This episode is presented by Create A Video – Recent polling is showing a breaking trend towards Donald Trump in key swing states with less than a month to go before the election.
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[00:00:04] [SPEAKER_00]: What's going on? Thank you so much for listening to this podcast. It is heard live every day from noon to 3 on WBT Radio in Charlotte. And if you want exclusive content, like invitations to events, the weekly live stream, my daily show prep with all the links, become a patron, go to thepetekalinershow.com. Make sure you hit the subscribe button, get every episode for free, right to your smartphone or tablet. And again, thank you so much for your support.
[00:00:28] [SPEAKER_00]: All right, you know me. I am not just a giver. And I am not just all about solutions. But I also, I don't bring to you individual polling numbers. Like a new poll comes out. I'm not the kind of guy that's going to highlight a poll for you and say, oh my girl, look at this, you know.
[00:00:49] [SPEAKER_00]: Well, I guess I couldn't say look at this. I could say look at this. But you couldn't actually look at it. You could just listen to it. So anyway, I don't do that. Why? Because I don't trust polls.
[00:01:01] [SPEAKER_00]: Ever since 2016, I have ceased putting any real faith in the polling because it was so wrong in 2016. And honestly, the juice isn't worth the squeeze for me.
[00:01:16] [SPEAKER_00]: Because in order to have any kind of confidence in the poll results to bring to you, I have to then go into the cross tabs. I have to read the questions. I have to look at the demographics.
[00:01:28] [SPEAKER_00]: I got to look at all of the extrapolation calculations. And frankly, I don't care enough about doing that every single time a new poll is released because it's not worth it.
[00:01:39] [SPEAKER_00]: Because the next day another poll comes out and then I'd have to do it all over again. So I don't do that. I am more interested in the trends.
[00:01:47] [SPEAKER_00]: In the trends. So you can follow like RealClearPolitics has a trend feature where it puts in all of the polls and then it kind of gives you a basic trend line.
[00:02:00] [SPEAKER_00]: Based on all the polls from before.
[00:02:05] [SPEAKER_00]: And so you can see, is there movement? Is it going up? Is it going down? Right?
[00:02:11] [SPEAKER_00]: That's the, that's the, you know, you zoom out and get a better idea of where things are heading.
[00:02:17] [SPEAKER_00]: Okay. But there is also sort of embedded in that, in the results that you see in the polling, there are other things that are part of the trends that are not immediately obvious.
[00:02:31] [SPEAKER_00]: Just by looking at a single poll result or by even looking at all of just the numbers to say, oh, Donald Trump is, you know, polling one point down, two points down nationally, whatever, because it doesn't really matter.
[00:02:43] [SPEAKER_00]: Because we don't elect presidents based on the national vote.
[00:02:48] [SPEAKER_00]: We have 50 state votes on the same day.
[00:02:52] [SPEAKER_00]: We have 50 elections on the same day.
[00:02:55] [SPEAKER_00]: So the trend is to look at where the, where certain states are and where they are trending, where they have been, where they are trending.
[00:03:05] [SPEAKER_00]: And then how important are those states in amassing electoral college votes?
[00:03:10] [SPEAKER_00]: Okay. So with that all said, I give you the latest Quinnipiac poll.
[00:03:15] [SPEAKER_00]: No, I'm just kidding.
[00:03:16] [SPEAKER_00]: But the, well, I mean, I mean, yeah, kind of, sort of.
[00:03:20] [SPEAKER_00]: So Quinnipiac came out with its poll and you've probably heard the name over the years.
[00:03:25] [SPEAKER_00]: People put stock and value into this polling outfit.
[00:03:31] [SPEAKER_00]: As I understand it, they may be a little teensy weensy bit left of center,
[00:03:35] [SPEAKER_00]: but the new Quinnipiac, but that actually doesn't help in this case.
[00:03:40] [SPEAKER_00]: It actually makes it worse because always keep in mind that the best pollsters,
[00:03:48] [SPEAKER_00]: the ones that, that like really, really care about getting it right versus getting a headline or getting publicity or winning a news cycle,
[00:03:58] [SPEAKER_00]: the best pollsters you've probably never even heard of because they work for campaigns.
[00:04:05] [SPEAKER_00]: They work for parties and they are paid to be right.
[00:04:11] [SPEAKER_00]: And they are paid to help candidates and parties create strategies.
[00:04:18] [SPEAKER_00]: And you don't do that for a long time.
[00:04:21] [SPEAKER_00]: If your numbers are wrong, if you keep producing bad polling,
[00:04:26] [SPEAKER_00]: candidates will not hire you because if they need to make a change in their strategy,
[00:04:31] [SPEAKER_00]: like Kamala Harris's, then they're not going to trust that you're giving them accurate data to adapt to whatever they need to adapt to,
[00:04:40] [SPEAKER_00]: like Kamala Harris's.
[00:04:41] [SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
[00:04:41] [SPEAKER_00]: So the new Quinnipiac University polling came out
[00:04:46] [SPEAKER_00]: and it shows that Donald Trump is gaining in the Rust Belt states central to Kamala Harris's campaign,
[00:04:56] [SPEAKER_00]: including taking a slight lead in Michigan where the governor just had a really weird photo.
[00:05:03] [SPEAKER_00]: Have you seen this photo that just came out where she's like,
[00:05:06] [SPEAKER_00]: like she's giving,
[00:05:07] [SPEAKER_00]: it's almost like the,
[00:05:09] [SPEAKER_00]: like communion at a Catholic mass.
[00:05:11] [SPEAKER_00]: And there's like a woman and she's like receiving communion,
[00:05:14] [SPEAKER_00]: but it's a potato chip.
[00:05:15] [SPEAKER_00]: It's very weird.
[00:05:16] [SPEAKER_00]: It's a very,
[00:05:17] [SPEAKER_00]: or maybe it's a Dorito.
[00:05:18] [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
[00:05:19] [SPEAKER_00]: It,
[00:05:19] [SPEAKER_00]: it could be a chip that's got like a sprayed on Dorito color or something,
[00:05:23] [SPEAKER_00]: but,
[00:05:24] [SPEAKER_00]: uh,
[00:05:24] [SPEAKER_00]: is a very odd photo.
[00:05:25] [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not really sure.
[00:05:26] [SPEAKER_00]: And these are the people that call everybody weird.
[00:05:28] [SPEAKER_00]: That's weird.
[00:05:29] [SPEAKER_00]: Anyway,
[00:05:29] [SPEAKER_00]: the polls conducted October 3rd through the 7th,
[00:05:33] [SPEAKER_00]: released on Wednesday.
[00:05:35] [SPEAKER_00]: So yesterday found that in a hypothetical two way matchup.
[00:05:40] [SPEAKER_00]: So there's a limitation right there.
[00:05:42] [SPEAKER_00]: It's not a two way matchup.
[00:05:44] [SPEAKER_00]: There are other candidates that are on the ballot,
[00:05:47] [SPEAKER_00]: right?
[00:05:47] [SPEAKER_00]: You got Jill Stein,
[00:05:49] [SPEAKER_00]: who has,
[00:05:50] [SPEAKER_00]: I think pretty well locked down the pro Hamas vote,
[00:05:53] [SPEAKER_00]: the anti-Semite vote.
[00:05:55] [SPEAKER_00]: I think she's got that lockdown,
[00:05:57] [SPEAKER_00]: um,
[00:05:57] [SPEAKER_00]: which is weird because I think she's Jewish,
[00:06:00] [SPEAKER_00]: but whatever.
[00:06:00] [SPEAKER_00]: Uh,
[00:06:01] [SPEAKER_00]: you got Robert F.
[00:06:02] [SPEAKER_00]: Kennedy Jr.
[00:06:02] [SPEAKER_00]: He's on some of the ballots like Michigan.
[00:06:04] [SPEAKER_00]: They're refusing to take him off the ballot.
