Iran War Update: A pause and a possible agreement... or not | Hour 3

What's going on? Thank you so much for listening to this podcast. It is heard live every day from noon to three on WBT Radio in Charlotte. And if you want exclusive content like invitations to events, the weekly live stream, I Daily Show prep with all the links, become a patron, go to dpetecleanershow dot com. Make sure you hit the subscribe button. Get every episode for free right to your smartphone or tablet. And again, thank you so much for your support. All right, so we have a framework of the outline of an agreement on a ceasefire or a cessation of the war in Iran, or we don't. We are escorting boats through the Strait of horor moves. But now that's been paused. It's very this is all very confusing. Do you have a ceasfire? Right? Although Iran has been firing at the UAE. Also today, a US Navy FA eighteen super Hornet fired on an Iranian flagged vessel attempting to breach the blockade. According to scent kom trey yinst from Fox News just reporting about twenty minutes ago, the tanker is quote no longer transiting to Iran after the rudder was hit by twenty millimeters rounds fired from the jets gatling gun. So took out the rudder. And so now you are literally rudderless in the Persian Gulf. Donald Trump put out a post on truth social based on the request of Pakistan. Sorry, Pakistan and other countries. So a request from Pakistan and other countries. Based on that request, the tremendous military success that we have had during the campaign against the country of Iran, and additionally the fact that great progress has been made toward a complete and final agreement with representatives of Iran, we have mutually agreed that while the blockade will remain in full force and effect Project Freedom parentheses, the movement of ships through the Straight of Wormus will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the agreement can be finalized and signed. A Pakistani source quoted by Reuters said, quote, the United States and Iran are very close to an agreement to end the war. Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismael Bagahi told Iranian media quote, the American proposal and framework are still under review by Iran. Once our positions are finalized, they will be communicated to the Pakistani side. Donald Trump later today, Yeah, well earlier today, but after he posted that first truth social then today he posts it's another one, and he says, assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, Okay, So again, like, I don't know if any of this is true. I have no idea. Everybody like, if you don't believe Donald Trump, then you don't believe anything he's seeing, and you believe he's just lying about everything for personal gain, I guess, or he doesn't know what he's doing, or he's got dementia or whatever. Okay, So I'm not going to try to convince you to change your mind on that, or there are actual negotiations going on and there has been some agreement on certain items and that they're just waiting to hear from Iran. Because he says, assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is perhaps a big assumption, the already legendary, very epic fury will be at an end, and the highly effective blockade will allow the horror moves straight to be open to all, including Iran. If they don't agree, the bombing starts, and it will be sadly at a much higher level and intensity than it was before. Thank you for your attention to this matter. According to the Tasnim agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, they quote an intelligent source that says, quote, the American proposal contains unacceptable clauses. All right, So what does what does all this mean? Well, as we went over yesterday, there is a rift between the IRGC and the civilian government in Iran. If you are of the mindset that Trump lies about all of this stuff, these are all lies, and you know believe any of it, then find whatever. I'm not talking to you, but I have to believe. I feel like it is only the rational thing to believe that we are talking to somebody over there. Right, If Pakistan is putting out messages that the US and Iran are very close to an agreement, I don't think Pakistan is lying about that. Why would they lie about that. To make themselves look I don't know, more powerful, Like look at US brokering a piece or something like they're doing it for their own international. Bona fides or something. It seems like you've got civilian leadership that is very, very worried about the complete destruction of the economy, the collapse of the government, the collapse of the society basically, and they're making a calculation that we cannot have the bombing resume and we cannot beat the US militarily, whether it is through the blocking of the straight of word, it's not even blocking. The Iranians are not blocking the straight of horor moves. They're threatening vessels, and because the insurance carriers dropped all coverage in light of the threats, none of the ships want to go through. And as I mentioned yesterday, there's like twenty two