Iran War Update: MoU is already failing | Hour 1

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So here's what happened. Right, We had the had the signatures done and JD Vance, the Vice President, has been making the talk show circuit and selling this thing ah erecting any number of straw men and then just beating the stuffing out of them. And then you had the Ayahtola or sorry, the the baby Nippatola allegedly put out a statement again, we've seen no proof of life out of the sky, uh since the decapitation strike on like the first day back on February twenty eighth, or or March first, whenever that was. But apparently they put out a statement in his name saying, yeah, this isn't great, not what we wanted, and don't worry like this is now going to launch the great Jihad. This is like a little giot, don't you worry about it? And okay, so now the hardliners are like, okay, so this is all just bunk anyway, cool, And remember part of the MoU with Iran was that they said that all of the hostilities need to cease immediately, including in Lebanon. And then they threw in a line about recognizing the sovereignty and national borders of Lebanon, which is. A joke. I mean it was in there, don't get me wrong. They said it, they put it in there, but it's a joke. Because Asbala has taken over the southern portion of that country. They have disrupted the civilian leadership, you know, and they've been waging war on Israel four decades from southern Lebanon. So the Iranians don't respect the nation of Lebanon. The Iranians don't respect national borders anywhere. It's a revolutionary movement. Right and by the way, if they were to be displaced from Iran, where do you think they go? My bed is probably Britain at this point. So what happened over the last twenty four hours as jd Vance is pitching this thing and selling this thing out there to the American public, saying if you disagree with this, MoU that means you want a million boots on the ground in Iran, which is that's not true, but it doesn't matter because you've got to sell this thing. And he has become linked now to this deal. Right, we went over this yesterday. Not sure that's going to work out great for him. We'll see. So overnight Hesbelah, or I should say, yesterday Hesbelah violated the ceasfire and launched dozens of missiles and drones at Israeli's at Israel. They hit an Israeli tank, they killed four Israeli soldiers. Israel then responds with strikes against Hesbela targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon because that's where they have rooted themselves. Then Iran canceled its planned trip to Switzerland, saying we have quite enough of your cheese already, and they claim that Israel violated the ceasefire, which is. Like, that's yes again. These people are insane. You're dealing with lunatics. They will lie right to your face. Think about that. Hesbelah sends in strikes against Israel. Israel responds, and the Iranians say that Israel violated the ceasefire. So Hesbela attacks Israel, Israel responds, and then Iran uses the Israeli response as the excuse to delay diplomacy. It's almost as if they didn't really mean it when they signed onto the MoU And then the response from people in the West and the media, they say, this deal won't work if the US can't constrain Israel. Constrain Israel, why would I do that? Why would ill Israel not to bomb the ever loving Bejeebis out of whoever it was? That bombed them. I know what I would advocate if we got bombed, right, if we had a bunch of drones and missiles coming across our border from those wily Canadians, I know what I would be advocating, Like, you don't get to do that. You don't get to bomb my country unless you want to be bombed yourself. That's how that should work. But apparently, no, no, no, it's different because reasons Well. Jews, I mean, that's what that's what it is. So Hugh hewittt talk show host out of California, says, the battle between Israel and the terrorist group has Balla is far from over. The IDF suffered nine casualties yesterday, so four deaths, five injuries. That's an equivalent loss of three hundred US soldiers. Because Israel such a small country, right, so if you if you were to do a sort of proportionality extrapolation there, you would get three hundred US soldiers. So if the Canadians attacked America and killed or injured three hundred US soldiers, what do you think our response might be? Do you think it would be, Well, don't fire back, everybody. We must be constrained. Let us constrain ourselves. Do you think we would be saying that. Who would be saying that? Well, okay, well, democrats would be saying that. But aside from my Democrats, who would be saying that, of course, Israel is going to strike back. