Andrew Dunn on NC Democrats' identity crisis (07-01-2025--Hour1)

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[00:00:29] It is Tuesday at noon, and that means we chat with Andrew Dunn. He is the publisher of Longleaf Politics. You can read that at longleafpol.com. And he is also a contributing columnist over at the Charlotte Observer. Andrew, how are you, sir? I'm great. Just trying to stay out of Alligator Alcatraz.

[00:00:48] Well, if you're not an illegal alien, I think you're off to a very good start. So don't let that be something that keeps you up at night. Unless, of course, you are an illegal alien, and you would like to make a confession right now on the radio? No comment. Okay. Fair enough. All right. So first off, I'm not sure, have you said in one of your posts at Longleaf Politics that you would be writing something up on the Tillis decision? Have you published that yet?

[00:01:17] And if not, well, what is it that, how did that strike you yesterday? I spent all show talking about it yesterday. So I'm kind of Tillis'd out at the moment. What were your reactions? Oh, yeah. I bet. Yeah, I had a column go up on the Charlotte Observer, actually, on Sunday, writing about that. You know, I was actually writing something about when President Trump did his tirade against Tillis after he voted against the one big, beautiful bill.

[00:01:47] And I had to pivot pretty quick and adapt it to the news that Tillis was actually dropping out. I wasn't surprised to see that he's not running for re-election. I was a little surprised by the timing, you know, coming just so soon after that, that Truth Social blow up. My first reaction was, oh, this has got to be some kind of AI hoax. But it turned out not to be.

[00:02:12] But, you know, my main takeaway there is, you know, this has happened so many times before where, you know, Tillis has gotten on the wrong side of President Trump, you know, in regards to the Pete Hegseth nomination. And then there was the border wall emergency funding thing in President Trump's first term. And, you know, every time Senator Tillis has been able to patch things up, you know, pretty quickly.

[00:02:40] But I guess either he felt like this was, you know, the ultimate breakup with President Trump or he was just tired of trying to pretend to be somebody he's not. So I and my thought yesterday after going through, you know, the tweets and all of that stuff and listening to his floor speech and then going, you know, deep into the argument he was making about Medicaid and the trigger in the North Carolina law and all of this, you know, the payments and then the rebates from the hospitals.

[00:03:10] My prediction and I don't make a lot of predictions because I'm really not good at it. And this will probably be another example of why I don't do them. I suspect he may go work for a hospital system. That's that. That's I think that after listening to his comments, I think that's that's where he may land, maybe a lobbyist or a government liaison or something like that. It's I don't know.

[00:03:34] It's just the argument he was making in order to protect these, you know, these payoffs basically to the hospital systems and offloading all the cost of the Medicaid expansion onto federal taxes. So the state doesn't have to pay any money at all towards the new expansion class. It was just I don't know. Yeah, it just struck me as hollow. Yeah, I mean, it was you may be right. And that wouldn't surprise me.

[00:04:00] But I was a little surprised to see such passion from Tillis on this issue in particular. I mean, Tillis was Speaker of the House in North Carolina right after, you know, met, you know, the Affordable Care Act. And nobody was in favor of Medicaid expansion. So I'm a little confused as to, you know, when his position switched on it. You know, there is an argument to be made for doing a little bit more to help support rural hospitals.

[00:04:27] But I don't think that Medicaid has to be the way to do it or is even the best way to do that. Yeah, I agree. Now, one of the names floated as a potential candidate even before he announced his dropping out. But now even more so, Jeff Jackson, the attorney general, and we've talked about him and whether or not it would make sense for him to look to run for another seat after he just got into the AG's office. But you've got a post up at Longleaf Politics about something he has launched called the Lighthouse Fund.

[00:04:56] So what is that and what's its aim? Yeah, so, I mean, like it's politics or not, Jeff Jackson is the smartest political communicator North Carolina has seen, at least in my lifetime, for sure. And he put out an email the other day asking for folks to contribute to, you know, like you said, the Lighthouse Fund. It's really just a fancy name for something pretty simple.

[00:05:19] He wants to target one million unaffiliated voters with a digital ad once a month between now and his next election. And he asked people to chip in for that. Now, it's not uncommon for political figures to target people, you know, off cycle. But there were two things that were unusual here, and that's why I ended up writing about it. You know, first, he actually puts a price tag on it.

[00:05:45] You know, he says $9,500 a month to reach a million unaffiliated voters. Kind of unusual for people to actually put that specific price tag on there. And then he's also, what I think is really smart, is he's asking people to donate for a really specific purpose. You know, I get dozens and dozens of fundraising emails every month.

