Iran War Update: Is Trump losing his resolve on Iran? | Hour 1

What's going on. Thank you so much for listening to this podcast. It is heard live every day from noon to three on WBT Radio in Charlotte. And if you want exclusive content like invitations to events, the weekly live stream, I daily show prep with all the links, become a patron, go to thepeakclendershow dot com, make sure you hit the subscribe button. Get every episode for free right to your smartphone or tablet. And again, thank you so much for your support. Alrighty, so you're Iron War update so much for that ceasefire. I feel like I'm saying that. I feel like I've been saying that every weekend for like the last two months, you know. So let's run through some of the developments as well as some of the analysis based on the developments. First we start with Amit Siegaal. He runs a newsletter. He's at It's channel twelve in Israel, and he does a newsletter called It's noon in Israel. I don't know what that name means, but it may be like that, maybe that's the time his program comes on or something. I don't know. So he says, it's Monday, June eighth. Then the masquerade is over. After last night's direct Iranian strikes on Israel. The fundamental question driving the last two months of quote unquote ceasefire has been shoved into the open. And that question, that fundamental question is who controls the status quo post epic fury? Who controls the status quo? Is it Iran or is it the United States? And for now he says, the answer is Iran. So it all started Sunday, Sunday, Sunday when Hesbelah, which you'll recall is a proxy of Iran, that Iran always claimed it had nothing to do with, but now at least acknowledges Yeah, that's the that's the frontline of our war. And by tying the Iran hostilities to Hesbelah like. They have made that very clear. Now I went over this last week. So Hesblah fires a barrage of rockets towards northern Israel. That was another violation of the quote unquote ceasefire. So a couple hours later, well about six hours later, Israel responds by conducting a targeted air strike against a Hesbelah headquarters in the southern suburbs of bay Rout, which is what Iran said, don't you dare strike beyrout as if there was some sort of high value targets in the bay Root area or something, and there was. So. In response, about seven hours after Israel did its attack on Hesbala headquarters, Iran then launches two waves of ballistic missiles targeting the Ramat David or David air base in northern Israel, declaring that the strike was direct retaliation for the beay Root bombing. Then overnight, Donald Trump spoke to the media, asserting dominance over the situation. He told the Financial Times that Netta Yahoo quote doesn't call the shots, which, Yeah, Tucker Carlson hardest hit on that one, along with Megan Kelly, Candice Owens, Nick fluentes I and Carrol Martyr made like all of yeah, the wolk right. He says, we don't need another one and insisted to NBC that is pending peace deal is still viable. It's okay, it's okay. It's just a little what, it's just a little slimy. It's okay, it's okay, it's just a little dirty. That's a reference to the Lying Pig episode of the Simpsons documentary. Air defense sirens went off across Israel following a missile launch. Then this morning at six am from the Hoodies, no blowfish in Yemen. The projectile was successfully intercepted, no casualties reported. About an hour later, Israel officially announced a launch of a wave of retaliatory air strikes on military targets and petrochemical facilities in central and western Iran, explicitly ignoring Trump's pressure to stand down. Monday. About twenty minutes later, so remember they're a little bit ahead of us. This is all at seven twenty a m. Now over in Israel, loud explosions over Jerusalem as the IDF confirmed it is actively intercepting a fresh wave of missiles launched from Iranian territory. So another round of Iranian missiles launched at Israel. And I mean, Siegel says, what made Tehran bold enough to strike Israel directly like this? And the answer is Donald Trump. Tehran may not feel the first class air force or navy, I mean, they don't really have any of that anymore, but they possess the absolute best detection equipment in the world for one specific signal, and that is a lack of willingness to fight. For years, Hamas and Hesbaalade detected this exact hesitation in Israel and exploited it to gain ground. Today Iran is doing the exact same thing to the United States. It comes down to the old idiom. Give them an inch and they'll start firing at a mile of your sovereign territory. Once again, I feel they need to point this out because so many people ignore this. No other nation would permit themselves to be the target of constant rocket attacks by its neighbors. If Mexico started flinging drones and ballistic missiles into Texas or New Mexico or Arizona or California, well, in California, we may just let them do that, But in any