Actual voters will determine the election?! (12-21-2023--Hour1)

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[00:00:36] All right, so this might seem pretty obvious, but I feel like it needs to be said. Voters are the ones that will actually determine electoral outcomes. Voters. And when you are asking people who they are going to vote for, the ones who are likely voters, in other words, those who have voted before and they have a history and a propensity of voting,

[00:01:06] they are better to ask than people who are simply registered to vote because simply being registered to vote does not mean you actually ever go vote. So this, I know it seems pretty obvious, right? But this obvious truism seems to be, I seem to need to restate it because the other day we were going over a New York Times poll

[00:01:31] and New York Times Siena College National Survey that was released that made a big deal about young people who were not interested in voting for Joe Biden because of his stance on Israel. And I went over Jim Garrity's National Review. Jim Garrity went deep into the cross tabs, as they're called.

[00:01:55] You go into the back of the polling and reputable firms, reputable pollsters will give you the questions and show you what the questions, how they ask them, and they'll break down all the percentages. So those are all, it's all the cross tabs in the back, like an appendix. And when you actually read some of the questions that they were asked, they were like specifically asked, what are the biggest issues for you?

[00:02:22] What is the most important problem facing the country? And only 1% of the respondents said the Middle East or Israel or the Palestinians, 1%. And when you're looking at the younger demographic, it was only 3%. So this isn't, like to me, this isn't really, that's not proof. It's not even really evidence.

[00:02:49] I mean, it's an interesting piece of data, but it doesn't prove anything. And it's just kind of out there. But the New York Times frames their entire story around this concept that Biden's support of Israel is hurting him with young voters. So if you go to the New York Times story, and it's written by Nate Cohn,

[00:03:14] he says, for the first time, Mr. Trump leads President Biden among young voters in a Times-Siena national survey, 49% to 43%. It's enough to give him a narrow 46-44 lead among registered voters overall. And then they blamed it on Joe's Israel support, which is kind of weird.

[00:03:37] Why, like, why would the youth vote go vote for Donald Trump on Israel, the guy who moved the embassy to, right, Jerusalem, right? Why would they, maybe they're just ignorant. That's possible, too. I mean, I don't want to give him too much credit. But why would all of these young people leave Joe Biden and go to Donald Trump over the issue of Israel? But did you catch the, um, did you catch the types of voters? Registered.

[00:04:07] Registered voters. He goes on to say, you might think, not likely voters, but registered voters. He goes on to say, you might think that young voters with these progressive or even left-wing views would be among the most likely to stick with Biden. At least for now, that's not the case. The young Biden 2020 voters with anti-Israel views are the likeliest to report switching to Mr. Trump.

[00:04:36] So now this is a different cohort they're talking about. Young voters who voted for Biden in 2020, they're now supposedly switching to Donald Trump over the issue of Israel. Specifically, Joe Biden not demanding a ceasefire, right? Specifically, Joe Biden giving Israel a free hand to do whatever it wants to do. Here are some other findings, though, out of this poll.

[00:05:03] Even though he trails among registered voters, Mr. Biden actually leads Mr. Trump in our first measure of the 2024 likely electorate. 47 to 45 percent. So the headline here, right, is what? That Biden is under water. Donald Trump is going to whip him. But that's with the registered voters.

[00:05:30] When you look at the likely voters, that has completely flipped. If you're a close reader of this newsletter, Nate Cohn goes on to say, this might not come completely out of nowhere. Our polls have consistently shown Biden doing better among highly regular and engaged voters, especially those who voted in the last midterm election.

[00:05:54] In those polls, the most heavily Republican voters have been those who voted in 2020, but not 2022. It helps explain why Democrats keep doing so well in low turnout special elections, even though they struggle in polls of registered voters or just adults.

[00:06:14] That's another demographic that you'll see sometimes they'll just they'll do a poll and they'll just ask adults, which is even less useful than registered voters. The adult. Well, I'll say this. The adults. One is that's helpful for like right direction, wrong direction. You know, are you optimistic about the future of the country or the economy like those? Those types of surveys are fine.

