Iran War Update: Deciphering the MOU | Hour 2

What's going on. Thank you so much for listening to this podcast. It is heard live every day from noon to three on WBT Radio in Charlotte. And if you want exclusive content like invitations to events, the weekly live stream, my daily show prep with all the links, become a patron, go to vpekclendershow dot com. Make sure you hit the subscribe button. Get every episode for free right to your smartphone or tablet, And again, thank you so much for your support. Going over the fourteen bullet points in the memorandum of as I call it misunderstanding between the US and Iran, where it's like there's some text now that's been released, but the Iranians seem to think it says one thing, and we got jd Vance running around saying no, no, it's something else. And so it's still just I can read the words on the page, but there are no firm provisions here. Everything is couched in this, you know, diplomat ease language that we will undertake to we will endeavor to try, we will you know, begin the framework of a negotiation to settle a dispute in the future after a certain time period. On all of that, and I get that to a large degree. I do get that, especially if you're just trying to get something in place to calm the markets, bring the price of oil down open the strait of horror moves, which, by the way, Donald Trump. Then see this is the thing. Like the comments that he has been making are causing even more confusion too. And that's Donald Trump. It's always been Trump says one thing, says something else, right, It's just back and forth all over the place. And so when it comes to the strait of horror moves, which we went over the first seven of the fourteen bullet points in the last hour, I'm going to pick up with bullet point eight. But on the straight of horror moves itself, this is what Trump was saying with regard to the. Closure and the reopening. He's telling this to the. We didn't do this, Dale. We could have dropped more bombs for another three weeks, two weeks, four weeks, two years. You would never have the harmers straight open. You would never have success. Your market would have, instead of going up at levels that nobody's ever seen before, would go down at levels that nobody ever saw it before, maybe except for nineteen twenty nine or whatever. Right, so I think a lot of people that I'm I'm seeing they're interpreting these comments to mean US. Okay, but I am watching this. He's at the G seven and he's talking directly to the audience, and who is that these are the European countries he so like, I keep getting this sense. I have this feeling because of his comments about NATO, his comments about the UN, his comments about allies. Right, it seems like like he is telling them we could have kept bombing, sure, but we did this. For you because you guys are getting nailed. And if the straight up hoem moos doesn't open, you're the one that's going to be taking it on the chin, right, not us. So that's got everybody upset, as did his comments about the ballistic missiles that you know what, actually they get to keep some of their ballistic missiles because everybody else in the region has them. This also has caused great consternation because that was one of our objectives, because the ballistic missile program was being used to shield them from any attack that would disrupt or destroy their nuclear program. So now he's saying, yeah, you can keep some ballistic missiles, that's okay. Well, that's not okay, that was one of your objectives regarding the nukes. Point number eight. Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure, which they attempted to do with North Korea. They tried to buy a bomb from North Korea. It shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. America and the and Iran. They keep referring to it as the Islamic Republic of Iran every single time, So I'm just trying to skip ahead there. So the US and Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, and with the minimum methodology to be down lending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. Okay, so we don't have a mechanism, but we will develop a mechanism to do this. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to Iran's nuclear needs. Iron wanted that part stuffed in there based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. So they're still going to get to do some nuclear stuff. Why what about the offer we will give you whatever nuclear material you need for your civilian reactors. Remember that offer. They rejected that. They do not need to be enriching anything. They have lost privileges. Who are you to say that, Pete, Well, the global superpower and that's not how that should work. But you got any other way because they don't adhere to any international law. There a signator to the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty and then they violated the Bajeebis out of that. So the final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States and Iran acknowledged the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them. Okay, so