[00:06:06] [SPEAKER_00]: Um,
[00:06:08] [SPEAKER_00]: and,
[00:06:09] uh,
[00:06:09] [SPEAKER_00]: the libertarian,
[00:06:10] [SPEAKER_00]: uh,
[00:06:11] [SPEAKER_00]: candidate for president that I,
[00:06:13] [SPEAKER_00]: uh,
[00:06:13] [SPEAKER_00]: I,
[00:06:13] [SPEAKER_00]: I,
[00:06:13] [SPEAKER_00]: I,
[00:06:14] [SPEAKER_00]: I don't,
[00:06:14] [SPEAKER_00]: I don't remember who that is.
[00:06:16] [SPEAKER_00]: I'm sorry.
[00:06:18] I,
[00:06:18] [SPEAKER_00]: I forgot.
[00:06:19] [SPEAKER_00]: I forgot the guy's name and I was a libertarian.
[00:06:22] [SPEAKER_00]: I,
[00:06:22] [SPEAKER_00]: I was like registered libertarian.
[00:06:24] [SPEAKER_00]: Now I consider myself to be a lowercase,
[00:06:26] [SPEAKER_00]: a libertarian or conservatarian.
[00:06:27] [SPEAKER_00]: I don't even know what I fit into anymore.
[00:06:29] [SPEAKER_00]: A classical liberal.
[00:06:30] [SPEAKER_00]: I don't even know.
[00:06:33] [SPEAKER_00]: Regardless,
[00:06:34] [SPEAKER_00]: you know,
[00:06:35] [SPEAKER_00]: head to head matchup.
[00:06:38] [SPEAKER_00]: Harris in,
[00:06:39] [SPEAKER_00]: uh,
[00:06:39] [SPEAKER_00]: in,
[00:06:40] [SPEAKER_00]: this is,
[00:06:41] [SPEAKER_00]: uh,
[00:06:41] [SPEAKER_00]: Harris leads Trump by three points in Pennsylvania,
[00:06:45] [SPEAKER_00]: 49 to 46%.
[00:06:47] [SPEAKER_00]: Harris is leading in Pennsylvania.
[00:06:51] [SPEAKER_00]: Well,
[00:06:51] [SPEAKER_00]: that's not good news for Trump.
[00:06:53] [SPEAKER_00]: Is it?
[00:06:54] [SPEAKER_00]: Well,
[00:06:55] [SPEAKER_00]: maybe.
[00:06:57] [SPEAKER_00]: Trends.
[00:06:58] [SPEAKER_00]: Remember trends.
[00:06:59] [SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
[00:07:00] [SPEAKER_00]: I'll circle back to that.
[00:07:02] [SPEAKER_00]: I'll pass Saki back to that in a second.
[00:07:04] [SPEAKER_00]: Trump is up three points in Michigan,
[00:07:07] [SPEAKER_00]: 50 to 47%.
[00:07:10] [SPEAKER_00]: In Wisconsin,
[00:07:12] [SPEAKER_00]: the candidates are neck and neck,
[00:07:14] [SPEAKER_00]: but Trump is at 48.
[00:07:15] [SPEAKER_00]: Harris at 46.
[00:07:18] [SPEAKER_00]: And all three of these polls are within the margin of error,
[00:07:22] [SPEAKER_00]: which means what?
[00:07:24] [SPEAKER_00]: They're all toss ups.
[00:07:26] [SPEAKER_00]: They're all toss ups.
[00:07:27] [SPEAKER_00]: They could go either way because a margin of error means plus or minus three and a half percent.
[00:07:32] [SPEAKER_00]: And if you're within three and a half percent,
[00:07:34] [SPEAKER_00]: then that's,
[00:07:36] [SPEAKER_00]: they could be wrong.
[00:07:37] [SPEAKER_00]: The polls could be wrong.
[00:07:38] [SPEAKER_00]: The results represent,
[00:07:40] [SPEAKER_00]: according to Politico in a piece by Kiera Frazier,
[00:07:46] [SPEAKER_00]: the results represent troubling signs for Democrats.
[00:07:50] [SPEAKER_00]: Harris's lead appears to be shrinking in the key battleground states as we approach election day,
[00:07:58] [SPEAKER_00]: which is less than a month away.
[00:07:59] [SPEAKER_00]: In the Quinnipiac poll,
[00:08:02] [SPEAKER_00]: which was conducted in mid-September,
[00:08:04] [SPEAKER_00]: so before she's been going around doing these different interviews and saying progressively stupider things,
[00:08:10] [SPEAKER_00]: you know,
[00:08:11] [SPEAKER_00]: Harris held a lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan with the race essentially tied in Wisconsin.
[00:08:19] [SPEAKER_00]: So that's what the latest is.
[00:08:22] [SPEAKER_00]: What's the problem?
[00:08:24] [SPEAKER_00]: If you go back and you look at the polling from 2020 and 2016 in these same states,
[00:08:34] [SPEAKER_00]: Trump was losing bigly.
[00:08:40] [SPEAKER_00]: So in other words,
[00:08:42] [SPEAKER_00]: Harris is leading in the polls by a smaller margin than Biden was or Clinton was.
[00:08:53] [SPEAKER_00]: And in some of these poll results,
[00:08:55] [SPEAKER_00]: Trump is actually leading.
[00:08:57] [SPEAKER_00]: So what does that mean?
[00:09:00] [SPEAKER_00]: Two things.
[00:09:01] [SPEAKER_00]: Number one,
[00:09:02] [SPEAKER_00]: there is the shy Trump voter,
[00:09:04] [SPEAKER_00]: they call them the shy voter,
[00:09:06] [SPEAKER_00]: which is somebody that doesn't want to tell the pollster on the phone or something.
[00:09:09] [SPEAKER_00]: They don't want to say who they're voting for,
[00:09:11] [SPEAKER_00]: for whatever reason.
[00:09:12] [SPEAKER_00]: They're,
[00:09:12] [SPEAKER_00]: you know,
[00:09:13] [SPEAKER_00]: embarrassed.
[00:09:14] [SPEAKER_00]: They don't want the hassle.
[00:09:15] [SPEAKER_00]: They don't want to argue,
[00:09:16] [SPEAKER_00]: or they're just trying to mess up the poll numbers,
[00:09:18] [SPEAKER_00]: which there are a lot of people that,
[00:09:20] [SPEAKER_00]: that do that.
[00:09:21] [SPEAKER_00]: They lie to pollsters in order to mess with the numbers.
[00:09:24] [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know why they do that,
[00:09:25] [SPEAKER_00]: but they do that.
[00:09:26] [SPEAKER_00]: Um,
[00:09:27] [SPEAKER_00]: so that's,
[00:09:28] [SPEAKER_00]: that's one reason,
[00:09:30] [SPEAKER_00]: the shy voter.
[00:09:31] [SPEAKER_00]: The other is that the polling in the way they identify people to call up and poll,
[00:09:41] [SPEAKER_00]: has not been able to figure out how to find the Trump voters.
[00:09:48] [SPEAKER_00]: Because Trump always overperforms his polling.
[00:09:54] [SPEAKER_00]: This is why I suspect Kamala Harris has shifted her strategy.
[00:10:01] [SPEAKER_00]: Now,
[00:10:01] [SPEAKER_00]: all of a sudden she's going on to podcasts to talk about sex.
[00:10:07] [SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
[00:10:07] [SPEAKER_00]: Well,
[00:10:07] [SPEAKER_00]: she didn't really talk about sex,
[00:10:08] [SPEAKER_00]: but she went on a sex talking podcast.
[00:10:10] Okay.
[00:10:11] [SPEAKER_00]: And they talked about abortion.
[00:10:12] [SPEAKER_00]: So,
[00:10:12] [SPEAKER_00]: all right.
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[00:11:15] [SPEAKER_00]: Um,
[00:11:17] [SPEAKER_00]: so a poll released last week,
[00:11:19] [SPEAKER_00]: according to Politico,
[00:11:21] [SPEAKER_00]: a poll released last week,
[00:11:23] [SPEAKER_00]: the Cook Political Report swing state project surveys showed Kamala Harris between one and three points ahead in five battleground states.
[00:11:32] [SPEAKER_00]: And so that's easily within the margin of error.
[00:11:36] [SPEAKER_00]: In North Carolina,
[00:11:37] [SPEAKER_00]: Harris and Trump are tied.
[00:11:40] [SPEAKER_00]: Right?