[00:06:10] And they're all, you know, pretty much, you know, donate now to help me stop the opposing party. It's more general. I think it's really smart to ask people to chip in for something really specific. I would have to guess that his conversion rate is pretty high on that. Yeah, you say every politician should be thinking about off cycle messaging like this. And I would just throw this out, you know, Newstalk 1110 993 WBT if you'd like to advertise.

[00:06:35] Um, the the other thing you've got, this was at the Charlotte Observer that I took interest in is a piece titled in North Carolina. Democrats have an identity crisis. And I've been some may say I have been a little harsh on the Democrat Party chair, Anderson Clayton or Anderson Clayton. Right. Yeah. Because I always think I'm saying her name backwards.

[00:06:59] Um, and over her, you know, rural outreach efforts, which as far as I can tell is like saying y'all a lot. And and it's like cussing. I think those are the like those are the main components. I kid she's also doing the listening tour, but I'm not so sure that and you you do a good job of highlighting this. Like can can the Democrats be two things at once? And I don't think they can. Right.

[00:07:29] They're trying to win back rural voters, rural Democrats. But they also, you say, are tethered to a base that demands loud affirmation on social issues. And I don't I don't see a way to bridge that divide. Do you? I don't, you know, and the reason why I wrote about this was, you know, I've been following the rural listening tour and it seems like they've had decent attendance here and there. But I noticed on their calendar they've got the rural listening tour going on.

[00:07:59] And then in the same week they they hosted a drag brunch in Raleigh. And, you know, to me, there's there's a whole lot of tension between those two two goals. So my question was, can they do both at the same time? You know, I spoke with Anderson Clayton and, you know, of course, she says, yes, they can. They can walk and chew gum at the same time, as she says. But I'm a little bit more skeptical of this. You know, there's a reason why Democrats have been hemorrhaging rural votes over the last 10 years.

[00:08:29] And I think a lot of that has to do with social issues and mixed messaging. And, you know, when a lot of these voters who, you know, live in small town, North Carolina, you know, when they keep seeing all these, you know, social messages that don't align with their their worldview. And I think hosting a drag brunch at 11 a.m. on a Sunday when a lot of folks are supposed to be in church. I think that sends a clear message that that they're not on the same side.

[00:08:59] Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. This is one of the things I've said before, these listening tours. First off, most of the people that show up to those things are Democrats already. It's not like they're bringing in, you know, conservatives or unaffiliated that are lean conservative. It seems like they're just it's just like a complaint a thon where, you know, Democrats go in there and talk about how bad things are with the Republicans in charge. And the other thing is that it's like they're they call it a listening tour.

[00:09:27] And it's it's one of these words that I wonder how people use it, because the way I've always understood it, it was like you're hearing me like it's a hearing tour. Right. But then I started wondering, are they using it like a parent uses it with a child? Like, listen to me. In other words, obey. Right. It's not like I'm here to listen to you, to hear you.

[00:09:50] I'm here to tell you this is what we're doing and this is how it's going to be, because I can't imagine people are going to walk in there and say, yeah, you know what? I haven't voted Democrat in a really long time, but I would consider doing it if you abandoned all of the LGBTQ platform. Right. They're not going to they're not going to listen to that. They're not going to do that. Yeah, I think you're exactly right. I mean, I think the main reason why you do something like that is a couple of things.

[00:10:15] One, you try to get a headline in the local newspaper with your picture on it. Yeah. And, you know, so, hey, I was here. And then you take a bunch of pictures that then next time the election season rolls around, you can put your photo out there and say, hey, I'm just like you. I was here. Well, and I thought you summed it up very well. A great line. You said it's getting harder to live one political identity in downtown Durham and another in Duplin County.

[00:10:42] Social media collapses the distance and voters see everything. Yeah, that's the and I think that's the issue is like you just mentioned. It may be good for photo op in the local paper or in a like, hey, remember when I visited you kind of a thing. But in the meantime, they're seeing all of these other tweets and Facebook posts and all of this other stuff for the for the rest of the year.

[00:11:07] And I guess that, you know, to bring it back to Jeff Jackson, that's that's the the the brilliance of what it is that he's doing. He's got to keep hammering his brand to these independent voters. Oh, yeah, absolutely. And the other interesting part is that local races are getting more and more nationalized. You know, I see we've got the municipal elections coming up this fall.