thousand plus mariners who are stuck on those boats and so they can't get out. So Iran is holding them hostage, which is very much the Iranian playbook from. The very beginning. One of the first things they did was take a bunch of our hostages, right, And as Marco Rubio said in his speech yesterday and his Q and A yesterday, like this is unacceptable. Right, either the world agrees that the international waterways are free for all, or it does not. And if the international community, if international law that we heard all these people talk about for the first few weeks of the campaign, if they really believe in international law, then this is sort of this is like a cornerstone in that framework that all nations have the right of free passage in international waters, nobody owns them, and if somebody comes along and starts taking out ships, then all the world, all countries have a stake in ensuring that that stops. That's what's being tested right now. So I got to believe that this is a sign that the IRGC and the civilian leadership. Are at odds. And there's more proof of this as well, because let's see here, excuse me, hang on all right, Amid Siegall, I've quoted him a lot. He writes a newsletter he's with Channel twelve news in Israel. He says, last night a very senior is rarely intelligence source. So this is from the Israelis and not for nothing, but like they seem to have a really good read on what's going on inside of Iran. Just uh. And again, like every time the Iranian leadership does anything like over the internet, because they shut down the internet for all the whole country except for themselves, Like that's all traceable. So like I gotta believe that they understand if the bombing starts up again, they're like top of the ticket, you know, they're top of the target list. So Israeli intelligence estimated that if the status quo blockade remains, the Islamic Republic quote will not survive twenty twenty six. Predicting the complete collapse of a half century old theocracy within the next eight months sounds like a bold gamble until you look at the math. I went over some of this yesterday, But the Iranian re all their currency is in freefall, and it was already in freefall. That's what triggered the mass protests, and it's only getting worse. To prevent mass starvation, the government is propping up a heavily subsidized exchange rate just to import basic food supplies. The wider economy fares no better. Even before the blockade, non oil trade had plummeted by fifty percent. The much touted economic pivot to China has failed entirely. Trade is down eighty percent, and regional hubs for evading sanctions like the UAE, have slammed their doors shut. Two million Iranians have lost their jobs already, and that number is expected to skyrocket. But the most devastating blow has landed on the regime's lifeblood, which is the oil you know. Stories are powerful. They help us make sense of things, to understand experiences. Stories connect us to the people of our past while transcending generations. They help us process the meaning of life, and our stories are told through images and videos. Preserve your stories with Creative Video. Started in nineteen ninety seven in Minhill, North Carolina. It was the first company to provide this valuable service, converting images, photos and videos into high quality produced slide shows, videos and albums. The trusted, talented and dedicated team at Creative Video will go over all of the details with you to create a perfect project. Satisfaction guaranteed. Drop them off in person or mail them. They'll be ready in a week or two. Memorial videos for your loved ones, videos for rehearsal, dinners, weddings, graduations, Christmas, family vacations, birthdays, or just your family stories all told through images. That's what your photos and videos are. They are your life told through the eyes of everyone around you and all who came before you, and they will tell others to come. Who you are, visit creative video dot com. All right, So this a Meet Seagall write up. This is from his newsletter. It's noon in Israel. And he says right now, regarding Iran's oil supply, Iran has one hundred and eighty four million barrels of oil sitting uselessly on the water. About sixty million of those barrels are physically trapped inside the blockade zone. That's in the Persian Gulf, that's in the Gulf of Oman or Oman, if you will. The other one hundred and twenty four million are anchored near China, but buyers are too terrified of secondary US sanctions touching them, so they don't want to touch the oil. Between stalled oil and frozen petrochemical exports, the blockade is draining the regime of an estimated four hundred to five hundred million dollars every single day. And I'm not even going to do the re all conversion on that because the re ALL is treating it like one point eight million reels per dollar. Worse for Iran, the blockade is rapidly evolving into an existential crisis for the energy sector. Once Iran's on shore and floating storage tanks reach one hundred percent capacity, which was the