's that's really not. Something you overcome very easily at all. Like you got to earn back a lot of trust, and even then you probably never will because there's always that thought in the back of their mind, Well, they did betray me that one time, So good luck. You guys are on your own. I know, I know, Trump said, you know, help is on the way and all of that, but. Good luck. The United States of America and Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum six days, extendable by mutual consent. So we knew that immediately upon the of this MoU the US will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against Iran. It will fully end fully end rather the naval blockade within thirty days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Okay, this portion here was also a point of contention. The Iranian version says that the vessel traffic shall be maintained at levels proportional to pre war traffic volumes. The US version said it shall be progressively restored towards pre war levels, and the final version says the traffic will be in proportion to the numbers of pre war traffic. No idea what that means? I have no idea, Like, what's the enforcement mechanism there? US undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of Iran within thirty days after the final deal. Okay, So the final deal is not this Okay, right now, we're in MoU territory. Okay, this is the MoU timeframe. This is sixty days. It can be extended. But the idea is that this gives us sixty days to hammer out the final deal, and then thirty days after the final deal, then we would have to remove forces from the proximity of Iran. No idea. What that means. Either there's no zone, there's no boundaries, Like, is this international waters? Well, what if they don't recognize the Strait of Hormuza's international waters? Yeah, so don't know. Does that mean bases that are in Gulf countries on the border with Iran too close? You're in proximity? Yeah, I got questions From the text line, Ron says, fyi, gas is three dollars and fifteen cents a gallon in beautiful downtown Bowling Green, South Kakalaca at the hot spot, coming down overnight, love the show. Thank you, Ron, thank you. His name is Ron. I did not say thank you Iran. Okay, I did not say that. Point number five from the memorandum of misunderstanding. Upon the signing of this MoU, Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for sixty days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start and considering the need for removing the tactical and military obstacles and de mining by the Iranians, will be instated within thirty days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Warmus in discussion with other Persian Gulf rhetorical I think that means littoral states. I think that's supposed to say littoral as. In coastline, waterline, in line with the applicable international law the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormus. Okay, again, this is a a transcript that was being read to the press. That's how That's how this came to be. They have since published it, so the MoU This is according to Amit Siegall out of Israel. He's a journalist there. For I think I twenty four news or twelve. I forget what the numbers are but he says the MoU merely gestures at negotiating the status of the waterway with other states in the region. Language that quietly abandons the prior baseline of freedom of the seas and hands the question to bilateral talks between Tehran and its neighbors. The US assiduously avoided the word tolls, so Iran rebranded them as service fees. The honest term is protection money, and the only thing Iran is offering protection from is itself. Okay, I agree that that's what Iran is doing. It's a mafia like protection racket, no doubt. But something that I think people may be missing on this is this now forces the Gulf nation to choose. I don't know if this was the intent or not, but you know, Jared Kushner was part of the negotiating team on this. Jared Kushner was also the guy who brought forward the Abraham Accords. The Abraham Accords were fixing to get Saudi Arabia included, right, the Saudis were getting ready to join the Abraham Accords, and then Hamas launched October seventh, And there's a theory that they did so precisely to do that right to thwart any other Arab or Muslim country in the region from joining Israel in the Abraham Accords. Because they knew Hamas knew that Israel would respond militarily, and because they knew that, they built all their tunnels, and they used their civilians as meat shields. Right, sacrifice all of these civilians in order to further your pr battle, because that's the. Only way you're going to win. You're not going to win against Israel militarily. So they buried themselves underneath all of the civilians, and then they used all of those civilian deaths to turn public opinion against Israel right, which then makes it impossible for the Saudias to join. The Abraham Accords. However, now, according to this, you guys are going to have to settle this amongst yourselves. And by the way, Trump has said this before. This was part of it, like it's on their websites, on the White House website. Like the long term vision here is to to have regional alliances that police the area so we're not there anymore. This is what they have been saying. And so if we're like, you know what, we're walking away. Look and this ties. This is still the straight of war moves. And I've been saying this from the beginning, Like I kind of feel like we could open that straight if we wanted to. I mean, we shut the thing down with the blockade, if we wanted to carpet bomb the entire Iranian coastline, we could do that too, But we haven't. So is there a reason or is the administration trying to force these Gulf nations into actually participating in their own defense but also in the reigning in of Iran, which they don't seem to be very interested in doing. They haven't been. They've just been like, well, you know, I We'll just we'll bank with them, and we'll do this stuff with them whatever. And now Iran bombs you, and you're like, well, I'm not so sure, Like you guys need to take Iran out, But what about you guys? How about you guys, you know, put some skin in the game here. By the way, this same provision number