[00:11:31] And I'm seeing more and more candidates for these local offices running on national issues, which makes what the Democrats are trying to do even harder. Yeah. Andrew Dunn, you can read his work at LongleafPOL.com, Longleaf Politics. Also, he is a contributing columnist over at the Charlotte Observer and the Raleigh News and Observer. Andrew, always good to talk with you. I believe we are no show next week. So take next week off. All right. Well, I'll miss you.

[00:12:00] I'll miss you, too, Andrew. I appreciate that. Happy Independence Day to you as well. All right, buddy. Take care. All right. If you're listening to this show, you know, I try to keep up with all sorts of current events. And I know you do, too. And you probably heard me say, get your news from multiple sources. Why? Well, because it's how you detect media bias, which is why I've been so impressed with Ground News. It's an app and it's a website and it combines news from around the world in one place. So you can compare coverage and verify information.

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[00:12:56] Subscribe through that link and you'll get 15% off any subscription. I use the Vantage plan to get unlimited access to every feature. Your subscription then not only helps my podcast, but it also supports Ground News as they make the media landscape more transparent. Some breaking news. The Senate passed the Obababa, the one big beautiful bill act through reconciliation. It was a 51 to 50 vote. Yes.

[00:13:25] J.D. Vance, the vice president. Vance broke the tie. There were three Republican no votes. Rand Paul, Tom Tillis and Susan Collins. They voted no. And so Vance rather came in and broke the tie. And I believe now it's got to go get concurrence from the from the House. So we'll see how that goes. All righty.

[00:13:53] So back to Andrew Dunn's piece at the Charlotte Observer, because I want to use this as a bit of a springboard into another article from The New York Times. But this question of the Democrats identity crisis, it is acute here in North Carolina.

[00:14:11] But it is also throughout America where you've got the party that is I call it the Elysium Party sometimes because of the movie Elysium, which is E-L-Y-S-I-U-M. And if you don't know the movie, it's Matt Damon is in it, I believe. And it has this like the the Earth has become uninhabitable or almost uninhabitable, just really dry because, you know, climate change and all that.

[00:14:40] And but they still need all of the minerals and stuff mined off of the Earth. And all the rich people are up on like a. A climate controlled, like massive spaceship that just kind of circles around, you know, and. And so it's this this, you know, abject poverty and unimaginable wealth. Right.

[00:15:05] And that's what the Democrat Party is becoming and the people who have all of the wealth that are, you know, hovering above the lowlies on the planet. You know, they set the policies, they make the rules, they they they offer the direction and stuff. And the others are just sort of, you know, kept alive in order to keep, you know, cleaning their houses and picking their crops. I mean, I'm sorry, I mean, mining the mining the minerals and such.

[00:15:35] So that's very much the structure, as I see it, that the Democrat Party has right now. And all of the polling is confirming this, that basically the Obama voters migrated over to Donald Trump. And now the Republican Party has become the party of the working class. They have a lot more middle class, working class people that are in their their ranks now. And so this attempt that the North Carolina Democrat Party is making to win back rural voters.

[00:16:03] To me, is is sort of laughable because. It's not it's not for a poor slogan that you're losing these voters. Right. It's it's the policies. It's what you actually stand for. And this is one of the things that Democrats tell themselves is that people love our policies. It's just our messaging that isn't breaking through for some reason.

[00:16:31] Despite controlling the media and movies and music and all of these institutions right from schools. Through the through the cultural institutions of of entertainment and and sports and like all of these things. Despite all of this control, for some reason, our message just isn't getting through. And that's not it, guys. Your message is getting through. We hear it. We're just not listening to you.

[00:17:00] As I said with Andrew. Like there's a difference in the way these words are used, I think. And too often when people say, you know, we're listening or they need to listen to us. What they're saying is obey. They're not saying here because I have heard your messages. I have heard what you stand for. I have heard what you cheer for. So your booze mean nothing. Right. People have heard what you stand for.

[00:17:30] They can't avoid it. You've been pushing it for quite some time. We all hear what you're saying and we reject it. We just don't agree. So this rural listening tour. Anderson Clayton, the like the I think she's like 13 years old now, I think. Anyway, she's like the youngest Democrat Party chair in a state. And she says, we haven't just lost rural voters. We've lost rural Democrats. Yeah.

[00:18:00] Did you see what happened to Robeson County the other day? Like three of the Democrat County commissioners all flipped party affiliation. And Robeson County is still a majority Democrat county. They just don't vote that way. That's not a messaging problem. That's a you problem. Here's a great idea. How about making an escape to a really special and secluded getaway in western North Carolina? Just a quick drive up the mountain. And Cabins of Asheville is your connection.