[00:06:38] But when you're doing polling on an individual candidate, adults is even less useful than registered voters. And that's not as useful as likely voters. But in this particular poll, the split isn't just between midterm and non midterm voters. Get this. It's between people who voted in 2020's general election and those who did not. Right. So go back to the Trump versus Biden 2020 election.

[00:07:04] Biden leads by six points among voters who participated in 2020. Trump holds a 22 point lead among those who did not vote. So who cares? Who cares among those who if you are not going to go vote? Think about that.

[00:07:30] Donald Trump holds a 22 point lead among people who did not vote in 2020. Needless to say, non voters are not as likely to vote in 2024. And that's why Biden is ahead among the likely voters. I do have to say, I have to wonder. Did Trump's campaign to persuade people that their votes don't matter? Has that been working?

[00:08:00] Right. I mean, the constant attacking of the early voting and absentee voting, like all of these different mechanisms that exist. And this push inside the Trump world. And because the Republican Party does not sign on to this. You know, we should only be voting on Election Day. OK, well, we don't have that system anymore. You can vote early and you can vote by absentee mail.

[00:08:28] So why wouldn't you take advantage of those opportunities? Because from a party organization standpoint, you can bank as many early votes as possible. And that's how Fetterman won up in Pennsylvania. They banked hundreds of thousands of votes before Election Day because they knew that, you know, the guy had brain damage from the stroke and they couldn't trot him around everywhere. So they had to kind of keep him under wraps.

[00:08:54] So they just banked a whole bunch of votes and just kind of, you know, held their breath and waited. And maybe nobody will notice it's so bad, which, by the way, he has been getting better. So, yeah. So, I mean, which is a good thing. And I think it's funny now he's now saying I'm not a progressive, even though he said multiple times during the campaign that he was a progressive. Now he's saying he's not a progressive.

[00:09:17] And so I think there's something to be said there where, like, you know, man with stroke, brain damage now starts recovering and all of a sudden, you know, no longer a progressive. I think there's something to be said for that transitioning. But, yeah, people who don't vote do not affect election outcomes. And maybe telling people their votes don't matter becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. I don't believe that, by the way. Every vote counts.

[00:09:46] You want everybody to go vote. Now, there are some cautions that the New York Times warns here. Previous polling, for example, has not shown anything this extreme. It doesn't mean this panel is wrong. This polling is wrong. But our sample of the 2020 non-voters only has 296 respondents. That is a sample that is too small for any serious conclusions.

[00:10:15] So, like, why are you even running this poll then? Why are you even publishing the results of this thing? Also, the people who voted in 2020 reported backing Biden over Trump by 10 points. In reality, Biden won by 4.5. So, are you oversampling there? Now, maybe there's a reason that people are less likely to report backing Trump in the poll.

[00:10:38] Because they have a series of questions in the poll before they get to these questions where they're asking about Trump's legal battles, whether he committed crimes, whether he'll be convicted, whether he's going to go to jail. And so, when you ask at the very end of the survey how they voted in 2020, people who may have voted for Trump may not want to say they voted for Trump because you just asked them all these questions about how bad he is. Right? How you ask the questions matters.

[00:11:06] The reason why I brought back this New York Times poll today is I'm not so sure that we're not being gaslit on a couple of different fronts here. Number one is on the polling. Because what I learned in 2016 is I cannot trust the polling. So, I read some of these stories. I read some of the crosstabs.

[00:11:32] You read some of the analysis about how they got some of the answers. And I'm not sure if these provide a lot of value.

[00:11:40] But I don't know how you get to blaming the president's position on Israel for why young people that apparently did not vote or even some who did in the 2020 election that somehow or another they're moving away from Joe Biden and over to Donald Trump just purely based on Israel. I mean, it's not like Biden is sending U.S. troops over to Israel.

[00:12:10] So, I'm not clear why Donald Trump would be the better choice than Joe Biden if you are a young progressive. If you're a young leftist, why are you like, oh, you know, I hate the way Biden is responding. But I think Donald Trump is going to respond way better because he's like the pro-Hamas candidate or something. Like, that doesn't make any sense. So, I feel like I'm getting gaslit on that. So, is it Joe Biden's position on Israel?