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, my directive is clear. Israel will not tolerate attacks on its soldiers or its territory, and hesbe Lah will pay a very heavy price for any such aggression. The IDF will act decisively to neutralize any threat to our forces and our territory. As I stated unequivocally, including yesterday, Israel will remain in the security zone in southern Lebanon for as long as necessary to protect the communities of northern Israel. Right so, Hesbala has been rooted out of this ten kilometer band of land that borders Israel, and the IDF has occupied that because they need a security buffer. So Hesbala cannot just fling a bunch of missiles and drones into these neighborhoods across the border, and because of the short distance, there's no time to shoot the stuff down or to get to your to get to the bomb shelters, and Lebanon as a government is incapable, if not unwilling, but largely incapable of uprooting Hesbalah from the southern part of its country. So if nobody else is going to do anything, Israel will. I don't blame them one bit for doing that. Any nation on this planet would do that. I'm eet Segall, Israeli journalist said, in response to repeated violations by Hesbelah, the IDF struck more than eighty targets and eliminated dozens of Hesbela terrorists in southern Lebanon. So that's the reporting. Hesblah fired off. Sixty three rockets at the IDF in forty eight hours. Sixty three rockets. But Israel has violated the MoU or. I guess no, because they're not a party to them ou right, Remember that neither was Lebanon. So why exactly would the Israelis be prohibited? Oh? Because Iran said that America has to restrain Israel. So when you hear people saying that America has to restrain Israel, know that that is coming from the Iranians. That's their talking point. All right. For over a year now, you've heard me talking about create a video. Great local co. Company in mint Hill that has helped more than two million families preserve their memories by turning old photos, VHS tapes, film reels and slides into lasting keepsakes. Now creative videos helping families and groups create brand new memories while they're traveling. Introducing group travel videos perfect for family reunions, church mission trips, group vacations, destination weddings, student trips, senior adult groups, sports teams, I mean, really any gathering of people that you care about that's traveling together. 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You can email Katie Katie at group travel videos dot com. Group travel videos from old memories to new adventures, preserving life's moments for a lifetime. All right, So the MoU Is m ouwing and the Iran the Nation of Iran just published new procedures for vessels trying to pass through the Strait of Hormones. Vessels will be required to submit passage requests at least forty eight hours before arriving at the straight for sixty days. No fees will be charged for security, safety and environmental protection services, and the Iranian government will also provide insurance coverage. Vessels will be required to coordinate their sailing route and passage schedule with the Iranian Persian Gulf AUTHORITI. Due to the quote current situation and certain safety risks, including the minds that we dropped in the waters that we don't know where they are anymore supposedly. So, yeah, that's. That's problematic. Benjamin Winegarden, he is a senior contributor at The Federalist also a contributor at Real Clear Investigations. He says Iran is mocking the US now over the Memorandum of Understanding via the very two mechanisms it used to get the MoU in the first place, Hormuz and Hesblah. Right, I just went through Hesblah's attack on Israel, and now they put out this statement about the strait of Hormus. These were the things that were supposed to have been taken care of, right as part of the MoU being signed. Right, that was the whole point. If President Trump wants the shooting to stop in Lebanon, the message has to go to Iran. Hesbelah is an Iranian proxy. The IRGC needs to order Hesbela to stop its attacks. This according to open Source Intel. As for an Israeli withdrawal, that's a separate issue. Remember, a cease fire is not a withdrawal. According to Israel. It will not happen until either southern Lebanon is cleared of Hesbelah fighters and infrastructure, Hesbelah disarms and until then, expecting Israel to leave while rockets are still being fired is not a realistic out come. Let's see here then. This just in up. This is from Ed Morrissey at hotair dot com. If Iran wanted to test Israel's reliance on the US, the regime must have found its answer already. A new ceasefire has gone into effect immediately. This time it's between Israel and has Blah directly. It came after interventions by the US and no, not Pakistan, sorry, Pukistan. No, not US and Iran. O who might also be a cutout for the Iranians who might be speaking for them, who might be really close. That's right, it's Kutar. That's right, Kutar. They've agreed to a ceasefire and Lebanon took effect at four pm local time, according to the Times of Israel. This time there's no ambiguity about the posture of the IDF. It will remain in southern Lebanon while other negotiations take place. This is a step back by Trump, who had reportedly asked Israel to withdraw as a means of enhancing prospects for a comprehensive peace deal with Iran. I have been saying this from the very beginning. Right, you