five this also went through different revisions. The IRA version said it will discuss the future administration of the Strait with Oman and consult other Gulf states. The US version said Iran will engage with Oman and other Gulf littoral states, and then it ended up being that they will conduct dialogue with Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law, which tells me like that is a reference to the strait is international waters. You don't actually get to toll them or service fee them, or whatever you want to call it. But again we don't know, because this is all left open for the negotiation, which is why I still think this is a stall tactic. From the text line, tim o'teo says, the US has no authority to grant Iran control over the Strait of Hormis, nor to defend their claim that is correct, we don't. We can say that's international waters, and all of the nations of the world should be participating in the protection and maintenance of international maritime freedom. But it doesn't appear like a lot of countries are interested in doing that or even capable of doing it, except US. And that's the problem that Trump ran into with the Europeans right with the straight up hoemus. Rodney says, I have a question, as a result of poor public education, what constitutes international waters? Is it a distance off a country's coastline? Well, hang on, let me google that for you. Thinking about doing a segment, a regular segment on the pro called PETE Searches your Questions, It would just be me using a search engine to answer questions. Pete Searches your Questions or psy q or psych anyway, according to the search engine on Brave, International waters, also known as the high seas, are oceanic areas beyond the jurisdiction of any single nation, beginning where a country's exclusive economic zone ends. Generally, these waters under the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Seas or unclosed these waters start beyond two hundred nautical miles from a coastal state's baseline. Now this is different for straits because a strait is a very narrow body of water, but it is a vital choke point for nations that are on either end of that strait that need to be able to go through or the world trade you know routes that go through the straits. There are several of them around the globe. So the two hundred miles is not applicable to these types of straits. But yeah, the Strait of Hormuz is under international law. It is an international waterway, and so Iran doesn't get to control it, and the United States does not have the authority to grant them that control. The only way that they would be quote granted that control is if everybody just agreed to pay the jizya. That's it. If everybody agrees to pay the extortion right the tax. It's the only way that works. And once it works in the Strait of Hormuz, then expect every other country that is on the border of a strait to start doing the same thing because it's an easy revenue generator, especially if nobody is going to force. The choke points. So number six bullet point, the US undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed upon plan with at least three hundred billion dollars for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within sixty days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the US. And that's got people worry because that sounds like a lifting of all of the sanctions and such, which is then further elaborated in point seven. But also if we blew up all of their military targets and such, why are we going to pay to rebuild that? No? Not interested? Not interested. But this is sort of like the peace board that Trump did with Gaza. Right again, Like everything about this to me screams, get this issue off the table before the midterms. That's what this screams to me. And I've not seen anything that disabuses me of that. Read yet, I could be wrong on all of this stuff. I could be wrong about a great many things. Zero point seven. The US undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the UN Security Council resolutions for example, the IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule. See again, all of this stuff is like, we're going to talk about doing these things. So we have sixty days to talk about doing these things. So like, I'm not clear if you're ever going to get to some resolution on these things, but we're telling Iran will totally work to do this stuff as part of the final deal, not after sixty days, but that's to get to a final deal. Then that gets negotiated, and then as part of that final deal, Iran and the US acknowledged the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them. So we promise we will discuss getting rid of all the sanctions. Some people I think are reading this, and maybe they are correct to do so, that this is an immediate lifting of the sanctions, but I'm not so clear on that. And remember we as part of the cease fire that wasn't very cc like they were supposed to stop messing around in the Strait of Hormuz and they did not. So I'm not really sure why we think that they're going to play by the rules in this agreement, especially closer to the midterms, right because if they know, and I think accurately, if they know that the US administration is sensitive to anything blowing up before the midterms and the price of oil spiking and all of this, they want this stuff off the table out of the headlines. Well, Iran can easily make their lives difficult and maybe even get Democrats elected. Democrats they they are totally fine with this being a terrible situation because it will help them electorally, and Iran knows that, and they know that if Democrats win, they will likely impeach Donald Trump and then that could get rid of Trump for them. Now, I'm not saying giving aid and comfort to the enemy is intentional here, but it doesn'tim that way. All right, that'll do it for this episode. Thank you so much for listening. I could not do the show without your support and the support of the businesses that advertise on the podcast, so if you'd like, please support them too and tell them you heard it here. You can also become a patron at my Patreon page or go to thepetecleanershow dot com. Again, thank you so much for listening, and don't break anything while I'm gone.