[00:12:36] Or could it be, as Jim Garrity went over in this post at National Review the other day, immigration and the economy, right? So, you got Israel. You got illegal immigration. You got the economy. You got the corruption stuff. And you got crime. And we're going to cover all of it today. Because why not? Merry Christmas. Let me start with this topic of Israel. Ahmet Al-Khalut.

[00:13:06] The manager of a hospital. The Kamal Adnan Hospital in northern Gaza. He admits in an interrogation that the Israelis have released, the video of, that Hamas used the medical facilities to advance its military operations. This is the manager of the Kamal Adnan Hospital. He says, quote,

[00:13:34] I know 16 employees in the hospital. Doctors, nurses, paramedics, and clerks, who also have different positions in the Qassam brigades. But, Khalud also told Israel's Shin Bet, that's the security forces, referred to the military of Hamas, that they hide in hospitals because, for them, a hospital is a safe place.

[00:14:02] He says Hamas won't be targeted when they are inside a hospital. That they will not be harmed when they are inside a hospital. Hamas has offices inside the hospitals. There are places for senior officials. They also brought a kidnapped soldier there. This is direct quotes from Ahmet Al-Khalut. Oh, by the way, he also acknowledged that he's a Hamas commander himself. Yeah. He has the rank of brigadier general.

[00:14:32] It's not called that. It's called something else. But he says he was recruited into Hamas in 2010. He says there's a designated place for interrogations, internal security, and special forces all inside the hospital. Everyone has private phone lines inside the hospital as well.

[00:14:53] He tells a story at one point of how he begged Hamas to take a wounded man to the Indonesian hospital, to Shifa, the Shifa hospital, for treatment. And they refused. He said their mission is more important. The leaders of Hamas are cowards. They left us out in the open while they hide in hideouts. They destroyed us.

[00:15:16] Khalut has been quoted extensively across global media outlets, including Reuters, NBC News, Al Jazeera. He was seen as a reliable source talking about the state of Gaza's medical infrastructure. He's Hamas. He acknowledges, he admits he is a brigadier general in Hamas, the manager of the hospital.

[00:15:44] The guy that was, you know, talking about how bad stuff is or how wrong this action was or how nobody is in these hospitals, right? He knew otherwise. He was lying. His detainment last week by the Israeli military, the Hamas-run Palestinian health ministry demanded his release afterwards, along with other health officials.

[00:16:07] By the way, the IDF, the Israeli Defense Forces, they have also released the videos of the tunnel system that's under Al Shifa hospital. And that's now also confirmed by media outlets, including the New York Times. Hamas is threatening to kill all of the remaining hostages.

[00:16:29] And they say they will not enter into any other negotiations for hostage release with Israel unless they stop the war. So that's now their demand. You have to stop the war to let us regroup or else you don't get any of your hostages back. Oh, and then there's the Red Cross. All right.

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[00:17:41] So less than two weeks ago, Hamas threatened to kill all of its remaining hostages if demands like more aid for Gaza and prisoner exchanges were not met after they've been suffering repeated losses on the battlefield. The Palestinian terror group is still holding the bodies of 20 hostages who died in captivity. They're not even turning over the bodies.

[00:18:10] The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said that of the 137 hostages believed to still be in Hamas custody, 20 are dead. More than 100 were freed in the earlier rounds of the prisoner swaps. Now you've got Hamas saying they're not going to do any more of those unless Israel stops the fighting, which they're not going to do.

[00:18:34] So this has raised questions as to whether or not any of the hostages are even still alive. There was also a report I saw yesterday that, you know, the woman, remember the woman who was kidnapped and put on the back of the motorcycle and driven away from the music festival? Apparently that was not Hamas. Those were just Palestinian civilians that kidnapped her.

[00:19:02] So meanwhile, you have these hostages and there is there are some organizations and individuals that could could provide some proof of life. Right. Right. Like the Red Cross, for example. This is kind of their jam. Right. They're supposed to be the ones that you call upon to help negotiate as a neutral party. Right.