of those other states, like we would level Mexico the whole area, right like, we would not permit that to occur. Although I say that so I'm not really sure. I guess it would depend on who the president is. So we have two months of projected American weakness and a blind obsession with securing a deal, and that's brought us straight to this moment. He says. Tehran smells the desperation and knows exactly what the US is terrified of, and that's losing so far. It seems Iran guessed correctly. Overnight, Trump went on Fox News with a message for Tehran, which was, quote, you shot your missiles. That's enough. Get back to the table and make a deal, which the Iranians, he still believes, want to do. I do not agree with that. Any deal that you cut with the Iranians is just a time buying measure. It's just a delay tactic. They're not going to abide by any terms of any deal because they don't. That's just what they do. It's their jam. In so many words, Trump is simply repackaging Joe Biden's infamous April twenty twenty four warning to Iran, which was simply translated that meant don't remember when he said that, do do. Judging by the multiple separate ballistic barrages launched from Iranian territory this morning, it promises to be just as effective. So Israel is handcuffed by a constraint, which is Washington's hunger for a deal tied to US diplomatic goals. Israel's retaliatory strikes have been hollowed out. Yesterday they hit evacuated headquarters in Beirut. This morning they hit secondary petrochemical sites and Mashasha because how that's pronounced deliberately, leaving Iran's critical energy infrastructure untouched. Israel's using a light touch because They're more scared of Trump's reaction than Iran is. But the collapse of deterrence is not just an Israeli problem. Iran is sprinting up the escalation ladder. If Tehran learns that it can strike Israel with impunity, the next time they may feel like throwing a tantrum. The Gulf energy facilities will be in their crosshairs, followed by American military bases. Probably right. The vacuum of resolve also breathes new life into the Hoodies no Blowfish. The longer they operate without facing the full wrath of the US military, the more confidence builds, and the steeper the price will be when Washington is finally forced to intervene. However, I meet Seagull. He provides three options going forward. What are those options? Good question? I will tell you in a moment. You know. Stories are powerful. They help us make sense of things, to understand experiences. Stories connect us to the people of our past while transcending generations. They help us process the meaning of life and art stories are told through images and videos. 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I mean, oh, that's fair, I mean we don't. Look, I've said this from the beginning, and I actually saw somebody like way more prominent than I. I don't remember who it was, But they had a tweet over the weekend or maybe this morning that said what I have been saying. So I think this proves beyond a reasonable doubt that they listened to my program, but they they used my example, which is, you know, Israel has its own national interests, America has its own national interests. And if you do a then diagram that Kamala Harris loves so much, it's her favorite thing in the world, apparently, and if you do a ven diagram, there is overlap of those two circles right where we have shared mutual national interests, but the circles are not completely overlapping. There are areas outside where our national interests do not align with theirs or are not identical to theirs, and vice versa. And that's as it should be. They have their own national interests and there's only so much like that. Obviously, Israel's made a decision on where they're going to go with this war. Right they are done sitting around taking rocket fire from Iran, its proxies, these gie hottest maniacs all around them. They're just freaking done with it. And so yeah, if you want to try to get a deal with Iran to try to settle this thing in a way that doesn't cost a whole munch more lives and military ordinance and activity. Go for it, Trump, go for it. However, we're going to take out some stuff like we will do that if we feel like we have to do that, and that's what Israel did. So there are three options, according to Amit Siegaal going forward for the US, which is one would be capitulation. Israel would have to absorb the latest attack and it would have to allow Iran to establish a new normal of firing occasional missiles with no consequences, which, by the way, that's off the table now because Israel did respond. Another option is restoration of deterns the US end Israel could strike back decisively and Tran decides to absorb that blow. That scenario reasserts American dominance over the region, stabilizes the Lebanese front by cementing the rule that any attack on the Israeli North will be answered with devastation