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[00:19:22] Call or text 828-367-7068. Or check out all there is to offer at cabinsofashville.com and make memories that'll last a lifetime. Ray, welcome to the program. Hello, Ray. Hello again, Pete. What I was wanting to ask you is, I've heard it before said probably numerous times, this thing of they say it's,

[00:19:48] the reason they're not doing well is because it's their messaging and not their policies. Do you think, do you think they really can be that ignorant of things or do they really believe that themselves? Both. I think there are people that believe both of those, that either know that it's not the messaging and they're basically, like if they know that it's the policies that are unpopular, and then they say, well, it's not the policies are unpopular,

[00:20:18] it's the messaging, and we're not breaking through. Well, they're obviously lying if they know that not to be the case, right? And so I think there are some people that are in fact lying. And I think what they're trying to say there is also, you know, if only people would believe our lies, right? Like if, if we just figured out a better way to lie about what it is we're trying to do, then people would, would go along with it.

[00:20:47] But there are a lot of people in the Democrat camp, I think that, that do honestly believe that it's just messaging because it has the benefit of offloading any responsibility from themselves, right? They, there is, there is a motivated reasoning going on there, I think, where I don't want to be blamed for this failure. So I'm going to blame basically the voters for not getting what we're selling. But I'm going to wrap it up in this sort of package of, oh, it's totally my fault. I just, you know,

[00:21:17] I, I didn't communicate it clearly enough. It's the equivalent of, you know, I care too much. That's my biggest weakness is that I care too much. Yeah. It's just one of those things I think that, for them to really believe that they're trying to fool themselves. And, you know, they have to, I think if they want to really figure out what's wrong and correct their course, they need to wake up and smell the coffee. Well, this is, this is zero hour for them. They,

[00:21:46] and I don't have any confidence that they're actually going to be able to course correct. Uh, this election of this guy in the Democrat primary and, in the New York city mayor's race. Right. Uh, to me, this is, this is their inflection point. And the path that they choose right now is going to set the course for the national party, I think. And I was, I was thinking about that, uh, mayor, uh, candidate in New York city. Uh, I, I might be wrong,

[00:22:15] but I'm thinking he's going to get smoked pretty bad in the general. I'm not so sure. I'm not so sure. Especially if you've got Andrew Cuomo still in there and you've got, uh, the Republican guy, Curtis Sliwa, if he's still running and you got Eric Adams as an independent, you got four candidates and the anti Mamdani vote, uh, would be split, you know, three ways. Okay. You know, you might have a fair point there. Well, thanks a lot. Yes, sir. All right, man.

[00:22:45] Good to talk with you, Ray. I appreciate the call, sir. Um, and I am going to get to Mamdani. Yeah, I'm going to get, yeah, we're going to go, we're going to go on an anti commie ride today. So, uh, I want to, I want to get back to this New York times piece though. So this is by Shane Goldmacher, New York times from yesterday. And it starts off thusly. As he looks back at the defeat of former vice president Kamala Harris last fall,

[00:23:14] the thing that keeps bothering Andre Cherny, a one-time democratic speech writer and state party leader, is that he did not know what Ms. Harris would have done as president. If she had won the way he saw it, president Trump ran on his own ideas, but Ms. Harris only ran against Mr. Trump's. And he says, the oldest truism in politics is you can't beat something with nothing.

[00:23:45] And so now, Mr. Cherny, the co-founder of a nearly two decade old liberal policy journal, is organizing a group of Democrat thinkers. I just gave you a moment there to finish laughing before I continue a group of Democrat thinkers to recreate what Mr. Trump's allies did when he was voted out of office, which is to draft a ready made agenda for the next Democrat presidential nominee.

[00:24:14] And what are they calling it? Project 2029. I'm not kidding. Like, like he literally says that Trump ran on his own ideas and Harris just ran against Trump's.

[00:24:40] And so their response is to rip off the Heritage Foundation's project 2025, even down to the name. Guys, that's not your idea. Holy smokes. Project 2029. They plan to roll out an agenda over the next two years in quarterly installments. Oh, we got that going for us then, I guess, uh, through Mr. Cherny's publication, which is called democracy, a journal of ideas.