[00:19:27] To to go in and just to provide medical treatment or to help or to get proof of life, that sort of thing. Right. And the Israelis have been they've been a little disappointed in the way the Red Cross has behaved because they they have not been willing, apparently, to to go in and to render aid to the hostages. So they called a big meeting.

[00:19:53] They started applying pressure to the International Red Cross and they got a meeting. The Israeli foreign minister, Eli Cohen, health minister, Uriel Basso met with the president of the Red Cross, Mariana Spoliaritz. And she also finally met with representatives of families with members held captive by Hamas in Gaza.

[00:20:16] The Israeli ministers urged the Red Cross president to promptly visit the abductees held by Hamas, stressing the urgent need for medical assistance to those in need. Eli Cohen, the foreign minister of Israel, said for 67 days, the Red Cross has failed in its mission to reach the abductees, deliver proof of life, check their condition and provide them with essential medicines.

[00:20:44] Every passing day is a further failure of the Red Cross. We demand immediate action from the Red Cross without delay. Use all their channels to visit all of the abductees. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also met yesterday with the International Committee of the Red Cross president, Mariana Spoliaritz, urging her organization to publicly pressure Hamas. And she said basically no.

[00:21:15] She said, well, here, you can take a listen yourself. You have every every every every right and every expectation to to place public pressure, public pressure. Come on. It's not going to work because if the more public pressure we seemingly would do, the more they would shut the door. Well, I'm not sure. Yes, they would. They would. Well, why don't you try? Why don't you try?

[00:21:45] The more she says, the more public pressure we put on them, the more they close the door, the more they more likely they would shut the door. And Netanyahu disagrees and says, why don't you try? You haven't even tried. You're not applying any pressure and they haven't done anything in weeks now. The Red Cross is getting sued.

[00:22:09] Raz Ben Ami, 57 years old, a German-Israeli hostage, was released after 54 days in Hamas captivity. Raz was kidnapped along with her husband, Ohad, who remains in Gaza as a hostage. They were they were kidnapped from their home in Kibbutz Berry.

[00:22:33] During their captivity, the family requested assistance from the International Committee of the Red Cross. Now I'm hearing a echo in the line. So they asked for help from the Red Cross in transferring vital medication as Raz is fighting brain tumors. Israeli media reported that the Ben Amis are now suing the organization that they say rejected their inquiries.

[00:23:01] According to the lawsuit, the family appealed to the International Red Cross representatives in Israel, Germany and in the U.S. but received nothing more than an email wishing them luck, quote, reconnecting with your loved ones. There is an Israeli civil rights organization called Shurat Hadin. It filed a lawsuit in the Jerusalem District Court accusing the Red Cross of not standing up to its responsibilities

[00:23:29] in assisting the hostages that Hamas took, namely by not providing the medication it had on hand. Like, if the Red Cross is able to get access to the hostages, why wouldn't you pass along the meds? The founder and the president of the civil rights organization stated that the International Red Cross is reliving its mistakes of the Holocaust when it abandoned the Jewish people in its darkest period in history.

[00:23:58] We cannot accept this disregard and disrespect for human life just because they are Jewish. Meanwhile, Voice of America has finally been forced to use the word terrorist when describing Hamas. Voice of America has now rescinded a rule that actually prohibited their reporters from referring to members of Hamas as terrorists.

[00:24:28] National Review started applying pressure to Voice of America after they discovered the policy's existence. And that prompted Republican lawmakers to start applying pressure to the VOA, the Voice of America, because the initial guidance was issued right after the October 7th attacks.

[00:24:52] And senior editors from the U.S. government outlet, the Voice of America, right, this is taxpayer-funded media, they instructed the editorial staff to avoid calling Hamas and its members terrorists. And if you had to use the word, you could put it in quotes. So like, okay, if somebody says it, you could put it, or maybe scare quotes, you could do that. The VOA leadership explained that referring directly to groups as terrorists would demonize people.