we'll work it out. We're going to talk about this. We're going to get to some agreement on this. That's going to be part of the negotiations towards the final deal. So this is simply an MoU It doesn't really mean anything. In my book, it. Doesn't and if anybody starts violating it, then it's dead. Right. Let me jump over and get Travis On. Hello Travis, Welcome to the show. Hey Pete. I try to be an objective thinker, and I approach these things critically. And what that means for me is when someone as a criticism of an action that's taking place, it's often a partisan thing. But I don't try to just reject it right off the bat. I tried to assess it right, and in doing that, I came up with a narrative to try to explain what's going on. And all of that's been challenged in the last three days, and I'm just very confused. So some of the criticisms I took in and kind of put him in as data points, where, all, right, if we're trying to overthrow the government of Iran, why did we target the Iatola and then some of these big names like Lerajani, But then stop at Vahiti, who no one had ever heard of. I'd never heard of Tahiti before, and now it sounds like he's basically running the place and he's more extreme than anybody before. So I take that and I go Okay, So I guess the goal wasn't to remove the extremists, it was something else, right, So I've tilted this back to Venezuela when it was a criticism, why are we being these drug boats when they're not actually carrying fentanyl and they're not going to the US. And so I looked at that and I said, okay, well, it's because these are cocaine boats going to Africa and then up into Europe and it's financing terrorist groups Russia and China. Right, So I thought, okay, So the big theme this year is financial networks and energy networks in the world. So we go into China, and not China, we go into Iran, we shut down horror moves. The goal isn't really to overthrow the Iranian government. It's the pressure China maybe to get a deal in Ukraine. And as an added bonus, we get these cash infusions into alternative energy sources like Argentina and Brazil. But then we reached this agreement over the weekend, and I'm refreshing constantly thinking, Okay, now we're going to announce an agreement in Ukraine, because why would Trump give up that leverage unless he got something from China, like an agreement in Ukraine, you know, pressuring, pressuring in Russia. But that didn't happen. So now I'm just really confused, and I don't I don't really have a point beyond that, just to say this agreement doesn't sound and I don't know all the details. It doesn't sound at the face better than what Obama had. So there's got to be something else, right. Well, that's what I'm I mean, I mean, look, there's I think we can both agree that there are there are strategies and tactics that we don't know about, right. I think that's a fair assumption that there are things being discussed that would never cross our minds because we don't see the dots to even connect them, right. And So I I think a lot of the a lot of the the doomers on this, and a lot of the pessimists and the ones that are like most outraged about it. And I'm not talking about the people who hate Trump already, because they're gonna they're gonna bash whatever he does. But people who are now like they now feel betrayed, They feel this is a terrible deal, this is a surrendering all of that. I think a lot of them are experiencing what you are and I am, which is this confusion as to why are we doing this and you're searching for some rational explanation for doing this stuff because we don't see all of the dots, you know. I think that the only positive I see right off the bat is there was a cash and usion into alternative energy routes. But I don't know that that justifies a war, right. Well, Look, I think, I mean, I think, I think the amount of damage inflicted on the regime has set them back years, maybe more than a decade, maybe maybe two decades. Right. They sustained like anywhere from one to two trillion dollars worth of damage, So that's going to leave a mark. Right, So in any attempt to rebuild whatever they had, they're going to have to to spend a lot of that money to rebuild all of that infrastructure, and that's gonna take time. So that's a positive, I know. Like, and so the willingness to inflict that sends a message that like, here's the stick, we are willing to use it. This president is willing to do this, and he will do it again. I don't think he wants to hit the oil refineries and the desalinization plants because if he does, then Iran hits the Gulf nations, oil refineries and desalinization plants. Right, so this is a way to kind of like, Okay, we're going to use this stick. Now here are all these carrots, and you can be a regular country, but you have to you got to behave like a regular country. And we're gonna find out once again, is Iran primarily a revolutionary ideology or is it a nation? I suspect they're gonna they're gonna go with revolutionary ideology because I believe that's what it is. Thank you, Yeah, man, I