[00:11:41] [SPEAKER_00]: So again,
[00:11:41] [SPEAKER_00]: keep in mind,
[00:11:42] [SPEAKER_00]: Donald Trump always overperforms versus the polling.
[00:11:48] [SPEAKER_00]: There's a fellow named David Bossy.
[00:11:51] [SPEAKER_00]: He is the president of Citizens United,
[00:11:54] [SPEAKER_00]: and,
[00:11:55] [SPEAKER_00]: uh,
[00:11:55] [SPEAKER_00]: he served as a senior advisor to the Trump Pence 2020 campaign.
[00:12:00] [SPEAKER_00]: In 2016,
[00:12:01] [SPEAKER_00]: he served as deputy campaign manager for Donald Trump for president and deputy executive director for the Trump Pence transition team.
[00:12:08] [SPEAKER_00]: All right.
[00:12:09] [SPEAKER_00]: So,
[00:12:09] [SPEAKER_00]: you know,
[00:12:09] [SPEAKER_00]: his background and his bias.
[00:12:12] [SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
[00:12:13] [SPEAKER_00]: He wrote a piece for the daily caller news foundation.
[00:12:19] [SPEAKER_00]: And he says,
[00:12:20] [SPEAKER_00]: with just 27 days to go until election day,
[00:12:23] [SPEAKER_00]: former president Donald Trump is in a great position to win the requisite 270 electoral votes to become the 47th president.
[00:12:30] [SPEAKER_00]: That being said,
[00:12:30] [SPEAKER_00]: the race is shaping up to be a nail biter,
[00:12:33] [SPEAKER_00]: perhaps the closest election in history.
[00:12:36] [SPEAKER_00]: In July,
[00:12:37] [SPEAKER_00]: after it became clear that Trump was going to wipe the floor with President Joe Biden,
[00:12:42] [SPEAKER_00]: former President Barack Obama and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi orchestrated a desperate un-American coup
[00:12:49] [SPEAKER_00]: to save democracy that installed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democrat nominee without receiving a single vote.
[00:12:56] [SPEAKER_00]: And I would add here that it worked.
[00:12:59] [SPEAKER_00]: The polls tightened,
[00:13:01] [SPEAKER_00]: right?
[00:13:01] [SPEAKER_00]: It worked for a while.
[00:13:03] [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if it's going to be enough to get them across the finish line,
[00:13:07] [SPEAKER_00]: but it did work.
[00:13:09] [SPEAKER_00]: As far as a strategy goes,
[00:13:11] [SPEAKER_00]: they suffered very little blowback for acting in such an un-American,
[00:13:15] [SPEAKER_00]: un-democratic fashion.
[00:13:17] [SPEAKER_00]: They got a lot of love and glowing praise and coverage from the mainstream media.
[00:13:24] [SPEAKER_00]: The switch to Harris seemed to benefit them in the polls by providing an artificial yet short-lived bounce in the polling
[00:13:36] [SPEAKER_00]: and some much-needed excitement.
[00:13:39] [SPEAKER_00]: Have you noticed they don't say joy so much anymore?
[00:13:43] [SPEAKER_00]: Have you noticed that?
[00:13:44] [SPEAKER_00]: They're not really hammering away at the joy,
[00:13:46] [SPEAKER_00]: the joy this,
[00:13:47] [SPEAKER_00]: the joy that,
[00:13:48] [SPEAKER_00]: joyful warrior,
[00:13:50] [SPEAKER_00]: all of that stuff.
[00:13:51] [SPEAKER_00]: Harris was given room by the biased mainstream media to navigate or to try to navigate around Biden's crises
[00:13:58] [SPEAKER_00]: on the economy,
[00:13:59] [SPEAKER_00]: the border,
[00:14:00] [SPEAKER_00]: and the world stage.
[00:14:01] [SPEAKER_00]: But now a steady dose of reality is setting in because the American people are realizing that Biden's disasters are also Harris's disasters.
[00:14:11] [SPEAKER_00]: He goes on to say that in North Carolina,
[00:14:15] [SPEAKER_00]: voters are currently witnessing breathtaking incompetence from the Biden-Harris administration as they grapple with the brutal aftermath of Hurricane Helene.
[00:14:24] [SPEAKER_00]: At the same time,
[00:14:25] [SPEAKER_00]: the GOP is on offense in the state by slashing the Democrats' voter registration advantage by 268,000 compared to just four years ago.
[00:14:36] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah,
[00:14:37] [SPEAKER_00]: I've been kind of highlighting this.
[00:14:39] [SPEAKER_00]: There's a fellow,
[00:14:40] [SPEAKER_00]: Dr. Andy Jackson at the John Locke Foundation,
[00:14:43] [SPEAKER_00]: and he does a running count of voter registration changes,
[00:14:47] [SPEAKER_00]: and it looks like the trend line is that Republicans will soon outnumber Democrats in North Carolina.
[00:14:55] [SPEAKER_00]: The largest voter registration is still unaffiliated,
[00:14:59] [SPEAKER_00]: but right now Democrats are number two and Republicans are number three.
[00:15:03] [SPEAKER_00]: But Democrats have just been hemorrhaging registered voters,
[00:15:06] [SPEAKER_00]: and Republicans keep adding them.
[00:15:09] [SPEAKER_00]: All right,
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[00:15:42] [SPEAKER_00]: pretty much anything NC.
[00:15:43] [SPEAKER_00]: Every item shares a piece of North Carolina's heart,
[00:15:46] [SPEAKER_00]: and you'll discover new businesses in every box.
[00:15:48] [SPEAKER_00]: There are boxes of various sizes and prices,
[00:15:51] [SPEAKER_00]: so it's super easy to find the perfect gift for anyone and any occasion.
[00:15:55] [SPEAKER_00]: The special holiday-themed boxes are available for order now until October 15th.
[00:16:00] [SPEAKER_00]: So, time is running out.
[00:16:02] [SPEAKER_00]: These boxes make great gifts for friends, family, even yourself.
[00:16:06] [SPEAKER_00]: Don't miss out on spreading the joy with gifts that support North Carolina-based small businesses.
[00:16:11] [SPEAKER_00]: Just visit simplyncgoods.com slash Pete and check them out.
[00:16:16] [SPEAKER_00]: That's simplyncgoods.com slash Pete,
[00:16:20] [SPEAKER_00]: and thanks for being a part of Simply NC Goods' story.
[00:16:25] [SPEAKER_00]: All right, back to this piece at the Daily Caller.
[00:16:28] [SPEAKER_00]: It's written by David Bossy, or Bossy.
[00:16:31] [SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, he says,
[00:16:31] [SPEAKER_00]: not only is the former president, Donald Trump,
[00:16:34] [SPEAKER_00]: leading in the last five polls taken in the Tar Heel State,
[00:16:37] [SPEAKER_00]: at this time, in 2016 and in 2020,
[00:16:42] [SPEAKER_00]: Trump was trailing both Clinton and Biden,
[00:16:45] [SPEAKER_00]: despite carrying the state a month later.
[00:16:49] [SPEAKER_00]: Right?
[00:16:50] [SPEAKER_00]: Trump won North Carolina both times.
[00:16:54] [SPEAKER_00]: And at this point, a month before the election,
[00:16:57] [SPEAKER_00]: in both of those contests,
[00:16:59] [SPEAKER_00]: he was polling behind Biden and Clinton.
[00:17:04] [SPEAKER_00]: The only question that remains
[00:17:06] [SPEAKER_00]: is what actions the Harris campaign will take
[00:17:09] [SPEAKER_00]: to ensure voters in western North Carolina
[00:17:11] [SPEAKER_00]: are not disenfranchised.
[00:17:12] [SPEAKER_00]: In the battleground states of Georgia and Arizona,
[00:17:16] [SPEAKER_00]: looking pretty bad for Harris there, too.
[00:17:18] [SPEAKER_00]: In 2020, Biden was polling better in those states
[00:17:22] [SPEAKER_00]: a month out from the election
[00:17:24] [SPEAKER_00]: than they did when the votes were counted.