or you could see rapid escalation. Third option basically resume kinetic activity, resume the war. That campaign may only last a few days before another cease fire and a return to the status quo. He goes on to conclude, there is, however, a possibility that this highly public clash is all a carefully manufactured illusion, that Trump and Ninton Yahoo have actually been coordinating this masquerade. Why would they do that to load Tehran into a false sense of security before a devastating strike. But even if this is a brilliant game of geopolitical chess, the clock is ticking. Every moment these attacks go unanswered, the US bleeds credibility, and the more fatal it becomes Tonnton Yahoo's electoral survival. As I said, they have their own interests right This from the Institute for the Study of War. A Hesbela rocket attack on northern Israel yesterday threatened to completely collapse the ceasefire in the Middle East. Israel responded to that attack by conducting an air strike in Beirut's southern suburbs. Iran then responded with a missile attack designed to deter future Israeli attacks against Hesbelah while avoiding escalation into a resumption of full scale war. Iran had launched more than twenty ballistic missiles at Israel. All were either intercepted or landed in open areas. The Hoodies No Blowfish in Yemen fired two ballistic missiles at Israel. One was intercepted, the other fell short and failed to even reach Israeli territory. In response, Israel carried out two waves of strikes against military targets in Iran. Israel and the US reportedly conveyed a message to Iran there will be no further strikes if Iran refrains from launching additional attacks. And then Farse News, the comically named Farce News, that's Iranian state media. They announced that Iran's armed forces announced an end of military operations against Israel, but they warnant of harsher attacks if Israel resumes attacks on Lebanon. Just to point to clarification there, it's not really an attack on Lebanon, per se, It's an attack on Hesba Lah, which have been parasites in the sovereign nation of Lebanon for like forty years. From the text line, Kevin says, it blows my mind that Iran is even able to launch anything. There are so many things looking down on Iran right now, dragon ladies, reapers, sbirs, and from the US and Israeli O Fect thirteen and nineteen. I just don't get it so that we know where they're launching from, and Israel hit one of the launch sites, so yeah, and see it, and they can intercept the stuff. Paul, Israel has. Been the only legitimate ally in this instance specifically, but I think in numerous other instances as well, and as far as the situation goes, I think the military for the US and Israel just needs to open the floodgates and finish what they started. They need to eliminate all threats associated to Iran, including their proxies, and stop with the garbage about a deal, because Iran is not gonna honor anything and they never have. I wonder how many people find it amusing that since Trump and Hexon, I don't know what Hexon is. I guess Iran or no. Israel said we obliterated Iran's capability. This is a voice to text obviously, since Trump said we obliterated Iran's capabilities for missiles, how many people find it so abusing that clearly that has been the most false comment I think it's been made in the last three months. I don't recall. I believe it was Raisin Kane, right, General Kane who said that it was somewhere around seventy percent of their missile capabilities. So remember that you got the entire production, assembly and launching capabilities, so you got the production side of things. But then you also have all of their munitions that they had stored, right, and so they still had access to some of those sites as well, and you have what was referred to as the Mosaic strategy by the Iranian leadership. After Operation Midnight Hammer. They gave they empowered the sort of the front line leaders all around the country that were in charge of you know, small battalions or whatever. They gave them permission to act on their own because they knew that there might come upon point where the leadership. Gets decapitated, and so the. You know, the the units that are dispersed throughout the country would have to be making decisions on their own rather than waiting for a command from leadership that has now been whacked, right, and so like that's also part of it as well. That's you know, and I've gone over all of that in the past. Now, there is a guy named I mean sorry, Iman Dean is his name, and I forgot his background. I've quoted him before he's a Middle East guy. He's worked in uh, you know, international diplomacy and that sort of stuff. Now he does a podcast because everybody is legally required to, and he says there's a genuinely bizarre psychological dynamic unfolding right now around the war. Trump appears convinced that the war is unpopular at home, that Americans want out, and that