expectation, is anywhere between fifteen to sixty days and Iran I mentioned Yesterday's begun slowing production, so they don't fill their supply their storage space as rapidly, so they're trying to buy more time, buy more time. Say they both have different clocks here. Iran's clock is on keeping the oil production from shutting down, and Trump's clock is the midterms. Right, the state will be forced if they hit one hundred percent capacity, then they're going to be forced to physically shut active oil wells. For mature oil fields, if you cap the well, that's basically a death sentence because the underground pressure rec required to extract the oil dissipates. And if that happens, Iran could permanently lose three hundred to half a million, three hundred thousand to five hundred thousand barrels per day of production capacity, and that means annual revenue of anywhere from nine to fifteen billion dollars is wiped out. That's if it were like, if they were to survive without any further destruction. Right, there's also the problem of not paying troops. And they have gone now a couple months without any pay and so, and they have guns, and so you know at some point that turns into desperation. Some regular army units and police forces have gone unpaid for months. The regime will inevit inevitably resort to massacres to keep its grip on power, but there comes a point where desperation will simply override fear. The ultimate result remains the same, the death of the Islamic Republic. However, this entire strategy relies on the colossal if, which is if the blockade continues, and that is built on a foundation of the most unpredictable ground in global politics, one Donald J. Trump. And that's what has Israelis worried, which is weird because I thought they were pulling all of the strings. I thought I thought Trump was a mere puppet. This is what the Israelis are worried about, that Trump is going to claim victory and sail away Project Freedom. This was the blockade that was unveiled yesterday. You had heg Seth and Caine out there and they were talking about Project Freedom. They Marco Rubio talking about it. So they like they the White House invested quite a bit of time and pr into promoting Project Freedom right and making this case, answering questions and the like. But now it's like, okay, pause, on the Operation Freedom. Pause pause, while we're waiting on the Iranians to come back with their you know, counterproposals or whether they're going to actually do what we agree to do and whatever. I meet. Siegel says, Project Freedom fundamentally alters the regional calculus. By reopening the street to commercial traffic. It could transform what was once a two way street of passive economic pressure right where the rest of the world is feeling this pressure but Iran is feeling it. Also, Project Freedom means it's a one way pressure ratchet right, one way street directed squarely at Iran, whereas everybody can move through xp Iran, anybody going to Iran, and in the shadow fleet right these ships that are basically smugglers. Right. The prospect of abandoning this initiative and worse, reaching a negotiated settlement that hands Tehran economic relief is exactly what keeps Israeli security officials awake at night. Fortunately for their sleep schedules. The enemy gets a vote and the Iranian regime is opting, not for diplomacy. Iranian attacks on the UAE in retribution for Project Freedom continued yesterday entirely bypassing the desperate objections of the civilian leadership, it appears the internal takeover is nearly complete. The IRGC commander Ahmad Vahiti has formed a military council that now monopolizes all contact with the Supreme Leader, but Chaba Kameeni, effectively blocking civilian leader President Mussoud Possession Skins attempts to call an emergency meeting to halt the strikes. Interesting, It's like part of me is like this is good, right, because if these civilians are the ones that are like, let's stop it, let's get an agreement and all of that, and then they can survive. But the IRGC is sidelining this civilian leadership and they're like fight to the death. Okay again, Like I don't think the first round went so very well for you guys, but I like if that's if that's how they're going to play this, then you're basically dealing with the same situation like in Lebanon, where you've got a government that is not in control of a militia force, as the IRGC would then kind of become right unless they just take over all of the government. Yeah. By ordering the attack, Bahiti's faction revealed it's calculus which is what Pete glad you asked. I will tell you in a moment, all right. So I was reading this piece from Amy Siegaal where portions of it. It's pretty lengthy with the ordering of the attack on UAE, the IRGC faction led by this guy Vahiti. It revealed their calculus. Here's the calculus. A renewed military conflict with Washington and Jerusalem is an acceptable cost of doing business. That's what that's their calculus, right. Continuing to get shelled, to have their their infrastructure blown up, their leadership