[00:17:29] [SPEAKER_00]: And, like, that's not good for Harris
[00:17:31] [SPEAKER_00]: because the margin is closer.
[00:17:34] [SPEAKER_00]: Right?
[00:17:35] [SPEAKER_00]: Biden was polling better than he actually did.
[00:17:39] [SPEAKER_00]: Again, Trump underperforms in polling,
[00:17:43] [SPEAKER_00]: overperforms on Election Day.
[00:17:46] [SPEAKER_00]: Pennsylvania.
[00:17:47] [SPEAKER_00]: Democrat voter registration advantage there
[00:17:50] [SPEAKER_00]: has been cut in half over the last four years.
[00:17:54] [SPEAKER_00]: A month before the 2016 and 2020 elections,
[00:17:58] [SPEAKER_00]: on average,
[00:17:59] [SPEAKER_00]: former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
[00:18:01] [SPEAKER_00]: and former Vice President Joe Biden
[00:18:03] [SPEAKER_00]: were both leading Trump by more than seven points.
[00:18:08] [SPEAKER_00]: As it turned out,
[00:18:10] [SPEAKER_00]: Trump carried Pennsylvania in 2016.
[00:18:13] [SPEAKER_00]: And in 2020,
[00:18:14] [SPEAKER_00]: Biden barely won with 81,000 votes.
[00:18:18] [SPEAKER_00]: Today, polls in Pennsylvania show a tied race.
[00:18:23] [SPEAKER_00]: And so, if history is any indication,
[00:18:26] [SPEAKER_00]: Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes
[00:18:28] [SPEAKER_00]: look like they're going to land in Trump's column.
[00:18:32] [SPEAKER_00]: The Trump undervote phenomenon,
[00:18:35] [SPEAKER_00]: also in Michigan.
[00:18:37] [SPEAKER_00]: Three of the last four polls in Michigan
[00:18:40] [SPEAKER_00]: show Trump ahead of Harris.
[00:18:43] [SPEAKER_00]: Look at the numbers from 2016 and 2020.
[00:18:47] [SPEAKER_00]: Clinton and Biden both polled ahead of Trump
[00:18:50] [SPEAKER_00]: by more than six points.
[00:18:54] [SPEAKER_00]: Right?
[00:18:54] [SPEAKER_00]: So, either the polling
[00:18:59] [SPEAKER_00]: sampling group,
[00:19:01] [SPEAKER_00]: right,
[00:19:01] [SPEAKER_00]: the people that they poll,
[00:19:02] [SPEAKER_00]: either the methods and mechanisms
[00:19:06] [SPEAKER_00]: have completely changed
[00:19:08] [SPEAKER_00]: or Harris is in big trouble
[00:19:11] [SPEAKER_00]: because
[00:19:14] [SPEAKER_00]: Trump overperforms
[00:19:15] [SPEAKER_00]: and she's doing worse in the polling
[00:19:18] [SPEAKER_00]: than both Biden and Clinton
[00:19:20] [SPEAKER_00]: who,
[00:19:21] [SPEAKER_00]: if they didn't outright lose the state to Trump,
[00:19:24] [SPEAKER_00]: they barely won it.
[00:19:27] [SPEAKER_00]: And, finally,
[00:19:30] [SPEAKER_00]: Wisconsin
[00:19:31] [SPEAKER_00]: and Nevada.
[00:19:33] [SPEAKER_00]: Same situation.
[00:19:35] [SPEAKER_00]: Trump is polling stronger now
[00:19:36] [SPEAKER_00]: in those two states
[00:19:38] [SPEAKER_00]: than he did in 2016
[00:19:39] [SPEAKER_00]: or 2020
[00:19:41] [SPEAKER_00]: at the same time in the race.
[00:19:42] [SPEAKER_00]: So, a month out from the election,
[00:19:44] [SPEAKER_00]: Trump is doing better
[00:19:45] [SPEAKER_00]: in the polls
[00:19:46] [SPEAKER_00]: now
[00:19:46] [SPEAKER_00]: than he was
[00:19:47] [SPEAKER_00]: in his last two runs.
[00:19:49] [SPEAKER_00]: This election is going to be decided
[00:19:52] [SPEAKER_00]: in a small number of states.
[00:19:54] [SPEAKER_00]: About 80% of the states
[00:19:56] [SPEAKER_00]: are either safely Republican
[00:19:58] [SPEAKER_00]: or safely Democrat.
[00:20:01] [SPEAKER_00]: There are 10 states
[00:20:02] [SPEAKER_00]: where the battle
[00:20:04] [SPEAKER_00]: is going to be won
[00:20:05] [SPEAKER_00]: or lost.
[00:20:07] [SPEAKER_00]: Next, we go over to
[00:20:09] [SPEAKER_00]: HotAir.com.
[00:20:10] [SPEAKER_00]: David Strom
[00:20:11] [SPEAKER_00]: says,
[00:20:12] [SPEAKER_00]: one of the most important variables
[00:20:14] [SPEAKER_00]: that sticks out in polling
[00:20:15] [SPEAKER_00]: is one that very few people
[00:20:16] [SPEAKER_00]: seem to have noticed.
[00:20:17] [SPEAKER_00]: For the first time ever
[00:20:19] [SPEAKER_00]: in Gallup polling,
[00:20:21] [SPEAKER_00]: Republicans
[00:20:22] [SPEAKER_00]: have a party ID edge
[00:20:24] [SPEAKER_00]: over Democrats
[00:20:25] [SPEAKER_00]: right before
[00:20:26] [SPEAKER_00]: a presidential election.
[00:20:28] [SPEAKER_00]: What does that mean?
[00:20:31] [SPEAKER_00]: It means there are more
[00:20:32] [SPEAKER_00]: registered Republicans now
[00:20:35] [SPEAKER_00]: going into a presidential
[00:20:36] [SPEAKER_00]: a month out
[00:20:37] [SPEAKER_00]: of an election.
[00:20:38] [SPEAKER_00]: NBC polls
[00:20:39] [SPEAKER_00]: show the same thing.
[00:20:41] [SPEAKER_00]: Beneath the headline results
[00:20:43] [SPEAKER_00]: in many polls,
[00:20:44] [SPEAKER_00]: something unusual
[00:20:44] [SPEAKER_00]: has turned up
[00:20:45] [SPEAKER_00]: with big implications
[00:20:46] [SPEAKER_00]: for politics.
[00:20:48] [SPEAKER_00]: NBC reports
[00:20:49] [SPEAKER_00]: more voters
[00:20:50] [SPEAKER_00]: are calling themselves
[00:20:51] [SPEAKER_00]: Republicans
[00:20:52] [SPEAKER_00]: than Democrats,
[00:20:53] [SPEAKER_00]: suggesting that the GOP
[00:20:55] [SPEAKER_00]: has its first durable lead
[00:20:57] [SPEAKER_00]: in party identification
[00:20:58] [SPEAKER_00]: in more than three decades.
[00:21:01] [SPEAKER_00]: The development
[00:21:02] [SPEAKER_00]: gives former President
[00:21:04] [SPEAKER_00]: Donald Trump
[00:21:04] [SPEAKER_00]: an important structural
[00:21:06] [SPEAKER_00]: advantage
[00:21:06] [SPEAKER_00]: in the November election.
[00:21:08] [SPEAKER_00]: But other factors
[00:21:09] [SPEAKER_00]: could prove more important
[00:21:11] [SPEAKER_00]: to the outcome.
[00:21:12] [SPEAKER_00]: Democratic Vice President
[00:21:13] [SPEAKER_00]: Kamala Harris
[00:21:14] [SPEAKER_00]: still leads narrowly
[00:21:16] [SPEAKER_00]: in many of the polls,
[00:21:17] [SPEAKER_00]: in some cases
[00:21:18] [SPEAKER_00]: because she does well
[00:21:20] [SPEAKER_00]: with independent voters.
[00:21:21] [SPEAKER_00]: And that is true.
[00:21:23] [SPEAKER_00]: She is leading
[00:21:25] [SPEAKER_00]: in these polls.
[00:21:27] [SPEAKER_00]: But as I just went through,
[00:21:29] [SPEAKER_00]: what NBC doesn't mention
[00:21:31] [SPEAKER_00]: is that
[00:21:32] [SPEAKER_00]: Trump overperforms.