domestic priorities must now take precedence, even if that means accepting a deal that only weeks ago would have looked humiliated by American standards. Remember when he said, you know, unconditional surrender. But if the current trajectory continues, with Tehran refusing compromise on the nuclear file, ballistic missiles proxies, and now effectively trying to invent a new doctrine around controlling the Strait of Hormuz, we could end up watching something that looks disturbingly like unconditional surrender. But for the US. And here's the irony that's frying my brain right now. Even some of the people inside the US political circles who opposed the war are suddenly horrified at the prospect of a half finished war. Because an unfinished war is not peace. A half finished war risks looking like strategic exhaustion. It risks damaging American prestige, deterns, and, by extension, the credibility of the mighty dollar itself. People forget something important, which is America first at home only works if America remains first abroad. Why the dollar is not magic paper blessed by the gods of Wall Street. It sits upon three pillars reserve currency status, energy, trade dominance, and global trade settlement. Those pillars are reinforced when the US projects global military strength and reliability. Trump, fearing the war's unpopular, may have accidentally made it more popular. He calls this the weirdest part of all. By appearing too eager to leave it unfinished, suddenly people are imagining the consequences of an Iran that is eschatologically and fanatically emboldened after surviving the confrontation that the Iranians will be thinking, you know, the unseen divine hands of the hidden Imam. Makdi did it. And then that still threatens the arteries of global economy through the Strait of Hormuz, And he says, this is where my brain officially melts. Was this deliberate? Is this deliberate. Is this the madman theory? Is this incoherent incoherence or is it coherent incoherence designed to create maximum unpredictability? Did Trump intentionally manufacture uncertainty to pressure Tehran? Or are we all collectively trying to reverse engineers strategy out of chaos because nobody actually knows what's happening. H I have said from the beginning, I do not believe in the you know, Trump is playing seventy dimensional chess. Hey Like, I hear people who have said, you know that you know, trust the plan. These people are referred to as the plan trusters, And I guess on this specific issue, I tend to want to trust the plan because I don't believe it's actually Trump's plan. I think he's got people around him, these military war planners and such that do have plans. Why know they have plans? They've had plans for forty to fifty years right on Iran specifically, I keep coming back to this. Everyone keeps saying, what why is the straight up We're moves and it's still closed in all of this, And I keep saying, like, do you think that we could not open it up if we wanted to if we wanted to, right, we could just level everything along the coastlines and reopen it, sink everything they've got, blow up all of the mines, whatever do. We could do all of that if we wanted to. So why aren't we? And I haven't heard a good explanation except that we want it to remain status quo, that the administration wants it to remain status quo. With this blockade, which by the way, like a thousand ships have actually gone through, they just turn off their stuff so the Iranians can't track them. So on this, I guess I am a planned truster. Your mileage may vary. Jennifer uh says, I don't know who is telling this stuff to Trump, but he needs to stop listening to them immediately. It's the same thing with mass deportations. I'm in. Dean also pointed out that the Iranian regime understands only one language, and that is brute force. Right. Trump prefers a deal, and that's what he's been trying to do, so he can, you know, get a Nobel Prize or whatever. Right good, And he's trying to lock down, you know, Abraham Accords, trying to get Muslim countries to join in on the Abraham Accords, create a security pact, and that then frees the Middle e or frees us up from having to police the Middle East. If they've got a security packed going on in the Middle East, that frees us up. So if you don't want us in the Middle East, you should want there to be some resolution to that area to the extent that they will then provide for their own mutual defense against Iran, because Iran is the largest, you know, state sponsor of terrorism. That's the deal. So that frees our military up. We don't have to keep all of the bases over there. They can use them, right, they can take them over whatever. Sonnywright, who is a commentator, he says, Israel is striking Hesbalon Lebanon, a terrorist group that attacks Israel and illegally occupies Lebanon. The position here is that Iran will strike Israel unless Israel let's Hesbala strike Israel. And Trump's position is