[00:25:23] And we don't want to demonize anybody. For two months, Voice of America and the U.S. Agency for Global Media, the federal body that oversees the Voice of America, they defended their policy. They changed an Israeli journalist's report on the terrorist attack to remove the word terrorists when talking about Hamas. VOA's leadership now says, okay, that was a mistake.

[00:25:47] The acting director, a guy named John Lipman, announced the change in a memo saying that they were correcting the guidance that they had issued back in October. He says, we can now use the word terrorist when identifying people or organizations that commit acts of terror. Which, yes, of course you can.

[00:26:14] Terrorists use violence against civilians to advance a political or ideological agenda. By definition, the taking of civilians as hostages, the targeted killing of civilians on 10-7, those are acts of terrorism. The people who commit those acts are, by definition, terrorists. Right? One of the Republican lawmakers said that the VOA's taxpayer-funded leadership directed the VOA staff

[00:26:41] not to refer to Hamas and its members as terrorists, or that the White House bureau chief essentially urged VOA employees to adopt Hamas' propaganda that its barbarous terrorism was, quote, retaliation for Israel's decades-long occupation. The rot runs deep. Let's go to the... We'll go to the phone lines. Yeah, let's see. What do we got here? This is Gil. Welcome to the program. Gil. Hey, bud. Hey.

[00:27:11] I tell you, man, I appreciate your show, man. In fact, I love about every show on WBT. But I think... I guess I call it the Billy Jack response. They need to... The Israeli government needs to say, okay, go ahead and kill the hostages, and then we will kill you. And not just Hamas. I mean all of the...

[00:27:40] I'm forgetting her name there. All the Palestinian people. And then what I would say, and we have the power to do that, and what you Palestinian people need to do is rise up against Hamas and take them out of power. You've got 30 days. And then during that 30 days, do all kinds of maneuvers, drop a bunch of airborne Moabs that, you know, will cause dust storms from hell

[00:28:07] over there and all that, and make them know that this is what's going to happen to you in 30 days if you don't take Hamas out, and we're just going to take out all the Palestinians. So I don't think that's a viable path, only for the fact that the Palestinians have really no way to rise up because Hamas has ruled over them. So even if they wanted to do that, I don't know how they could actually go about doing so.

[00:28:36] And I'm not so sure enough of them would want to rise up. So, like, that's the first problem with it. The second problem is the world public opinion. Israel is walking a fine line here in that there's a propaganda war going on against them worldwide, and if they are perceived to go too far, they lose support among the Western societies, and if that happens, then you end up with the other surrounding Arab nations

[00:29:06] that then would have cover to join in. And that is what you do not want to see happen. Well, that is true, but, I mean, Israel is one of the most powerful nations on Earth. They are damn near as powerful as we are. Well, I don't know. There's only like 8 million people, I think, over there. And so, and you've got Pakistan. They've got a nuclear bomb, right? Iran's working on one.

[00:29:34] Nowhere near advanced is what Israel is, because, like I say, Israel, in fact, they're such a secretive country, it wouldn't surprise me if they have even more advanced stuff than we do. I doubt it. I think we gave them like all of the stuff that they've got. But the, because they, remember, nobody was supposed to even know that they had it. Everybody always played coy, like, oh, we can't confirm or deny, and then I think Carter a couple years back let slip that, oh yeah, they totally have it.

[00:30:04] So, yeah, I mean, everybody knows they've got nuclear weapons, but there comes a point where if you're getting attacked on so many fronts, you may not even be able to launch them, you know? Because they, like, this is, if it gets out of control, this is an existential threat to them, and they would go nuclear. How could they not, right? If everybody in your country is going to die if you don't win the war, everything is on the table. Everything.

[00:30:33] So that's why you don't want it to get out of hand. I mean, assure destruction. Yeah. Yeah, but that's the thing. You're trying to reason with people who view that as the preferred course, because they go straight to heaven as a martyr. There's nothing you can offer them in this world. Yeah, that's true, but I don't know, and I forget what they called them back in the biblical times, but when the wars went on between the Muslims and the Christians and all that,

[00:31:02] what the Christians did to win that war, because there were killings on both, of course, I know all there was back then was swords and spears and all that, but what the Christians did to finally win that war is every one of them that they killed that were Muslim, they wrapped them and covered them with bacon grease or pork and wrapped them in pork and said, your soul's never going to make it to heaven. Right. I've heard of similar stories.