have two circles. We're doing a then diagram because Kamala Harris's favorite thing in the world is then diagrams. So you got a ven diagram of US interests, you got or a circle of US interest you have a circle representing Israeli interest and they overlap, okay, but they are not completely overlapping. Israel has its own issues, its own interests. The US cannot negotiate away Israeli interests and vice versa to Israel. Right, they are fighting an existential war or their survival against people with an ideology that says they must eradicate all of the Jews. So they come at this from a different perspective. And while Trump and Vance they want this deal with Iron and they're focused on Iran and all of this, Israel has its own interest which is what makes JD. Vance's comments attacking Israel for protecting its own interests all the more. Surreal. He's slamming Israel during his talk show appearances, which of course, like I understand why. I mean, what's his name, Omi Malik or whatever it was, the guy that that funded his big venture to start, and back to Tucker Carlson's operation. I mean, this is the world that jd Vance came out of before he just burst onto the scene. And so like I get that he's in the Tucker Carlson camp on a lot of this stuff. But you guys have been saying from the very beginning that Israel has its own interests. We have our own interests. So when Israel protects its own interests and pursues those, why are you slamming them for that? This from Hagar Hajar Chamali, who's a foreign policy analyst and advisor, co founder of the Lebanon Israel Peace Alliance, formerly on the National Security Council US Treasury. She says Iran is clearly preparing to insist on Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon as part of the deal, which if the US agrees, would be catastrophic and shortsighted for several reasons. Number One, this is the Iranian regime's way of saying they dictate what happens in Lebanon, not the Lebanese people, so no sovereignty for Lebanon. Number two is rarely withdrawal without a details plan or process for Hesbelah's disarmament and for the Lebanese army to control the south would mean Hesbelah reassumes control where it wants and rebuilds. Things wouldn't even return to the status quo before the war. They would return to the way things were before the November twenty twenty four seasefire number three Lebanon Israel peace talks would likely collapse, and Hesbelah would likely find a way to go after all of the brave voices and Lebanese leaders who have spoken out in favor of peace. This is not a joke. Trump has to tell Iran, this is a non negotiable or risk undermining our own national security interest in losing what could become his greatest achievement. There is another way of looking at this, or another way of thinking about this which I find pretty interesting, which is, right now, you've got jd. Vance as the face of this deal, and nobody is happy with it except Tucker Carlson and his wing. Right. That's it. Nobody's happy with the terms of this deal. So does that mean that Trump gave jd Vance this moment to shine? It's all yours, man, this is what you wanted here. You go. Is Trump setting him up for failure by giving him what he wants? Or is that seven dimensional chess? I don't know. I just I heard the theory and I thought, you know what, that's interesting. So there you have it. Tim writes in an email regarding the MoU. I know that President Trump likes to make deals, but he seems to not realize that you cannot make a deal with religious nut jobs that includes religious nut jobs around the world and inside this country. Ran is trying to delay this until close to the November elections, then they will do something to embarrass Trump. Well, I mean, I think they already have. Like I thought that they were going to like wait a little bit, but they didn't even wait. They immediately tested the very two items that were the lynchpins of this whole MoU Straight of hor moves. They and there were reports last night that they were firing warning shots at vessels. So they're already exerting authority over the straight of Horror moves, saying we're allowed to do this under the mo OU. And then they're like, Israel needs to be restrained by America. They can't strike back on Hesbela after Hesbelah shelled them. Let me go over to the phones here chat with Russ. Hello, Russ, welcome to the show. I mean, pete, listen, everybody's saying, this is a lousy deal. It's a bad deal, it's a horrible deal. Well what about that old saw that if the deal is one that everybody hates, then must be a pretty good deal. No, well, no, that's not and uh that that's not entirely accurate, because there if you've got a deal that has no benefits, that's why you would hate that deal. Right. Well, I'm personally just being humorous, but I understand the concept. But you know, if everybody thinks that the deal thinks, see, must be pretty good. It's no, I think. Well, I think the old saw is that, you know, if if you don't get everything you want, right, nobody's going to be one hundred percent happy, But