Israel must let it because Iran wants peace, and that's just dumb. It's dumb. Iran does not want peace. There is a reason why they have funneled probably at this point trillions. But you know, hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars into building out this revolutionary proxy front. And that's what they are. It's right there in their name, right, the Revolutionary Guard. They are an exporter of the revolution. Their revolution is Marxist jihadism. That's their revolution. It's a it's a form of Marxist revolution, but it is still the same. It's informed by Marxism. That's what the Ayatola was doing when he was holed up in France before he flew back to Iran in nineteen seventy nine. This from let me see here the Meher news agency. Taran says it has sealed off the Strait of Hormuz, which we already did but okay, and the bob El Mandeb Strait and a source link to the parliament speaker Gallibath told state media the regime's next move is targeting oil and energy infrastructure in US Allied Gulf states, framing it as a re retaliation for the Israeli strike on Mashah's petrochemical complex. Okay, so there, So what is it that they are doing. They are threatening war crimes, right, that's what they're doing. So international law experts out there like you have, You've got now the casus belly to go after them and blow up their stuff. They say they're going to blow up your stuff, you should blow up their stuff first. Like that's where we are. Oh but what about the oil markets and all of that. Yep, probably gonna be bad. Not gonna get any better though. See here's the thing there are there's a whole school of thought that I believe is rooted in ignorance, which is this, this this disbelief that this would not have happened otherwise. And I just disagree with that. I just the stuff I have read about the Iranian regime over the years. This could end no other way. This is what they want. Right, If you want to be peaceful and you want to walk down the street and somebody comes up to you and they do not want to remain peaceful towards you. They prefer instead to attack you. Your desire for peace does not matter at that point, it doesn't. You now have to fight or die, right, Like, those are your options. See, those are the options that Israel's presented with, have been for a long time. They tried to ignore it too, They tried to to, you know, not believe that this was really the case if we just kind of, you know, placate everybody, take a bunch of rockets every now and again and shoot them out of the sky, and okay, you know, we'll get along and eventually this will kind of burn itself out. No, it's not so October seventh changed that paradigm for Israel. That's like to me, it's very clear, very clear. The IDF spokesperson, Brigadier General fi Defrin said, quote prepared for a range of scenarios over the past two months. We were at peak readiness in this round of conflict. We are working to weaken the Islamic Republic as much as possible. The IDF briefs military correspondence and said they are preparing for at least several days of fighting. The Americans are assisting in intercepting the missiles. So far, Ron launched twenty two to twenty four missiles, and the Hoodies no blowfish have fired two. From the IDF's perspective, this is not a new operation, but a continuation of Operation Roaring Lion. Laedan Buderizeriti is a member of Iran's parliament's National Security Committee, and he said Iran possesses weapons that it has not yet used and that could disrupt daily life in Israel if deployed. We have weapons that, if used, would disrupt the lives of the Zionists, and then provided no further details open source intel reports. Sharing images of footage of missile impacts nights is now a criminal offense in Iran, according to the country's attorney general. So you're not allowed. If you're in Iran, you're not allowed to show anybody the damages. The head of Iran's Expeditionary councils that Iran's strike in defense of Lebanon was not merely a military response but the formal declaration of a new strategic doctrine. Doctrine Sadek Amli Larajani said the operation sent a clear message that any attack on one pillar of the accents of resistance would draw a response extending beyond geographical borders and could reshape regional dynamics. Again, all of the bluster of Baghdad Bob, but the key here is that Iran is linking Hesba Lah to it. Right, So now these two entities are one, which Israel, I'm sure is pretty satisfied with, because they're going to go after both of them. All right, that'll do it for this episode. Thank you so much for listening. I could not do the show without your support and the support of the businesses that advertise on the podcast, so if you'd like, please support them too and tell them you heard it here. You can also become a patron at my Patreon page or go to thepetecleanershow dot com. Again, thank you so much for listening, and don't break anything while I'm gone.