[00:21:34] [SPEAKER_00]: That the polling
[00:21:35] [SPEAKER_00]: doesn't capture
[00:21:37] [SPEAKER_00]: his actual level
[00:21:38] [SPEAKER_00]: of support
[00:21:40] [SPEAKER_00]: that is displayed
[00:21:42] [SPEAKER_00]: on Election Day.
[00:21:43] [SPEAKER_00]: In combined NBC polls
[00:21:45] [SPEAKER_00]: this year,
[00:21:46] [SPEAKER_00]: Republicans lead
[00:21:47] [SPEAKER_00]: by two percentage points
[00:21:48] [SPEAKER_00]: over Democrats,
[00:21:49] [SPEAKER_00]: 42 to 40%.
[00:21:51] [SPEAKER_00]: When you ask people
[00:21:53] [SPEAKER_00]: which party
[00:21:53] [SPEAKER_00]: they identify with,
[00:21:54] [SPEAKER_00]: 42% say Republicans
[00:21:56] [SPEAKER_00]: and 40% say Democrats.
[00:21:59] [SPEAKER_00]: That compares
[00:22:00] [SPEAKER_00]: with leads
[00:22:03] [SPEAKER_00]: in the past.
[00:22:03] [SPEAKER_00]: I'll break them down
[00:22:05] [SPEAKER_00]: as follows.
[00:22:05] [SPEAKER_00]: Back in 2012,
[00:22:07] [SPEAKER_00]: right?
[00:22:08] [SPEAKER_00]: So that would have been
[00:22:08] [SPEAKER_00]: Obama's re-election run
[00:22:10] [SPEAKER_00]: against Mitt Romney.
[00:22:12] [SPEAKER_00]: When people were asked
[00:22:13] [SPEAKER_00]: the same question,
[00:22:15] [SPEAKER_00]: Democrats had a
[00:22:15] [SPEAKER_00]: nine-point advantage.
[00:22:17] [SPEAKER_00]: Four years later,
[00:22:19] [SPEAKER_00]: Clinton versus Trump,
[00:22:20] [SPEAKER_00]: Democrats had a
[00:22:21] [SPEAKER_00]: seven-point advantage.
[00:22:24] [SPEAKER_00]: Four years later,
[00:22:26] [SPEAKER_00]: Biden versus Trump,
[00:22:28] [SPEAKER_00]: Democrats had a
[00:22:29] [SPEAKER_00]: six-point advantage.
[00:22:32] [SPEAKER_00]: And now,
[00:22:34] [SPEAKER_00]: Republicans
[00:22:35] [SPEAKER_00]: have a
[00:22:36] [SPEAKER_00]: two-point advantage.
[00:22:38] [SPEAKER_00]: See,
[00:22:38] [SPEAKER_00]: this is why,
[00:22:39] [SPEAKER_00]: and I played that clip
[00:22:40] [SPEAKER_00]: yesterday,
[00:22:41] [SPEAKER_00]: this is why
[00:22:43] [SPEAKER_00]: Kamala Harris'
[00:22:45] [SPEAKER_00]: comments about
[00:22:45] [SPEAKER_00]: how,
[00:22:46] [SPEAKER_00]: you know,
[00:22:46] [SPEAKER_00]: she,
[00:22:47] [SPEAKER_00]: well,
[00:22:47] [SPEAKER_00]: here,
[00:22:47] [SPEAKER_00]: I'll just play
[00:22:47] [SPEAKER_00]: the clip again.
[00:22:48] [SPEAKER_01]: Would you have done
[00:22:49] [SPEAKER_01]: something differently
[00:22:50] [SPEAKER_01]: than President Biden
[00:22:51] [SPEAKER_01]: during the past four years?
[00:22:54] [SPEAKER_02]: There is not a thing
[00:22:56] [SPEAKER_02]: that comes to mind
[00:22:57] [SPEAKER_02]: in terms of,
[00:22:58] [SPEAKER_02]: and I've been
[00:22:58] [SPEAKER_02]: a part of
[00:23:00] [SPEAKER_02]: most of the decisions
[00:23:01] [SPEAKER_02]: that have had
[00:23:02] [SPEAKER_02]: impact.
[00:23:04] [SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
[00:23:05] [SPEAKER_00]: So,
[00:23:06] [SPEAKER_00]: if we are to assume,
[00:23:07] [SPEAKER_00]: and I think it's a
[00:23:08] [SPEAKER_00]: pretty good assumption,
[00:23:09] [SPEAKER_00]: that the swing
[00:23:10] [SPEAKER_00]: in voter registration
[00:23:12] [SPEAKER_00]: is due at least
[00:23:13] [SPEAKER_00]: in some measure
[00:23:14] [SPEAKER_00]: to Joe Biden's
[00:23:16] [SPEAKER_00]: unpopularity
[00:23:17] [SPEAKER_00]: because he is like
[00:23:17] [SPEAKER_00]: the most unpopular
[00:23:19] [SPEAKER_00]: president,
[00:23:22] [SPEAKER_00]: then she's
[00:23:23] [SPEAKER_00]: going to be
[00:23:24] [SPEAKER_00]: dragged down by that.
[00:23:25] [SPEAKER_00]: And she's not doing
[00:23:27] [SPEAKER_00]: anything to
[00:23:27] [SPEAKER_00]: differentiate herself
[00:23:28] [SPEAKER_00]: from Biden.
[00:23:29] [SPEAKER_00]: So,
[00:23:30] [SPEAKER_00]: when I was a kid,
[00:23:31] [SPEAKER_00]: my grandpa died
[00:23:31] [SPEAKER_00]: with Alzheimer's.
[00:23:32] [SPEAKER_00]: And before he died,
[00:23:33] [SPEAKER_00]: my mom and my dad
[00:23:34] [SPEAKER_00]: and all of us
[00:23:35] [SPEAKER_00]: really helped take
[00:23:36] [SPEAKER_00]: care of him
[00:23:36] [SPEAKER_00]: as he got
[00:23:37] [SPEAKER_00]: progressively worse.
[00:23:38] [SPEAKER_00]: Forty years ago,
[00:23:39] [SPEAKER_00]: there were no treatments
[00:23:40] [SPEAKER_00]: and not much support
[00:23:41] [SPEAKER_00]: for caregivers
[00:23:42] [SPEAKER_00]: and family.
[00:23:43] [SPEAKER_00]: Things are different
[00:23:44] [SPEAKER_00]: today because of
[00:23:45] [SPEAKER_00]: the work of so many
[00:23:46] [SPEAKER_00]: people,
[00:23:46] [SPEAKER_00]: including the Alzheimer's
[00:23:47] [SPEAKER_00]: Association of
[00:23:48] [SPEAKER_00]: Western North Carolina.
[00:23:49] [SPEAKER_00]: It's a great
[00:23:50] [SPEAKER_00]: organization with
[00:23:51] [SPEAKER_00]: awesome people.
[00:23:52] [SPEAKER_00]: They've got huge
[00:23:53] [SPEAKER_00]: hearts.
[00:23:53] [SPEAKER_00]: I've been a supporter
[00:23:54] [SPEAKER_00]: for like 25 years.
[00:23:56] [SPEAKER_00]: This cause means
[00:23:56] [SPEAKER_00]: a lot to me.
[00:23:58] [SPEAKER_00]: I participate in the
[00:23:59] [SPEAKER_00]: annual walk to end
[00:24:00] [SPEAKER_00]: Alzheimer's and I am
[00:24:02] [SPEAKER_00]: leading a Charlotte
[00:24:02] [SPEAKER_00]: team this year.
[00:24:03] [SPEAKER_00]: It's called Pete's
[00:24:04] [SPEAKER_00]: Pack.
[00:24:05] [SPEAKER_00]: You can sign up and
[00:24:06] [SPEAKER_00]: join the team and
[00:24:06] [SPEAKER_00]: walk with me.
[00:24:07] [SPEAKER_00]: It's on October 19th
[00:24:09] [SPEAKER_00]: at Truist Field in
[00:24:10] [SPEAKER_00]: Uptown.