you got to be somewhat happy with the deal. And nobody appears to be happy with the deal except the two guys out there trying to sell this thing, which are Trump in dvance. Right, I don't know the Iranians are ecstatic with the deal because they never paid attention to any deals anyway, right, they does, right, So so anything that they're saying, like they have to say that, you know, this deal doesn't constrain us and at all, we still can pursue everything. Like they have to say all of that to their domestic audience, right, because they have to project strength and they know that they're not going to follow it anyway. Well, so they're just giving lip service to it and yeah, and then violating it. And this of course goes along with all of those people who are all over the place. Well, you know Obama had a deal with the Iranians. Well his deal was about as effective, right, and. It would have expired by now. Oh and by the way, it allowed them to build up all of their missile stockpiles and capabilities, right, which is the shield for the nuclear program pretty much. So, yeah, you are correct in the one thing, and a lot of people are correct. These people cannot be dealt with. No, It seems pretty obvious to me after you know, my entire life watching them operate. So but what do I know. I'm no diplomat russ I appreciate the call, brother, have a great weekend, you too, all right, Seeya Reuters reporting that Iran's Revolutionary guards set up secretive cells in Iraq to conduct drone attacks on Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. I know this is shocking as well. It's almost as if Iran is some sort of a state sponsor of terrorism or something. It's crazy this from Iran International. The previously unreported groups launched at least seven drone attacks between April twentieth and May seventeenth from desert areas near Basra and Samawa, targeting sites in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and uae The cells each made up of about ten elite Iraqi Shia fighters, including some members drawn from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq Umbrella Group, but operated outside its command structure and reportedly directly reported directly to the IRGC. Reuter said the shift reflected an effort by the IRGC to preserve Iran's ability to project force across the region while its proxy groups are weakened and its military and economic resources are depleted. The newer groups established by the IRGC appear smaller, more ideologically hardened, and more tightly Okay, at some point, like I keep hearing this, like oh now, this new group is even more hardline than the last group, Like guys. At some point, I'm. Not noticing any kind of a difference or distinction any longer, Like can't. It's like every Republican presidential nominee that comes along with Democrats, like, oh, this is even worse than the last guy. But the last guy was as bad as Hitler, Right, So at some point I'm I'm just gonna put them all together in one camp. Okay? Is that all? Right? Do I have to like try to try to say. That these guys are even worse than the last ones, because the last ones were pretty bad, pretty bad. Spencer, Welcome to the program, Hello Spencer. Hello, Hello, Hello, Thank you for having me. Yes, sir, I wanted to just further reiterate that eight years ago when Trump threw out the JCPOA because he said, rightfully so that it had some flaws in it. It wasn't a perfect plan. There is no perfect deal. Each size has to make possessions. But to come out, even just last night and say this deal is a total surrender of Iran, when Iran is getting three hundred building billion dollars, which we don't care if it's coming from American tax dollars or the other Arab nation you're still giving someone that you were telling us, this is the state, the world's biggest state sponsor of terrorism, yet you're negotiating with them. You know, always thought we don't negotiate with terrorism in this country. But this deal does not look like it benefits America in any way. Before Trump in Hexas and all these guys went over there four months ago, the straight up her mouse was open. It was international waters. No nation on this planet has tax international waters for trade of commerce. Now when this plan, not only is this going to be the first toll, but Oman in Iran are controlling it. Then Trump, he comes in, he puts all these sanctions on Iran in the beginning. Now in this deal, we're relieving the sanctions and they're getting almost one hundred billion of their money back, which Obama gave him fifty five billion, and everyone blew up. But Trump is essentially given this country almost five hundred billion dollars of revenue. What do you think they're going to do with this money. They're not going to rebuild schools, they're not building roads, they're not going to come on. This is going straight to Hesbala. Money is going to go straight to their proxies, they're going to buy more weapons. Then he tells us yes, just yesterday he was asked, what about the ballistic missile program that you have been telling Americans we're going to