appreciate it. Travis good call. You know, stories are powerful. They help us make sense of things, to understand experiences. Stories connect us to the people of our past while transcending generations. They help us process the meaning of life. And our stories are told through images and videos. Preserve your stories with Creative Video. Started in nineteen ninety seven and Mint Hill, North Carolina. It was the first company to provide this valuable service, converting images, photos and videos into high quality produced slide shows, videos and albums. The trusted, talented and dedicated team at Creative Video will go over all of the details with you to create a perfect project. Satisfaction guaranteed. Drop them off in person or mail them. They'll be ready in a week or two. Memorial videos for your loved ones, videos for rehearsal, dinners, weddings, graduations, Christmas, family vacations, birthdays, or just your family stories, all told through images. That's what your photos and videos are. They are your life told through the eyes of everyone around you and all who came before you, and they will tell others to come who you are. Visit creative video dot com. Let me get to some massages from the text line Who this is from? That's favorite Russ who says international waters Pete. That sounds a lot like geography, and it's my birthright as an American. Do not have to know geography. That's true. That is true. I say it all the time. That's true. That is our birthright. That's why we fought a revolution. Do do Do Do Do Do do do. Okay, that's not on topic. Darryl mm hmmm. Oscar says, the Iran stuff is all about China and Russia. I've made the connection on this stuff to China before China was getting so much of its oil, you know, on the black market from the shadow fleet, which by the way. If you know, if this mo OU actually results in normalization basically of oil trade from Iran, then the shadow fleet goes away, and you know China now has to be paying market rates for their oil. So you know, we'll see. Okay, that is a message to Vince Trump will do anything to win the Nobel Peace Prize, including peace. Yeah. I don't know. I don't know. Seven oh four number do da says Pete. This is just an mo OU, not a final agreement, and they will never live up to the mo OU. So this is just a way to get oil moving in lower prices. I tend to agree. That's why I said, I think this is all just a stall tactic to calm the markets and to get this off the front pages until the midterms. The mad mullets can and win. I'll act up before the midterms, but Trump doesn't have to put the big hit and big squeeze on them with the renewal of the blockade until after the midterms. And then I predict carg Island will be taken and the blockade will resume, and the middle stocks that remain and any rebuilding will be taken out. Then it will be up to the Iranian people. Yeah, and I've seen this also that you know, they the Iranian people, they're gonna need time, they're gonna need arms, some training and all of that, and so that can't be done on a dime. And I've covered this before that there was a plan initially that included the installation of former Iranian president Mack Mood. I'm a dinat jacket or I'm a dinner jacket, I'm a dinner job. No, that's it. That he was supposed to like take over after the decapitation strikes, and there was like this whole plan and then it just it all fell apart and Akmedenijod you know, took off into hiding and so yeah, I'm not sure if that was part of this as well, could have been. Holly says, I think it's intentionally confusing the whole secret lies in confusing the enemy so that he cannot fathom our real intent. So sayeth Sunsu Uh Yeah again. Like I'm not this, I'm not one of these guys that says Trump is playing seventeen dimensional chess. I do believe he is a chaos negotiator, though he just comes in throws a bunch of wild stuff around, creates a lot of confusion, and then uses that to extract concessions. Dude, let's see. Here, Timoteo says, I can foresee a fleet of US tankers freely navigating the straight while no others can because Iran knows they will have to. They will have the crap bombed out of them if they touch a US tanker. That gives the US control over the Middle East oil to the point that we get to charge a fee on oil produced and shipped through the Strait. It could be as simple as a fee for foreign tankers to navigate the straight undercover of US flag. I don't know if we would be able to toll the straight either. Oh, missile stocks, not middle stocks, missile stocks that remain. Yeah, again, like, I am not certain about what the strategy here is, and I think nobody really is outside of maybe the people negotiating this stuff inside the White House, right if they even have like a long term strategy, if they're doing these kinds of feints and you know, and I don't know they're masquerading as you know, good faith actors and all of this, but hey, you know what Iran has they have a say here too. You know, if they want to go ahead and actually, you know, try to make this thing