[00:24:11] [SPEAKER_00]: Sign up at
[00:24:12] [SPEAKER_00]: alz.org
[00:24:13] [SPEAKER_00]: slash walk and
[00:24:14] [SPEAKER_00]: then just look for
[00:24:14] [SPEAKER_00]: my team,
[00:24:15] [SPEAKER_00]: Pete's Pack.
[00:24:16] [SPEAKER_00]: And there's also a
[00:24:17] [SPEAKER_00]: link in the podcast
[00:24:18] [SPEAKER_00]: description here.
[00:24:19] [SPEAKER_00]: Also, I'm going to be
[00:24:19] [SPEAKER_00]: emceeing the
[00:24:20] [SPEAKER_00]: Gastonia Walk on
[00:24:21] [SPEAKER_00]: October 5th.
[00:24:22] [SPEAKER_00]: So make a team
[00:24:23] [SPEAKER_00]: or make a donation
[00:24:25] [SPEAKER_00]: to help me hit my
[00:24:26] [SPEAKER_00]: goal.
[00:24:26] [SPEAKER_00]: I would really
[00:24:27] [SPEAKER_00]: appreciate it.
[00:24:27] [SPEAKER_00]: There are a bunch
[00:24:29] [SPEAKER_00]: of other walks around
[00:24:30] [SPEAKER_00]: the Carolinas and
[00:24:31] [SPEAKER_00]: you can go to
[00:24:31] [SPEAKER_00]: alz.org for all of
[00:24:34] [SPEAKER_00]: the dates and
[00:24:34] [SPEAKER_00]: locations.
[00:24:35] [SPEAKER_00]: We are closer
[00:24:36] [SPEAKER_00]: than ever to
[00:24:37] [SPEAKER_00]: stopping Alzheimer's
[00:24:38] [SPEAKER_00]: and if you can
[00:24:39] [SPEAKER_00]: help us get there,
[00:24:41] [SPEAKER_00]: we would really
[00:24:41] [SPEAKER_00]: appreciate it.
[00:24:42] [SPEAKER_00]: Will you come
[00:24:42] [SPEAKER_00]: walk with me for
[00:24:43] [SPEAKER_00]: a different future,
[00:24:44] [SPEAKER_00]: for families,
[00:24:45] [SPEAKER_00]: for more time,
[00:24:46] [SPEAKER_00]: for treatments?
[00:24:47] [SPEAKER_00]: This is why I
[00:24:48] [SPEAKER_00]: walk.
[00:24:49] [SPEAKER_00]: So the piece
[00:24:51] [SPEAKER_00]: at hotair.com
[00:24:52] [SPEAKER_00]: looking at the
[00:24:52] [SPEAKER_00]: polling and
[00:24:53] [SPEAKER_00]: that Gallup
[00:24:55] [SPEAKER_00]: has found
[00:24:55] [SPEAKER_00]: as well as
[00:24:56] [SPEAKER_00]: NBC has
[00:24:57] [SPEAKER_00]: found that
[00:24:59] [SPEAKER_00]: by registration
[00:25:00] [SPEAKER_00]: there are now
[00:25:00] [SPEAKER_00]: more Republicans
[00:25:01] [SPEAKER_00]: than Democrats
[00:25:02] [SPEAKER_00]: or by,
[00:25:02] [SPEAKER_00]: sorry,
[00:25:03] [SPEAKER_00]: by self-identification,
[00:25:04] [SPEAKER_00]: not by registration,
[00:25:05] [SPEAKER_00]: by self-identification.
[00:25:06] [SPEAKER_00]: In the polls
[00:25:07] [SPEAKER_00]: that Gallup
[00:25:09] [SPEAKER_00]: takes on a
[00:25:09] [SPEAKER_00]: regular basis,
[00:25:10] [SPEAKER_00]: they ask people
[00:25:11] [SPEAKER_00]: do identify as a
[00:25:12] [SPEAKER_00]: Republican or
[00:25:13] [SPEAKER_00]: Democrat and
[00:25:14] [SPEAKER_00]: for the first time
[00:25:14] [SPEAKER_00]: in 30-something
[00:25:15] [SPEAKER_00]: years,
[00:25:16] [SPEAKER_00]: more people say
[00:25:17] [SPEAKER_00]: Republican.
[00:25:17] [SPEAKER_00]: It's only two
[00:25:18] [SPEAKER_00]: percentage points,
[00:25:19] [SPEAKER_00]: but that's the
[00:25:20] [SPEAKER_00]: first time.
[00:25:21] [SPEAKER_00]: where was I
[00:25:22] [SPEAKER_00]: here?
[00:25:23] [SPEAKER_00]: The development
[00:25:24] [SPEAKER_00]: gives former
[00:25:25] [SPEAKER_00]: President Trump
[00:25:25] [SPEAKER_00]: an important
[00:25:26] [SPEAKER_00]: structural
[00:25:28] [SPEAKER_00]: advantage.
[00:25:30] [SPEAKER_00]: Republicans being
[00:25:31] [SPEAKER_00]: five to nine
[00:25:32] [SPEAKER_00]: points down on
[00:25:32] [SPEAKER_00]: party identification,
[00:25:33] [SPEAKER_00]: that is like
[00:25:34] [SPEAKER_00]: running uphill.
[00:25:35] [SPEAKER_00]: We won't know,
[00:25:36] [SPEAKER_00]: this is according
[00:25:37] [SPEAKER_00]: to a fellow
[00:25:38] [SPEAKER_00]: by the name
[00:25:38] [SPEAKER_00]: of Bill
[00:25:40] [SPEAKER_00]: McIntyre,
[00:25:41] [SPEAKER_00]: a GOP
[00:25:42] [SPEAKER_00]: pollster.
[00:25:42] [SPEAKER_00]: He says,
[00:25:43] [SPEAKER_00]: we don't know
[00:25:44] [SPEAKER_00]: the election's
[00:25:45] [SPEAKER_00]: outcome,
[00:25:45] [SPEAKER_00]: but we know
[00:25:46] [SPEAKER_00]: Republicans have
[00:25:46] [SPEAKER_00]: a better shot
[00:25:47] [SPEAKER_00]: at doing well
[00:25:48] [SPEAKER_00]: if party
[00:25:49] [SPEAKER_00]: identification is
[00:25:50] [SPEAKER_00]: functionally tied
[00:25:51] [SPEAKER_00]: with perhaps
[00:25:52] [SPEAKER_00]: the smallest
[00:25:53] [SPEAKER_00]: tilt towards
[00:25:54] [SPEAKER_00]: Republicans.
[00:25:55] [SPEAKER_00]: Gallup has
[00:25:55] [SPEAKER_00]: also found
[00:25:56] [SPEAKER_00]: more voters
[00:25:57] [SPEAKER_00]: identifying as
[00:25:57] [SPEAKER_00]: Republican than
[00:25:58] [SPEAKER_00]: Democrat by
[00:25:59] [SPEAKER_00]: three points
[00:25:59] [SPEAKER_00]: in its July
[00:26:00] [SPEAKER_00]: to September
[00:26:01] [SPEAKER_00]: surveys.
[00:26:02] [SPEAKER_00]: It was the
[00:26:02] [SPEAKER_00]: first time
[00:26:03] [SPEAKER_00]: that the GOP
[00:26:04] [SPEAKER_00]: had an
[00:26:04] [SPEAKER_00]: advantage in
[00:26:05] [SPEAKER_00]: the third
[00:26:05] [SPEAKER_00]: quarter before
[00:26:06] [SPEAKER_00]: presidential election
[00:26:07] [SPEAKER_00]: in Gallup
[00:26:08] [SPEAKER_00]: surveys dating
[00:26:09] [SPEAKER_00]: back to
[00:26:09] [SPEAKER_00]: 1992.