get rid of that. None of these objectives have been made. This is Vietnam all over again. You can't beat the enemy that isn't afraid of your posturing, because that's all Trump has done is posture. I'm glad, ask okay, now hang on, so and I hang on. You're getting now you're getting out over your skis okay. Number one, how long did Vietnam last? Decade? It was like fifteen years? Right. Also, Vietnam had boots on the ground and had had terribly and had had micromanagement. And by the way, militarily, we did actually win there militarily. The problem was and this is what was exposed of the American population and we saw it with this war as well, which is the American public. Once it turns on the war effort, then that's how the enemy wins. Right because yeah, because after the Tet offensive, it was a colossal failure for the viet Cong. Absolutely right, But the American media pitched it, framed it as a win for the viet Cong, and so then they were like, whoa, Okay, hang on a second, we actually may have the leverage now, right. So I would not make any comparisons to Vietnam with this. This thing was like a month of strikes, which, like I think the big mistake was stopping the strikes and doing the ceasefire in the first place. Well, I agree, Vietnam might not have been the perfect example, but my point is thirteen Americans died during dis offenses Vietnam. We lost all but we lost. We lost so many Americans. It wasn't that the Vietnamese are better militarily. We know we have the mightiest military in the world. And when you mentioned that the media persuades, well, Americans don't have the stomach for the bloodshit, especially with this war. We did this with the Vighanistan war. We don't have the stomach for this. And I don't think Trump understood that. I think he thought that he thought somewhere this was going to be Venezuela all over again, and it's not. Iran has a population of over one hundred million people. They're deeply radicalized, and we just gave them half a trillion dollars. All right, so hang on they Yeah, so Irana has a it's like ninety million people, but the vast majority of them are not radicalized. That's the I mean, that's you've got a minority that took over that country in the revolution in seventy nine. That's what That's why you keep seeing, right, But that's why you keep seeing these protests rise up every few years, is because the people are being held hostage by Islamic Jihattist radicals. And these are the Persian people. They do not want to be under the control of of the Mollas and the IRGC, but they are so oppressed and they have no weapons that they cannot effectively throw off this government. And so so yeah, I mean it's so on the Venezuela point, I think that definitely played a role. They thought maybe they could roll in there topple the regime pretty quickly with the strikes, and then through the ceasefire squeeze them. And we have been squeezing them, and I've been fine with waiting to let them collapse on their own. If you're going to you know, sanction them from this way, you know, to that way, But that doesn't work Oh sure it does. Oh sure. Does you know why the squeeze doesn't work? Because Iran has figured out we can hold the straight up hear moose hostage. The world doesn't believe that Iran's military is completely destroyed because Trump doesn't believe I's military is completely destroyed, because if he did, we would have Cark Island. We wouldn't have to do a blockade. We would be controlling traffic through the straight of poor Mooves without having the brag about sneaking boats out in the middle of the night. Why are you sneaking boats if you've if you've defeated this country. No, so okay, well no they so wait d all right, So he never said that they destroyed their entire military. We have destroyed their navy, we have destroyed their air force. They still do have a military. They have two separate militaries, right, They've got their civilian military and then they have their IRGC. And I think what the early plans, we were hoping that you would have a coup in that civilian military leadership right against the IRGC, because those two entities have always been there. There's always been a rift between those two entities. Now regarding the Strait of Hormuz. I've talked to I mean, I've been doing I've been covering this since the hostilities broke out the like. I have no doubt we could if we wanted to, we could open up that straight. I think there are reasons why we have not, and those reasons go beyond Deran. It goes to NATO, it goes to our European allies. It goes to the Gulf coast or the Gulf countries that are so far unwilling to do anything to keep this straight open. Right, So, if you're trying to so, if you're trying to re order the chessboard, if you're trying to make these countries take responsibility for policing their own region, right, how do you make them do that? I don't think. I don't think you do that with bombs. I think thinking that you can bomb Iran into submission. It's crazy that IRGC isn't just a military organization that deeply entrenched into the