work, I'm just kidding the other They're not going to do that. You may want to sit down for this. This is incredibly shocking. Hesblah has just launched a massive missile barrage at Israel, which would be a direct violation of the ceasefire and the MoU and whatever other piece of paper that these crazy, g hottest lunatics have signed on too. So there is that. And by the way, the reason obviously is that you know, Iran wants Hesbelah to be able to keep firing on Israel. So Israel responds, and then Iran goes crying to America and says, you're violating the terms of the MoU. We're going to scrap the MoU because you're not reigning in Israel. You got to rein them in. We don't have to reign in Hesbelah. That's a separate organization, even though like they're a proxy of ours and we demanded that they be included. So what's the point of all of that. It's to drive a wedge between Israel and America. That's the reason point number nine of the memorandum of misunderstanding. Pending the final deal, the United States of America and Iran agree to maintain the status quo. Okay. Iran will maintain the status quo. Of its nuclear program, and the US will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region. Zero point ten. US undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU and until the termination of sanctions, the US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services including banking, transactions, insurance, transportation, et cetera. So this is going to allow Iran to move oil through the Strait of Moves immediately, and so now they will be able to sell their oil. I believe that's estimated to generate about five billion dollars for the Iranians. The US. Under ZO point eleven, the US undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic. Upon the implementation of the MoU. The US and Iran will mutually agree upon the procedures related to the release of these funds. Okay. So that sounds. Yeah, make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds upon implementation of the MoU. So that's like immedia. Okay, So we're releasing their funds, and I think that number is somewhere around three hundred billion dollars, which utterly dwarfs what Obama gave them during the negotiation. Such funds, whether retain the original account or transfer, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank, so they get to decide where it goes. I'm sure they won't decide to give any of it to Hesbala or to any of their proxies. Moss, the hoodies. Not going to use it to build more missiles, not going to buy missiles, right, not going to do anything like that. I'm sure ultimate beneficiaries designated by the Central Bank of Iran the US undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly. That's the part that's got a lot of people upset. Why are you releasing all of this money as part of the MoU before they've done anything. They haven't even done anything. They just signed the thing. It's we're in day one. The US and Iran agreed that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MoU and further compliance of the final Deal Point thirteen. After signing the MoU, and subject to the beginning of the implementations of Paragraphs one, four, five, ten, and eleven of the MoU and the continuing implementation of these measures, the US and Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively. The final deal will be endorsed by binding UN resolution. That was point fourteen. So those are the fourteen points. Admitting that a deal with Iran was the only way that America could open the Strait of Hormuz. Is the declaration of the end of the superpower. That is, that is a sentiment being expressed all over the place. I'm not sure this was a great deal. Again, I am willing to entertain, Like, I have a little bit. I've got like a ten percent positivity here. I'm holding out hope. There's a lot of ambiguity. I have a lot of skepticism, but I'm like, I'm not I'm not the all is lost. This is a complete surrender. I'm not there. We'll see how this unfolds over sixty days, but right now, my reading of it. This is not great. This is not great. If this is on. Its face, what the intent is to do all of this stuff right, and like, this is what we want to see done. And obviously we have to wait until they negotiate the actual terms of the final deal, and we'll see what the final deal is. I don't like the fact that you're giving them all of this relief and you're unfreezing all of the all of their funds. I don't like that. I understand why you would do it for the oil. I understand why you would do that to open up this because remember they're at capacity right there at the point now where if they can't get the oil out of their system, then it's going to break their system. So I understand wanting to preserve that infrastructure for whatever comes next, if the IRGC were to be deposed. So I can understand that angle of it. But the unfreezing of all of the assets, the unfreezing of the frozen money immediately after they haven't done anything, and Hesbalah is still shelling Israel within the last hour. Yeah. Open