wiped out, like this is all acceptable. Men willing to trigger a regional war just to hold onto a bargaining chip, which is the strait of hormones, are not the kind of men who see a diplomatic settlement through to the end. These are the people that you're dealing with, and they've always been this way. Jennifer texts in that the IRGC will never give up to do so, will be admitting that a law is not with them. You can't negotiate with crazy people. John Spencer is the executive director of the Urban Warfare Institute and lays out the case that if Iran is allowed to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz, which is a twenty one mile wide waterway that handles about twenty percent of global oil. Their extortion is not going to stop there, not just their extortion, global extortion, he says. The logic of coercion will immediately spread to the Strait of Malacca, the Bob al Mandeb, and the Suez Canal. This is the ultimate syllabus point. A strait is the maritime equivalent of a narrow city street. Whoever controls the narrow corridors controls the entire system. If the principle of freedom of navigation falls in Hormuz, the entire global supply chain collapses. Rogue actors will realize that they don't need massive bluewater navies to defeat superpowers. They just need cheap drones and anti ship missiles parked next to a geographical bottleneck, and then they can hold the world economy hostage. That is what's going on. He goes on to say on Twitter, he posted this about an hour ago. John Spencer did that the issue is not what the status of the Strait of Hormuz was before the current operations. The issue is this regime's demonstrated willingness to use the Strait as economic terrorism through attacks on international shipping and attempts to control global commerce by force. That behavior is precisely why preventing you Ron from obtaining nuclear weapons matters. A regime willing to weaponize one of the world's most critical maritime choke points cannot be allowed to do so under a nuclear umbrella. Right again, the ballistic missile program, the rockets, the drones, all of that, And this was said on day one by the administration. They said that was being used as a shield. They were building up the stockpiles so as to make the cost of any action against them so high that nobody would challenge them, and so they would then be protected to make the last run at the nuclear bomb. And once you get that, now that acts as your your umbrella for everything that you do. And if you think that they would not have applied this kind of strategy with a nuclear bomb, I mean I think I think you're just you know, kind of deceiving yourself on that. Of course they would. This is not just for defensive purposes. They have been literally funding armies all around the Middle East. They're proxy armies. Hesbala hamas the hoodies. Right, they've been funding these organizations, training them, supplying them. Right, because it is a revolutionary philosophy. It's Islamo Marxism, and you export that. That's the point of the revolution. It's to go into the house of war, which is every piece of territory that is not under the house of Islam. Right, you go into the house of war to do war. Right, you export the revolution. That's what they've been up to for fifty years. So to think that they wouldn't continue that when they've got even greater firepower, I think it's a I think it's deception. He goes on to say freedom of navigation and nuclear non proliferation are linked. Preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power is what secures those sea lanes long term, not the other way around. Preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power is what secures the sea lanes. He then goes on to talk about the Obama Deal, the JCPOA. It was fatally flawed. It handed Iran a pathway to nuclear weapons capability with limited temporary and reversible constraints. They had sunset clauses on key restrictions, no limits on ballistic missiles, or terror funding. It was never a durable solution. It was a pause button that enriched the regime. Also, the nuclear archive that Massad seized from Tehran in twenty eighteen proved that Iran had been lying for years. It documented the regime's secret nuclear weapons program, the clear violations of the non Proliferation Treaty which Iran had signed, meanwhile claiming all the while that their program was peaceful. And of course the smoking gun on that lie was the sixty percent enriched uranium. No reason whatsoever to enrich up to sixty percent for civilian purposes. Civilian purposes only need like three and a half. The only reason you go to sixty is for weapons. And the first offer that the Trump administration made to Iran before the bomb started dropping was if you want nuclear material for civilian purposes, we will give it to you, and Iran said no. The only reason you would say no to free nuclear material for your reactors is if you actually want the nukes for weapons. A report twenty minutes ago from inside Israel Intel quote Iran and the United States are reportedly nearing an