[00:31:31] I don't know how much of them are true, but I have heard those similar types of stories where you play into their faith, you use their faith against them. Now, again, you do that when you are in an existential battle, and we're not there yet. I don't know if Israel is there yet right now. I think, like I said, they're trying to walk this line. Gil, I appreciate the call. That's why I say, if you start saying, we're going to wipe out every single Palestinian,

[00:32:00] now you're giving ammo, rhetorically speaking, you're giving ammo to all of these people marching in the streets that are claiming you're committing genocide, even though the population of the Palestinian territories has been constantly growing. The Jews are the worst, apparently, at doing genocide of people. And so if you say, well, we're going to kill every single one of them, then you're communicating proof that you are genocidal.

[00:32:30] And now you turn the tide against you. And once that happens, if you lose the Western world's desire or willingness to back you, then that opens the door for Iran and its proxies and other Arab states to cleanse the land from the river to the sea, as all of these leftists and Marxists have been chanting in the streets. And that's the, I mean, that's the root of it, right?

[00:32:58] The issue is never the issue. The issue is always the revolution. The Palestinian cause is now the, that's the in-fashion issue. Just for now, some, you know, in a couple years or a couple months, it'll be something else because it always is. One of the largest left-wing dark money networks has funneled more than $10 million to anti-Israel causes over the past five years. The New York Post had this story

[00:33:28] a couple weeks ago. Arabella Advisors, you've heard of them, right? Washington, D.C.-based progressive group. It funds all sorts of progressive non-profits through its fund. It's called the New Venture Fund. They've got one called the Hopewell Fund. They've got the 1630 Fund. They've got the North Fund, the Windward Fund. They got a lot of funds. And they have given almost $11 million total

[00:33:58] to anti-Israel groups over the last five years. The largest share went to NEO Philanthropy. They collected over $5 million from four of the five funds over these years, these five years. NEO Philanthropy runs a project founded by Linda Sarsour. Remember that name?

[00:34:26] That anti-Semitic activist, Linda Sarsour? Her project is called M-Power Change. The letter M and then the letter P capitalized M-Power. M-Power Change. She circulated false information from Hamas that that missile hit the hospital. Remember that? And then all of the pro-Hamas and pro-Palestinian people, they were like, or anti-Israel people and anti-Semites and they were all like,

[00:34:56] no, no, that was the Israeli airstrike. That was not Hamas. That was not Hamas. And then, yeah, confirmed it's Hamas. They were shooting off a bunch of rockets. The group also promoted a Democratic Socialist of America led rally in New York City where protesters displayed Nazi swastikas and other anti-Semitic signs. There's another activist group called One Arizona. That's gotten 2.3 million from New Venture Fund, Hopewell Fund,

[00:35:26] Winward Fund. Let's see here, what else we have? Oh, the Alliance for Youth Action. They've taken 2.2 million from 1630 Fund. The Black Alliance for Just Immigration, they received 400,000 in over two years. The Alliance for Global Justice took in 473,000. The Washington Examiner first reported on terror links

[00:35:56] between the Alliance for Global Justice and a terrorist group called Samadun. MasterCard, Visa, American Express, and PayPal all banned Samadun from their payment processing services. But that wasn't enough evidence for the Alliance for Global Justice. What else here? Oh, Grassroots for Global Justice funneled money to organizations like the Palestinian Youth Movement that celebrated

[00:36:24] the October 7th attack. Talking about like, they have tanks, but we got hang gliders. The If Not Now Movement, Council on American Islamic Relations, Education for a Liberation Network, Muslims for Progressive Values. They're just awash in this money. These leftist organizations funding all of this because again, it's not this issue. It's the revolution. is a nation. The If Not Now Movement is a nation. The If Not Now Movement