source Intel says two things can be true at the same time. Number one, Trump degraded Iran's military like no president before him, he held oil prices during the blockade, and he did it smartly, and he deserves full credit for that. Number Two. At the negotiating table, President Trump has capitulated to Iran's demands. Most of the targets the US and Israel struck during the Iran War were military targets. So the MoU's three hundred billion dollar reconstruction clauses to reconstruct. What exactly. The military targets. All right, let me go back over to the text line. Jeff with a g says, I am glad to see that the MoU has already caused gas prices to start falling. And let's not forget, even at the height of it, we got nowhere near Biden's all time ludicrous high of five bucks a gallon. And the only point in the Biden era when gas was under three dollars a gallon was in the first couple of weeks after he took over from Trump. Steve says, Iran is stating that the tunnels where the uranium is are caved in and too hard to retrieve. Yes, I I mentioned this yesterday. I think it was yesterday that there were reports that Iran was detonating blosives in the tunnels that lead to the uranium stockpiles, and then they would say that, oh, they're irretrievable. We can't get them. Brenda says, I think it's time to go blow their butts up. What do you think. Look, I think that this administration, much like virtually all administrations in the past, is worried about the election. And by the way, people in Israel know this too. People around the world know this as well. That America is American foreign policy decisions are often guided by their domestic electoral implications. So this is why America does not have the stomach for a long drawn out war. Right. Trump made this part of his campaign, the Endless Wars. The rest of the world knows this, Iran knows it. And you know, people are complaining about four dollars a gallon gas, and that's going to put domestic pressure on the administration. On Republicans. They're getting nervous, and so this allows them to, like I said, put the issue off to the side to calm the markets. That's why I see it as a stall. Now. I don't know what comes of the negotiations. I don't like the fact that we're freeing up the frozen assets. I don't like that. That's one point out of the fourteen, and I don't like it. But you know, nobody asked me. Let's see a bunch of different people with analysis here. This is Richard Goldberg, Senior advisor for the Foundation for the Defensive Democracies. He says, looking ahead, the MoU appears to require Congress to vote to repeal US sanctions on Iran, just as Obama, as JCPOA did. How likely do you think that is? Though not very On the contrary, it's likely or Congress extends the Iran Sanctions Act this year? Is the plan to submit a treaty to the Senate. The relief that Iran seeks appears dependent on a d listing of the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization. Is the IRGC still a terrorist organization? Seems like an obvious question for any public official. Biden was asked to do this to get the nuclear deal in twenty twenty two, and he said, no. How quickly will the US and the Gulf partners move to de risk the global supply chain from Hormuz? This has been happening already. New UAE pipeline next year. Will the Saudis follow looks like it? What about other goods? This will accelerate naturally since IRGC could threaten the Strait at any time. How much relief will Iran get over the next few months until the midterms? Broad waivers without escrow will be a lot more than a lot more than narrow waivers with escrow. Broad use of inaccessible accounts for any import or debt could go from tens of millions up to billions. He says, don't make assumptions. Yeah, I mean, it's it's hard to know. Amat Siegall, writing in his newsletter called It's Noon in Israel, he calls this He says, this deal is worse than we thought, goes over all of the reasons why this. Is not good for Israel. He says. The silver lining thin as it is, though, is that the US military is not withdrawing until the conclusion of a final deal. And Trump said, you know, if I don't like it, if they don't behave we'll go right back to dropping bombs now. Fox News correspondent Peter Doosey read to Trump a famous line of his own that Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation. Trump asked Peter Doocy, who said that Deucy said you did, and he replied, oh, I figured as much, and then he said, yeah, but this time Iran lost militarily, but that's kind of the point that you made, that they always lose militarily, but they never lost a negotiation. All right, that'll do it for this episode. Thank you so much for listening. I could not do the show without your support and the support of the businesses that advertise on the podcast, so if you'd like, please support them too and tell them you heard it here. You can also become a patron at my Patreon page or go to dpetecallanershow dot com. Again, thank you so much for listening, and don't break anything while I'm gone.