[00:25:09] The goal is to turn it into a book, just like project 2025, and to rally leading Democrat presidential candidates behind those ideas during the 2028 primary season. Uh, this also highlights the raging debate consuming Democrat lawmakers, strategists, and policymakers, whether, here it is,

[00:25:30] whether the root of the party's problem is its ideas or its difficulty in persuading people to embrace them. Right? Oh, no, it's definitely, yes, it's definitely the people not being persuaded. It has nothing to do with the quality of the ideas, you see. Guys, do you think maybe if your ideas were better, more people may be persuaded? It's easier to persuade people

[00:25:58] if their ideas you're trying to convince them of don't suck. Okay? How about that? Why don't you start there? But they won't. They won't. You know, stories are powerful. They help us make sense of things, to understand experiences. Stories connect us to the people of our past, while transcending generations. They help us process the meaning of life, and our stories are told through images and videos. Preserve your stories with Creative Video. Started in 1997 in Mint Hill, North Carolina,

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[00:26:57] all told through images. That's what your photos and videos are. They are your life, told through the eyes of everyone around you and all who came before you. And they will tell others to come who you are. Visit creativevideo.com. So the New York Times with a story about the Democrats' brilliant, brand new, completely novel idea to create Project 2029. The New York Times article, Democrats lay groundwork for a Project 2029.

[00:27:28] But there is a raging debate inside the Democrat Party about whether the root of the problem is their ideas or their difficulty in persuading people to embrace their terrible ideas. It's so difficult to figure this out. The surprise success of Assemblyman Zoran Mamdani, a Democrat socialist in the New York mayoral primary, has only added fuel to the debate.

[00:27:56] Did he succeed because of the audacity of his ideas like freezing the rent, free buses, and free childcare? Or because of the clarity and simplicity of those phrases? I can, okay. Democrats, here's some free advice for you. Everybody loves stuff for free. Yeah, you promise a bunch of Democrats living in a city free crap, they're going to vote for you. This is not a matter of,

[00:28:24] oh, he figured out a way to save free buses. No, because, spoiler alert, ain't no such thing as free. None of it's free. It's all got to be paid for. Many strategists see the party's issues as more style than substance because of course they would. Because if it's substance, then that means they have to change their ideas. And they don't want to do that. They're better than us.

[00:28:53] They care more about people. That's why they can't break free of this substance that they are trying to promote. So they comfort themselves with this idea that it's just style. That's the problem. They argue Democrats need to do a better job at packaging and delivering their plans to voters rather than crafting new proposals entirely. But others believe the party

[00:29:21] has been losing ground nationally because its ideas are stale, uninspiring, and unresponsive to the demands of today's voters. One of the people in charge, some of the newest blood possible, the freshest of fresh faces, Neera Tanden. Yes, that's who we need to breathe some life into this Democrat carcass. Neera Tanden, who served in the White House

[00:29:50] in the Clinton, Obama, and Biden administrations and now leads the Center for American Progress, she's part of a sizable advisory board for Project 2029 that includes other fresh faces like Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor under Biden. There are a bunch of others, Anne-Marie Slaughter, former president of the New America Foundation, a bunch of other people whose names are well known in the stale Democrat establishment. These are the freshest

[00:30:20] of the fresh faces. Some would-be allies, the Times goes on to say later, some would-be allies are skeptical that such an ideologically diverse and divergent set of policy minds could- Yes, they are all so, so diverse. Yes, all of these Democrat thinkers are ideologically diverse and divergent. And so there's skepticism

[00:30:49] that all of these diverse minds could craft anything close to a coherent agenda. Well, that is true. That part is true. I don't think they're going to be able to craft a coherent agenda because leftism is incoherent. Again, I've made this point many, many times over the years, which is I don't envy them having to defend some of these ideas because they are like literally indefensible. They are logically incoherent.

[00:31:18] So that's the first challenge, I guess. Adam Jentleson, this was Harry Reid's guy, he said developing policies by checking every coalitional box is how we got in this mess in the first place. Oh, that's true. He has spent recent months preparing to open a new think tank called Searchlight. There is no way to propose the kind of policies the Democrat party needs to adopt without hacking off some part of the interest group Borg.

[00:31:50] Well, so he has a bit of an incentive here too to crap on this idea because he has his own thing that he's trying to do that would, I guess, be seen as a competitor. And then the populist wing at its simplest seeks to redistribute power and wealth to the working class and away from economic and corporate elites and to mobilize voters through that fight. Meanwhile, you've got the establishment, the party's long-term success, the argument goes, will be determined

[00:32:20] by showing that liberalism works. So if you're the party of government, you have to make it plain that government can work and that's not really what populists do. All right, that'll do it for this episode. Thank you so much for listening. I could not do the show without your support and the support of the businesses that advertise on the podcast. So if you'd like, please support them too and tell them you heard it here. You can also become a patron at my Patreon page or go to thepcalendorshow.com. Again, thank you so much for listening and don't break anything while I'm gone.