government. Yeah. Yeah, and they retire, they become government officients, they have lifetime appointmentships. So killing the. Head in this case didn't help it all. It only made it worse. I know, people are tired of hearing. Well, we got a worse God, no, not necessarily worse, but we instead of an eighty seven year old already dying, KAMENI, now we have a fifty five year old who was described as being a little more extreme. Dyah father's yeah, I'm not so sure about that. And the and the the rumors are that you know, he's gay, and that's not a thing that Iran suffers. Uh. I don't even think he's still alive. I really don't. There there's been no proof of life for this guy. I think the IRGC leader Valisi or whatever, I think. I think he's actually running the show and just like, oh yeah, I'll get that message to the Ayahtola, you know, I'll get his opinion on this and then. He reports back. I don't think that the Ayatola is actually alive. I think the Toola is alive. I just think if I'm a smart person who just watched my father be bombed, my brother in law, my wife, and all these other top level officials be bombed, I'm not sticking my head out the whole to go, hey, America, guess what, I'm still alive. We know that's not Yeah, he could record, but he could record a video. Yeah, but I mean all these are all hypothetic. It's not hypothetical. He's putting out statements. Why are you putting out a written statement? Yeah? Why would Why would you put out a written statement but not a video statement? But through other officials, through officials. That's why I'm saying he's not alive, because he would have done it. They would have, they would have sat down, they would have he would have recorded a statement and put it out there as a show of strength. You know what. You know why I know that this government superly underestimated this whole thing, because we have our president going the people that I'm talking to, I don't even think the US government knows who's in control of Iran right now. Idea people I'm talking to, the new group is more understanding and they seem like good people. And just today Iran called off the thing because of Lebannine in Israel. It's just forever back and forth, no matter who regard let's take out the Ayatola, whether he's dead or alive. Whoever we'rer gc with, Valisi or whatever, whoever. We're negotiating with, has understood that they have more leverage now than they did four months ago, more leveraged now than Obama ever gave him. The strait of her moose didn't get lost during the Obama era. I think this was a total miscalculation, in a total military failure on the US port. I think, all right, Spencer, I got I gotta run. I'm already like six minutes past the break. I'm probably gonna now have to go right to the top of the air news. But I appreciate the call. I mean, you make a lot of fair points. Spencer getting kudos from people on the text line. Very good call. This is how all calls should be. Spencer is an excellent call. Great back and forth. That's from Kyle. Let's see if Tim can misure up. Hello, Tim, welcome to the show. You have about a minute, sir. Okay, Well, I just want to say that I think that Trump is just biding his time to get through these elections, because we're not going to win these elections with five dollar gas. Let's get through the elections, hold the House and the Senate, and then he can do whatever he wants. And I guarantee you he'll go back in there and bomb the hell out of him if they put he can't. They've got him now because of the elections, but after the elections, they'll have nothing on him. So I mean this case. Yesterday, I said, I think that this is a stall tactic because like, I don't believe that the Iranians will ever adhere to any deal that they write, and so why would Trump be doing this? And I tend to agree. I think this is about getting a sixty day you know, ceasefire essentially in place, maybe get an extension to it. Then you have your final deal crafted and that gets you to the mid term election, and then after that, you know you can count on the Mulla's messing it up. So, hey, Trump is stalling now, right, But. The Mullas know that he's doing this. They are aware of his electoral pressure, so they're going to make things difficult for him so they get to exert their leverage. Tim, I appreciate the call, thanks man. Yeah, And it's not a good place to be in. And this is what's got a lot of Americans angry about it. But then again, they're angry at four dollar gas, So like, what is Trump supposed to do? He should have done it in the first place. Well, I mean when came down the Golden Escalator, he said, Iron's not going to get a nuke. So here is that? All right? That'll do it for this episode. Thank you so much for listening. I could not do the show without your support and the support of the businesses that advertise on the podcast, so if you'd like, please support them too and tell them you heard it here. You can also become a patron at my Patreon page or go to dpetecalanarshow dot com. Again, thank you so much for listening, and don't break anything while I'm gone.