agreement. Iran announces that the deal will include Lebanon and then a couple hours later, Israel bombs be route to take out the top Hesbela commanders who have been orchestrating the planned ground invasion into northern Israel. So Hesbela is trying to launch a ground invasion, and people are leaving the southern suburbs of Beirut Lebanon in anticipation of an upcoming escalation of the situation with Israel. There is also to do. An oil ministry official in Iran told The New York Times that Iran will exhaust all oil storage capacity within forty to forty five days and will begin shutting down its wells. Some closures will be permanent, they said. Also a couple of European countries France, I believe, and well I know France they're moving a carrier out of the Red Sea over towards the Straight of Horror moves because they announced a lot. I think it was the UK. I saw this headline and I forgot to grab it that. I think it's the UK that or maybe Germany that they are looking to to support the safe passage of ships through the Straight of Horror moves. So there they've expressed an interest in doing that, and now I just see this popped up from open source intel. Trump tells Fox News Iran has one week to sign a deal. Okay, so we are now on another So one week, that's next Thursday. Okay, so a week from today. Iran's got ron's on the clock. Also sayid Goseminaja I think is how he pronounces that financial economist, former engineer, director of Iran Prosperity Project, and senior fellow at the National Union for Democracy in Iran. He says that Gallibath, who is the UH I think, the speaker of the parliament, one of that guy's top advisors, says that targeting the UAE was done to increase the gas prices in America. It seems that Gallibath's strategy is to influence the mid term elections and bring down Donald Trump through impeachment. That's their strategy. So keep that in mind when people are you know, people around you about four dollars a gallon gas and I'm going to vote for Democrats or I'm gonna sit home. That is exactly what Iran would like for you to do because it helps them maintain their regime. Like this is what they're telling you. We want Trump impeached. By Democrats, and so we are trying to bomb oil refineries around us. So this way gas prices rise and you get so mad at Trump that you'll vote for Democrats or you'll stay home and Democrats will impeach him. I'm just gonna point out here, like if if you're on the side of the Iranian kleptocracy, this radical regime that's been sponsoring terrorism for half a century, killing Americans, kidnapping Americans, Like if you're if you're helping them against us, like you may want to rethink your position. Meanwhile, Reza Pahlavi, this is the the Shaw's Sun right, the. Prince Polavi right. He put out a statement directed to the Arab neighbors saying that our region is at a fork in the road. One path leaves the Islamic republican power and leads to further crimes against our people and yours. The other path helps Iranians reclaim Iran from this illegitimate regime and returns peace and stability to the region. That is a it's a. Dichotomy there, that's an either or choice. I'm not really sure. I guess it could go any different ways here. People like I don't think I would like to hope that it would improve the situation. Now, remember the guy Joe Kent, the leaker from the was it the Center for counter Terrorism whatever it was, and then he quit and he says he quit because you know, the Jews basically, and I wanted to investigate the murder of Charlie Kirk and the FBI told me no, and all of this. And then he's been saying that, you know, we've been drawn into this war by Israel. We're fighting Israel's war and all this, and he says, according to Israel, Iran has been on the brink of getting nuclear weapons for thirty years and they still don't have them. Right, So this is an argument that I hear all the time from what Trump calls the Pannikins, that you know, Benjamin Netanyahu has been saying this for thirty years, ha ha ha. He's just been trying to find, you know, some fool that he could doupe into going to war with Iran. Right. However, the former Massad chief explained it pretty simply years ago. He said, a car has twenty five thousand parts, and if even one hundred. Of them are missing, then it doesn't move. A nuclear program has far more moving pieces, and Massad's job is to make sure Iran never has all of them at once. That's why they haven't gotten the It's not because they haven't been trying. It's because the Masade keeps mucking it up on them. They keep breaking things. They've been doing it for decades. That's the reason they don't have the nuke. All right, that'll do it for this episode. Thank you so much for listening. I could not do the show without your support and the support of the businesses that advertise on the podcast, so if you'd like, please support them too and tell them you heard it here. You can also become a patron at my Patreon page or go to thepetecleanershow dot com. Again, thank you so much for listening, and don't break anything while I'm gone.