[00:26:12] [SPEAKER_00]: every pollster,
[00:26:13] [SPEAKER_00]: according to
[00:26:14] [SPEAKER_00]: David Strom,
[00:26:15] [SPEAKER_00]: has a
[00:26:16] [SPEAKER_00]: special sauce
[00:26:17] [SPEAKER_00]: they use
[00:26:18] [SPEAKER_00]: to model
[00:26:20] [SPEAKER_00]: the electorate
[00:26:20] [SPEAKER_00]: including
[00:26:21] [SPEAKER_00]: the weighting,
[00:26:22] [SPEAKER_00]: like how much
[00:26:23] [SPEAKER_00]: weight to put
[00:26:24] [SPEAKER_00]: on party ID.
[00:26:25] [SPEAKER_00]: Honest
[00:26:26] [SPEAKER_00]: pollsters
[00:26:27] [SPEAKER_00]: are not
[00:26:28] [SPEAKER_00]: cooking the
[00:26:28] [SPEAKER_00]: books so
[00:26:29] [SPEAKER_00]: much as
[00:26:30] [SPEAKER_00]: trying to
[00:26:30] [SPEAKER_00]: reshape
[00:26:31] [SPEAKER_00]: their data
[00:26:31] [SPEAKER_00]: to fit
[00:26:32] [SPEAKER_00]: their model
[00:26:32] [SPEAKER_00]: of what
[00:26:33] [SPEAKER_00]: a truly
[00:26:33] [SPEAKER_00]: random
[00:26:34] [SPEAKER_00]: sample
[00:26:34] [SPEAKER_00]: would look
[00:26:35] [SPEAKER_00]: like.
[00:26:35] [SPEAKER_00]: Of course,
[00:26:36] [SPEAKER_00]: if the
[00:26:36] [SPEAKER_00]: electorate
[00:26:36] [SPEAKER_00]: doesn't
[00:26:37] [SPEAKER_00]: look like
[00:26:37] [SPEAKER_00]: the model,
[00:26:38] [SPEAKER_00]: then the
[00:26:38] [SPEAKER_00]: poll is
[00:26:39] [SPEAKER_00]: going to
[00:26:39] [SPEAKER_00]: be wrong.
[00:26:39] [SPEAKER_00]: This
[00:26:40] [SPEAKER_00]: is not
[00:26:40] [SPEAKER_00]: a
[00:26:40] [SPEAKER_00]: margin
[00:26:41] [SPEAKER_00]: of
[00:26:41] [SPEAKER_00]: error,
[00:26:42] [SPEAKER_00]: which is
[00:26:42] [SPEAKER_00]: calculated
[00:26:43] [SPEAKER_00]: by the
[00:26:43] [SPEAKER_00]: number
[00:26:43] [SPEAKER_00]: of
[00:26:43] [SPEAKER_00]: data
[00:26:43] [SPEAKER_00]: points.
[00:26:44] [SPEAKER_00]: It is
[00:26:44] [SPEAKER_00]: a
[00:26:44] [SPEAKER_00]: fundamental
[00:26:45] [SPEAKER_00]: problem
[00:26:45] [SPEAKER_00]: with
[00:26:46] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:26:46] [SPEAKER_00]: data
[00:26:47] [SPEAKER_00]: because
[00:26:48] [SPEAKER_00]: it's
[00:26:48] [SPEAKER_00]: not
[00:26:48] [SPEAKER_00]: randomly
[00:26:49] [SPEAKER_00]: collected.
[00:26:50] [SPEAKER_00]: I know
[00:26:51] [SPEAKER_00]: this is
[00:26:51] [SPEAKER_00]: getting
[00:26:51] [SPEAKER_00]: into
[00:26:52] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:26:53] [SPEAKER_00]: math
[00:26:53] [SPEAKER_00]: and
[00:26:53] [SPEAKER_00]: mechanics
[00:26:54] [SPEAKER_00]: of
[00:26:54] [SPEAKER_00]: this
[00:26:54] [SPEAKER_00]: stuff,
[00:26:55] [SPEAKER_00]: but
[00:27:10] [SPEAKER_00]: going
[00:27:10] [SPEAKER_00]: to
[00:27:12] [SPEAKER_00]: in
[00:27:15] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:27:16] [SPEAKER_00]: time
[00:27:16] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:27:18] [SPEAKER_00]: Trump
[00:27:18] [SPEAKER_00]: voter.
[00:27:19] [SPEAKER_00]: The
[00:27:19] [SPEAKER_00]: polls
[00:27:20] [SPEAKER_00]: in the
[00:27:20] [SPEAKER_00]: last
[00:27:20] [SPEAKER_00]: two
[00:27:20] [SPEAKER_00]: presidential
[00:27:21] [SPEAKER_00]: elections
[00:27:21] [SPEAKER_00]: were
[00:27:22] [SPEAKER_00]: horribly
[00:27:22] [SPEAKER_00]: off,
[00:27:23] [SPEAKER_00]: well
[00:27:23] [SPEAKER_00]: outside
[00:27:24] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:27:24] [SPEAKER_00]: margin
[00:27:24] [SPEAKER_00]: of
[00:27:24] [SPEAKER_00]: error
[00:27:24] [SPEAKER_00]: because
[00:27:25] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:27:25] [SPEAKER_00]: model
[00:27:25] [SPEAKER_00]: of
[00:27:26] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:27:26] [SPEAKER_00]: electorate
[00:27:26] [SPEAKER_00]: was
[00:27:27] [SPEAKER_00]: wrong.
[00:27:28] [SPEAKER_00]: In
[00:27:29] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:27:29] [SPEAKER_00]: real
[00:27:29] [SPEAKER_00]: clear
[00:27:29] [SPEAKER_00]: politics
[00:27:30] [SPEAKER_00]: poll
[00:27:30] [SPEAKER_00]: average
[00:27:30] [SPEAKER_00]: for
[00:27:31] [SPEAKER_00]: today,
[00:27:31] [SPEAKER_00]: they
[00:27:31] [SPEAKER_00]: have
[00:27:31] [SPEAKER_00]: Harris
[00:27:32] [SPEAKER_00]: up
[00:27:32] [SPEAKER_00]: two
[00:27:33] [SPEAKER_00]: points.
[00:27:33] [SPEAKER_00]: That
[00:27:34] [SPEAKER_00]: is
[00:27:35] [SPEAKER_00]: almost
[00:27:35] [SPEAKER_00]: eight
[00:27:35] [SPEAKER_00]: points
[00:27:36] [SPEAKER_00]: lower
[00:27:36] [SPEAKER_00]: than
[00:27:37] [SPEAKER_00]: Biden's
[00:27:38] [SPEAKER_00]: average
[00:27:38] [SPEAKER_00]: in
[00:27:39] [SPEAKER_00]: 2020.
[00:27:40] [SPEAKER_00]: So
[00:27:40] [SPEAKER_00]: at
[00:27:40] [SPEAKER_00]: this
[00:27:41] [SPEAKER_00]: point,
[00:27:41] [SPEAKER_00]: four
[00:27:42] [SPEAKER_00]: years
[00:27:42] [SPEAKER_00]: ago,
[00:27:43] [SPEAKER_00]: Biden
[00:27:44] [SPEAKER_00]: was up
[00:27:44] [SPEAKER_00]: by
[00:27:44] [SPEAKER_00]: like
[00:27:45] [SPEAKER_00]: 10
[00:27:45] [SPEAKER_00]: points
[00:27:46] [SPEAKER_00]: and
[00:27:46] [SPEAKER_00]: now
[00:27:47] [SPEAKER_00]: Harris
[00:27:47] [SPEAKER_00]: is
[00:27:47] [SPEAKER_00]: only
[00:27:47] [SPEAKER_00]: up
[00:27:47] [SPEAKER_00]: by
[00:27:48] [SPEAKER_00]: two.
[00:27:48] [SPEAKER_00]: Political
[00:27:49] [SPEAKER_00]: consultants
[00:27:50] [SPEAKER_00]: know
[00:27:51] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:27:51] [SPEAKER_00]: strengths
[00:27:51] [SPEAKER_00]: and
[00:27:52] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:27:52] [SPEAKER_00]: weaknesses
[00:27:52] [SPEAKER_00]: of
[00:27:52] [SPEAKER_00]: polls
[00:27:53] [SPEAKER_00]: and
[00:27:53] [SPEAKER_00]: they
[00:27:53] [SPEAKER_00]: are
[00:27:53] [SPEAKER_00]: much
[00:27:54] [SPEAKER_00]: more
[00:27:54] [SPEAKER_00]: demanding
[00:27:55] [SPEAKER_00]: than
[00:27:55] [SPEAKER_00]: media
[00:27:55] [SPEAKER_00]: outlets
[00:27:56] [SPEAKER_00]: because
[00:27:56] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:27:57] [SPEAKER_00]: consultants
[00:27:58] [SPEAKER_00]: use
[00:27:58] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:27:58] [SPEAKER_00]: data
[00:27:59] [SPEAKER_00]: not
[00:27:59] [SPEAKER_00]: to
[00:28:00] [SPEAKER_00]: generate
[00:28:00] [SPEAKER_00]: interest
[00:28:00] [SPEAKER_00]: in
[00:28:00] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:28:01] [SPEAKER_00]: story
[00:28:01] [SPEAKER_00]: but
[00:28:04] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:28:05] [SPEAKER_00]: horse
[00:28:05] [SPEAKER_00]: race
[00:28:05] [SPEAKER_00]: polling
[00:28:05] [SPEAKER_00]: is
[00:28:06] [SPEAKER_00]: why
[00:28:06] [SPEAKER_00]: I
[00:28:06] [SPEAKER_00]: don't
[00:28:06] [SPEAKER_00]: really
[00:28:07] [SPEAKER_00]: care
[00:28:07] [SPEAKER_00]: about
[00:28:07] [SPEAKER_00]: it
[00:28:07] [SPEAKER_00]: that's
[00:28:08] [SPEAKER_00]: for
[00:28:08] [SPEAKER_00]: entertainment
[00:28:09] [SPEAKER_00]: purposes
[00:28:09] [SPEAKER_00]: for
[00:28:10] [SPEAKER_00]: political
[00:28:10] [SPEAKER_00]: junkies
[00:28:11] [SPEAKER_00]: internal
[00:28:12] [SPEAKER_00]: campaign
[00:28:12] [SPEAKER_00]: polls
[00:28:13] [SPEAKER_00]: are
[00:28:14] [SPEAKER_00]: used
[00:28:14] [SPEAKER_00]: to
[00:28:15] [SPEAKER_00]: direct
[00:28:15] [SPEAKER_00]: strategy
[00:28:16] [SPEAKER_00]: and
[00:28:17] [SPEAKER_00]: he
[00:28:17] [SPEAKER_00]: says
[00:28:17] [SPEAKER_00]: that's
[00:28:18] [SPEAKER_00]: why
[00:28:18] [SPEAKER_00]: you
[00:28:19] [SPEAKER_00]: are
[00:28:19] [SPEAKER_00]: seeing
[00:28:19] [SPEAKER_00]: a
[00:28:19] [SPEAKER_00]: shift
[00:28:19] [SPEAKER_00]: in
[00:28:20] [SPEAKER_00]: Harris's
[00:28:20] [SPEAKER_00]: strategy
[00:28:21] [SPEAKER_00]: her
[00:28:21] [SPEAKER_00]: internals
[00:28:22] [SPEAKER_00]: clearly
[00:28:24] [SPEAKER_00]: told her
[00:28:24] [SPEAKER_00]: that
[00:28:25] [SPEAKER_00]: what
[00:28:25] [SPEAKER_00]: she
[00:28:33] [SPEAKER_00]: tend
[00:28:34] [SPEAKER_00]: to
[00:28:34] [SPEAKER_00]: be
[00:28:34] [SPEAKER_00]: way
[00:28:34] [SPEAKER_00]: more
[00:28:34] [SPEAKER_00]: stringent
[00:28:35] [SPEAKER_00]: about
[00:28:35] [SPEAKER_00]: their
[00:28:36] [SPEAKER_00]: methods
[00:28:36] [SPEAKER_00]: because
[00:28:36] [SPEAKER_00]: they
[00:28:36] [SPEAKER_00]: need
[00:28:37] [SPEAKER_00]: repeat
[00:28:37] [SPEAKER_00]: clients
[00:28:38] [SPEAKER_00]: who
[00:28:38] [SPEAKER_00]: demand
[00:28:38] [SPEAKER_00]: a lot
[00:28:39] [SPEAKER_00]: more
[00:28:39] [SPEAKER_00]: than
[00:28:39] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:28:40] [SPEAKER_00]: news
[00:28:40] [SPEAKER_00]: outlets
[00:28:40] [SPEAKER_00]: do
[00:28:40] [SPEAKER_00]: all
[00:28:41] [SPEAKER_00]: right
[00:28:41] [SPEAKER_00]: that'll
[00:28:41] [SPEAKER_00]: do it
[00:28:42] [SPEAKER_00]: for
[00:28:42] [SPEAKER_00]: this
[00:28:42] [SPEAKER_00]: episode
[00:28:43] [SPEAKER_00]: thank you
[00:28:43] [SPEAKER_00]: so much
[00:28:43] [SPEAKER_00]: for
[00:28:44] [SPEAKER_00]: listening
[00:28:44] [SPEAKER_00]: I
[00:28:44] [SPEAKER_00]: could
[00:28:45] [SPEAKER_00]: not
[00:28:45] [SPEAKER_00]: do
[00:28:45] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:28:45] [SPEAKER_00]: show
[00:28:45] [SPEAKER_00]: without
[00:28:45] [SPEAKER_00]: your
[00:28:46] [SPEAKER_00]: support
[00:28:46] [SPEAKER_00]: and
[00:28:46] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:28:47] [SPEAKER_00]: support
[00:28:47] [SPEAKER_00]: of
[00:28:47] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:28:47] [SPEAKER_00]: businesses
[00:28:47] [SPEAKER_00]: that
[00:28:48] [SPEAKER_00]: advertise
[00:28:48] [SPEAKER_00]: on
[00:28:48] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:28:49] [SPEAKER_00]: podcast
[00:28:49] [SPEAKER_00]: so
[00:28:50] [SPEAKER_00]: if
[00:28:50] [SPEAKER_00]: you'd
[00:28:50] [SPEAKER_00]: like
[00:28:50] [SPEAKER_00]: please
[00:28:50] [SPEAKER_00]: support
[00:28:51] [SPEAKER_00]: them
[00:28:51] [SPEAKER_00]: too
[00:28:51] [SPEAKER_00]: and tell
[00:28:52] [SPEAKER_00]: them
[00:28:52] [SPEAKER_00]: you
[00:28:52] [SPEAKER_00]: heard
[00:28:52] [SPEAKER_00]: it
[00:28:52] [SPEAKER_00]: here
[00:28:52] [SPEAKER_00]: you
[00:28:53] [SPEAKER_00]: can
[00:28:53] [SPEAKER_00]: also
[00:28:53] [SPEAKER_00]: become
[00:28:53] [SPEAKER_00]: a
[00:28:53] [SPEAKER_00]: patron
[00:28:54] [SPEAKER_00]: at
[00:28:54] [SPEAKER_00]: my
[00:28:54] [SPEAKER_00]: patreon
[00:28:54] [SPEAKER_00]: page
[00:28:55] [SPEAKER_00]: or
[00:28:55] [SPEAKER_00]: go
[00:28:55] [SPEAKER_00]: to
[00:28:56] [SPEAKER_00]: the
[00:28:56] [SPEAKER_00]: pete
[00:28:56] [SPEAKER_00]: calendar
[00:28:57] [SPEAKER_00]: show
[00:28:57] [SPEAKER_00]: dot com
[00:28:58] [SPEAKER_00]: again
[00:28:58] [SPEAKER_00]: thank you
[00:28:59] [SPEAKER_00]: so much
[00:28:59] [SPEAKER_00]: for
[00:28:59] [SPEAKER_00]: listening
[00:28:59] [SPEAKER_00]: and
[00:29:00] [SPEAKER_00]: don't
[00:29:00] [SPEAKER_00]: break
[00:29:00] [SPEAKER_00]: anything
[00:29:01] [SPEAKER_00]: while
[00:29:01] [SPEAKER_00]: I'm
[00:29:01] [SPEAKER_00]: gone